PYPL is sitting at the intersection of a completed technical base, a live acquisition bid, and disclosed buying from some of the sharpest names in the market. Worth breaking down.━━ THE CHART ━━
Monthly: PYPL round-tripped from its $310 ATH (2021) down toward $38. Everything from the top into early 2026 was bear-market grind — the slow bleed that precedes a real capitulation, not a base.
The actual base started in February 2026, when the stock flushed to $38-40 on a CEO change and a weak earnings print. That's the capitulation candle. Since then, price has repeatedly defended the $40 zone and built real structure.
Watching for a pullback into the $48-50 zone for an entry, with a stop below the swing low.
━━ THE ACQUISITION STORY ━━
Stripe + Advent International submitted a joint offer on July 15: $60.50/share, ~$53B deal, backed by $50B in committed financing. Stock jumped 16-17% on the news.
▸ PayPal's board reportedly views the bid as inadequate
▸ Prediction markets on deal completion: jumped from ~10% to 77% within days
▸ Independent activist-target speculation (Gordon Haskett) predates the bid itself
━━ WHO WAS ALREADY POSITIONED ━━
Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management) opened a ~3.5% position in April 2026 near $49, adding through Q1 — directly into the post-capitulation base. His publicly stated thesis at the time: PayPal was priced cheap enough (7-8x earnings) to attract "both PE firms and strategic acquirers." That's exactly what materialized three months later.
Post-bid, Burry has stated $60.50 is too low and he isn't selling.
Separately, disclosed congressional trading shows a member of the House Financial Services Committee building a position in the same March 2026 window, in the same $38-45 price band Burry was buying.
When a value investor with a documented pre-bid thesis and a lawmaker on the relevant committee are both accumulating in the same window, ahead of the same catalyst, it's a confluence worth noting.
━━ THE FUNDAMENTALS ━━
This isn't purely a deal-speculation trade. The underlying business supports the valuation independent of any acquisition:
▸ TTM P/E: ~8-10x vs PYPL's own 5-year average of ~27x
▸ Forward P/E: ~7.8-8.9x
▸ Revenue (TTM): $33.7B | Net income: $5.06B | FCF: $5.5B
▸ ROE: 25% | ROIC: 23%
▸ Next earnings: July 28
A business generating that level of free cash flow, trading at a third of its historical multiple, doesn't need a takeover to be interesting
━━ THE SETUP ━━
Completed capitulation + base + live bid + fundamental discount + informed buying in the same window. Multiple independent threads pointing the same direction.
Looking to enter around 48-50, with a long term positional mentality on this trade
━━
Educational content. Not financial advice. Investing carries risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.