Pembelian
QBTS / D-Wave Quantum: Wave 2 Retest Before a Potential Impulsiv
Market Context
QBTS is showing a highly volatile but technically meaningful structure on the daily chart. After the strong impulsive advance into the 46.50 USD area, price entered a deep multi-month correction that appears to have bottomed in April 2026 near 12.885 USD. This level is marked as the key invalidation area on the chart and currently acts as the structural origin of the preferred bullish wave count.
Since that low, the market has developed a more constructive sequence. Price reclaimed the VWAP area, broke above the descending corrective trendline, and then advanced sharply into 31.237 USD. The current pullback should therefore not automatically be treated as bearish. In the preferred Elliott Wave interpretation, it can be read as a classic Wave 2 retracement within a newly developing bullish impulse.
The important point is that QBTS remains a very speculative quantum-computing stock. The chart can move aggressively when momentum returns, but false breakouts and deep retracements are part of the normal risk profile. This makes confirmation levels and invalidation levels especially important.
Fundamental Context
From a fundamental perspective, D-Wave remains an early-stage, high-growth, high-volatility quantum-computing name. Recent quarterly reporting highlighted the same tension the chart reflects: near-term revenue remains limited and uneven, while bookings and market expectations around quantum adoption continue to drive speculative interest.
That combination explains the technical behavior. The market is not pricing QBTS like a mature cash-flow compounder. It is pricing optionality, sector momentum, order-flow expectations, and the possibility of future commercial acceleration. For the chart, this means that fundamental catalysts can accelerate breakouts, but they should not replace technical confirmation.
Elliott Wave Count
The preferred count treats the 12.885 USD low as the completion of a larger corrective phase. The following rally into 31.237 USD can be counted as a five-wave impulsive structure and is therefore plausibly labeled as Wave 1 of a new bullish sequence.
The current decline from 31.237 USD is best interpreted as Wave 2. This pullback is correcting directly into a classic Fibonacci retracement zone:
50.0% retracement: 22.382 USD
61.8% retracement: 20.126 USD
78.6% retracement: 16.913 USD
As long as price remains above the origin of Wave 1 at 12.885 USD, the Wave 2 interpretation remains valid under Elliott Wave rules. From a practical trading perspective, however, the quality of the bullish setup is much stronger if price can stabilize above 20.126 USD, or at least above 16.913 USD.
The count is currently rule-compliant:
Wave 2 has not moved below the origin of Wave 1 at 12.885 USD.
A potential Wave 3 is not confirmed until price breaks above 31.237 USD.
A target zone around 50.10 to 57.27 USD would give Wave 3 enough distance so that it would not become the shortest of Waves 1, 3, and 5.
A later Wave 4 should ideally remain above the Wave 1 high at 31.237 USD to avoid problematic overlap in a standard impulse structure.
Key Levels
Current Decision Zone
Price is trading near 22.760 USD on the screenshot, directly around the 50.0% retracement at 22.382 USD. This is a typical first reaction area for a Wave 2 pullback. A stabilization here would be constructive, but it still needs confirmation through a strong bullish daily candle, improving volume, or a break above short-term lower highs.
Important Supports
22.382 USD: 50.0% retracement and first active support zone.
20.126 USD: 61.8% retracement and a key Wave 2 support area.
16.913 USD: 78.6% retracement and the last major retracement support before the structure weakens materially.
15.00 to 16.00 USD: VWAP-related structure and former breakout area.
12.885 USD: formal invalidation level of the preferred bullish count.
Important Resistance and Trigger Levels
24.50 to 26.00 USD: short-term reclaim zone that would help stabilize the pullback.
31.237 USD: central confirmation level. A new Wave 3 is only confirmed above this high.
46.50 to 46.80 USD: previous major high and higher-timeframe resistance zone.
50.10 USD: visible 1.618 Fibonacci extension on the chart.
57.27 USD: visible 2.0 Fibonacci extension and upper projection target.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario remains preferred as long as QBTS can stabilize the current correction above the 61.8% retracement at 20.126 USD. A clean reversal impulse from the 22.38 to 20.13 USD zone would be the first sign that Wave 2 is maturing and that buyers are stepping back in.
The decisive confirmation, however, only comes above 31.237 USD. A daily close above that level would resolve the current pullback structure to the upside and activate the potential Wave 3 scenario. In that case, the first upside target would be the former high zone around 46.50 to 46.80 USD, followed by the Fibonacci extension cluster between 50.10 and 57.27 USD.
The strongest bullish signal would be a breakout above 31.237 USD with expanding daily candles and rising volume. That would indicate that the current decline was indeed a Wave 2 correction rather than the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.
