SPY Daily — May 15, 2026 — Distribution Watch After Parabolic RunSetup: Elliott 5-wave completion at $749.50 within ascending trend channel. First material distribution candle today (-1.00%, red after parabolic 6-week +13.6% rally from $660).
Daily structure:
▪ BUY signal April 8 at $685
▪ Wave 1: $685 → $710
▪ Wave 2: $700 retest
▪ Wave 3: $700 → $725
▪ Wave 4: $725 → $722 (May 7-8)
▪ Wave 5: $722 → $749.50 (May 14)
▪ Today: First red daily candle after Wave 5 = distribution confirming
Future Trend Channel context:
▪ Upper channel: ~$770 (extended target if continuation)
▪ Mid channel: $748-750 (just rejected)
▪ Lower channel: $724.87 (immediate support test)
▪ Mean reversion: ~$700 (50-day zone)
Levels:
▪ Bear trigger: Daily close < $738 confirms break
▪ T1: $724.87 (lower channel + Wave 4 origin)
▪ T2: $715 (Wave 2 origin retest)
▪ Stretch: $700-705 (50-day + measured move)
▪ Invalidation: Daily close > $750 = thesis dead, new highs in scope
Multi-timeframe confluence:
▪ Daily EW 5-wave completion
▪ 15m CHoCH at $745.63 yesterday
▪ Today's IWM flow: $8M+ $268P 34DTE bought = small-cap bear stack
▪ Bond rout / 10yr 4.56% pressuring multiples
▪ Friday OpEx + summit-without-breakthrough = macro headwinds
Honest probability:
🟢 Quick recovery to new highs: 25%
🟡 Range $725-748 chop 5-10 sessions: 35%
🔴 T1 hit at $724.87: 30%
🔴 Deeper $710-715: 10%
R:R from $740: T1 (-2.1%) vs $750 stop (+1.4%) = 1.5x
T2 (-3.5%) vs stop = 2.5x — better for swing structure
Watch list, not yet trade. Trigger fires at daily close < $738.
This is the first credible top-call setup since the April low. Doesn't mean it plays out. Means the structure deserves attention.
Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.
Not investment advice.
WaverVanir ⚖ Process over prediction.
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🌐 wavervanir.com
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✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
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🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
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WaverVanir ⚖ Process over prediction.
🌐 wavervanir.com
📊 stocktwits.com/Pravo_Koirala
✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
🐙 github.com/pravo123
🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
🌐 wavervanir.com
📊 stocktwits.com/Pravo_Koirala
✈ t.me/wavervanir
💼 linkedin.com/in/prabhawa
🐙 github.com/pravo123
🎬 youtu.be/-Sedov3GUrU?si=-AYAsAGhWLbXvcK_
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.