My 2026 price target $4,400 - $4,500. SPX has reached a top of the bullish Chanel that dates back to 2008 financial crises. Underneath the market money has been rotating away from risky sectors so it’s reasonable to expect some sort of pullback.
1. Technology XLK and communication XLC have been underperforming for the last few months.
2. Gold and Silver outperformed SPX this year, that doesn’t happen often - indicates strong money rotation into safe assets.
3. Seasonal bullish part of the year is coming to the end in Jan.
4. Bitcoin has already declined a significant amount.
Essentially smart money is not betting on riskiest assets in the near future.
While we could see SPX new ATH in the next few weeks, I am not optimistic about first 2 quarters of 2026.
$4,400-4,500 is bottom of the 17 year old channel, seems like a must hold support in a case of a bear market. In the case of such decline it’s very possible that price recovers back to or even above $7,000 by end of 2026.
1. Technology XLK and communication XLC have been underperforming for the last few months.
2. Gold and Silver outperformed SPX this year, that doesn’t happen often - indicates strong money rotation into safe assets.
3. Seasonal bullish part of the year is coming to the end in Jan.
4. Bitcoin has already declined a significant amount.
Essentially smart money is not betting on riskiest assets in the near future.
While we could see SPX new ATH in the next few weeks, I am not optimistic about first 2 quarters of 2026.
$4,400-4,500 is bottom of the 17 year old channel, seems like a must hold support in a case of a bear market. In the case of such decline it’s very possible that price recovers back to or even above $7,000 by end of 2026.
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