Bearish / Alternative Scenario
The alternative scenario becomes more relevant if price loses the 20.126 USD zone with momentum. In that case, a deeper test of the 78.6% retracement at 16.913 USD would become likely. The market would need to react clearly from that area to keep the larger bullish structure credible.
A sustained break below 16.913 USD would significantly weaken the quality of the Wave 2 count. The formal Elliott Wave invalidation would still be below 12.885 USD, but from a practical trading perspective, such a deep retracement would already be a clear warning signal.
Below 12.885 USD, the preferred bullish count is invalidated. The move from 12.885 USD to 31.237 USD would then no longer qualify as a reliable Wave 1 foundation and would be better interpreted as a corrective recovery inside a larger sideways or bearish structure.
Trading Interpretation
From a trader's perspective, QBTS is not in a blind buy zone. It is in a decision zone. The technical setup is interesting, but not yet confirmed. Price is trading exactly where a Wave 2 can typically find buyers, while momentum after the pullback has not yet turned clearly bullish again.
Aggressive traders would watch the 22.38 to 20.13 USD area for reversal signals: bullish daily candles, higher lows on lower timeframes, improving volume, or a quick reclaim of 24.50 to 26.00 USD. More conservative traders would likely wait for a break above 31.237 USD, because that is where the Wave 3 thesis becomes structurally confirmed.
The risk-reward profile improves if buyers visibly defend the current support zone. It deteriorates quickly if price breaks below 20.126 USD and fails to reclaim it. The key requirement here is patience. QBTS has upside potential, but the chart still demands confirmation.
Conclusion
QBTS is trading at a technically important decision point. The preferred Elliott Wave count treats the rally from 12.885 USD to 31.237 USD as a new Wave 1 and the current pullback as Wave 2. As long as the 22.38 to 20.13 USD area is defended, a bullish continuation toward 31.237 USD and later 46.50 to 57.27 USD remains plausible.
The outlook weakens if price loses the deeper retracement zones. Below 16.913 USD, the risk of a more complex correction increases significantly. Below 12.885 USD, the preferred bullish count is invalidated.
In short: the chart is constructive, but not confirmed yet. The next strong signal will come either from a clear stabilization inside the current Wave 2 zone or from a decisive breakout above 31.237 USD.
QBTS is showing a highly volatile but technically meaningful structure on the daily chart. After the strong impulsive advance into the 46.50 USD area, price entered a deep multi-month correction that appears to have bottomed in April 2026 near 12.885 USD. This level is marked as the key invalidation area on the chart and currently acts as the structural origin of the preferred bullish wave count.
Since that low, the market has developed a more constructive sequence. Price reclaimed the VWAP area, broke above the descending corrective trendline, and then advanced sharply into 31.237 USD. The current pullback should therefore not automatically be treated as bearish. In the preferred Elliott Wave interpretation, it can be read as a classic Wave 2 retracement within a newly developing bullish impulse.
The important point is that QBTS remains a very speculative quantum-computing stock. The chart can move aggressively when momentum returns, but false breakouts and deep retracements are part of the normal risk profile. This makes confirmation levels and invalidation levels especially important.
Fundamental Context
From a fundamental perspective, D-Wave remains an early-stage, high-growth, high-volatility quantum-computing name. Recent quarterly reporting highlighted the same tension the chart reflects: near-term revenue remains limited and uneven, while bookings and market expectations around quantum adoption continue to drive speculative interest.
That combination explains the technical behavior. The market is not pricing QBTS like a mature cash-flow compounder. It is pricing optionality, sector momentum, order-flow expectations, and the possibility of future commercial acceleration. For the chart, this means that fundamental catalysts can accelerate breakouts, but they should not replace technical confirmation.
Elliott Wave Count
The preferred count treats the 12.885 USD low as the completion of a larger corrective phase. The following rally into 31.237 USD can be counted as a five-wave impulsive structure and is therefore plausibly labeled as Wave 1 of a new bullish sequence.
The current decline from 31.237 USD is best interpreted as Wave 2. This pullback is correcting directly into a classic Fibonacci retracement zone:
50.0% retracement: 22.382 USD
61.8% retracement: 20.126 USD
78.6% retracement: 16.913 USD
As long as price remains above the origin of Wave 1 at 12.885 USD, the Wave 2 interpretation remains valid under Elliott Wave rules. From a practical trading perspective, however, the quality of the bullish setup is much stronger if price can stabilize above 20.126 USD, or at least above 16.913 USD.
The count is currently rule-compliant:
Wave 2 has not moved below the origin of Wave 1 at 12.885 USD.
A potential Wave 3 is not confirmed until price breaks above 31.237 USD.
A target zone around 50.10 to 57.27 USD would give Wave 3 enough distance so that it would not become the shortest of Waves 1, 3, and 5.
A later Wave 4 should ideally remain above the Wave 1 high at 31.237 USD to avoid problematic overlap in a standard impulse structure.
Key Levels
Current Decision Zone
Price is trading near 22.760 USD on the screenshot, directly around the 50.0% retracement at 22.382 USD. This is a typical first reaction area for a Wave 2 pullback. A stabilization here would be constructive, but it still needs confirmation through a strong bullish daily candle, improving volume, or a break above short-term lower highs.
Important Supports
22.382 USD: 50.0% retracement and first active support zone.
20.126 USD: 61.8% retracement and a key Wave 2 support area.
16.913 USD: 78.6% retracement and the last major retracement support before the structure weakens materially.
15.00 to 16.00 USD: VWAP-related structure and former breakout area.
12.885 USD: formal invalidation level of the preferred bullish count.
Important Resistance and Trigger Levels
24.50 to 26.00 USD: short-term reclaim zone that would help stabilize the pullback.
31.237 USD: central confirmation level. A new Wave 3 is only confirmed above this high.
46.50 to 46.80 USD: previous major high and higher-timeframe resistance zone.
50.10 USD: visible 1.618 Fibonacci extension on the chart.
57.27 USD: visible 2.0 Fibonacci extension and upper projection target.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario remains preferred as long as QBTS can stabilize the current correction above the 61.8% retracement at 20.126 USD. A clean reversal impulse from the 22.38 to 20.13 USD zone would be the first sign that Wave 2 is maturing and that buyers are stepping back in.
The decisive confirmation, however, only comes above 31.237 USD. A daily close above that level would resolve the current pullback structure to the upside and activate the potential Wave 3 scenario. In that case, the first upside target would be the former high zone around 46.50 to 46.80 USD, followed by the Fibonacci extension cluster between 50.10 and 57.27 USD.
The strongest bullish signal would be a breakout above 31.237 USD with expanding daily candles and rising volume. That would indicate that the current decline was indeed a Wave 2 correction rather than the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.
Bearish / Alternative Scenario
The alternative scenario becomes more relevant if price loses the 20.126 USD zone with momentum. In that case, a deeper test of the 78.6% retracement at 16.913 USD would become likely. The market would need to react clearly from that area to keep the larger bullish structure credible.
A sustained break below 16.913 USD would significantly weaken the quality of the Wave 2 count. The formal Elliott Wave invalidation would still be below 12.885 USD, but from a practical trading perspective, such a deep retracement would already be a clear warning signal.
Below 12.885 USD, the preferred bullish count is invalidated. The move from 12.885 USD to 31.237 USD would then no longer qualify as a reliable Wave 1 foundation and would be better interpreted as a corrective recovery inside a larger sideways or bearish structure.
Trading Interpretation
From a trader's perspective, QBTS is not in a blind buy zone. It is in a decision zone. The technical setup is interesting, but not yet confirmed. Price is trading exactly where a Wave 2 can typically find buyers, while momentum after the pullback has not yet turned clearly bullish again.
Aggressive traders would watch the 22.38 to 20.13 USD area for reversal signals: bullish daily candles, higher lows on lower timeframes, improving volume, or a quick reclaim of 24.50 to 26.00 USD. More conservative traders would likely wait for a break above 31.237 USD, because that is where the Wave 3 thesis becomes structurally confirmed.
The risk-reward profile improves if buyers visibly defend the current support zone. It deteriorates quickly if price breaks below 20.126 USD and fails to reclaim it. The key requirement here is patience. QBTS has upside potential, but the chart still demands confirmation.
Conclusion
QBTS is trading at a technically important decision point. The preferred Elliott Wave count treats the rally from 12.885 USD to 31.237 USD as a new Wave 1 and the current pullback as Wave 2. As long as the 22.38 to 20.13 USD area is defended, a bullish continuation toward 31.237 USD and later 46.50 to 57.27 USD remains plausible.
The outlook weakens if price loses the deeper retracement zones. Below 16.913 USD, the risk of a more complex correction increases significantly. Below 12.885 USD, the preferred bullish count is invalidated.
In short: the chart is constructive, but not confirmed yet. The next strong signal will come either from a clear stabilization inside the current Wave 2 zone or from a decisive breakout above 31.237 USD.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.