- 
UPS stock has been a dog in the last 3 years.
- However, worst appears to be behind us.
- Fundamentally,
| Year | Bear EPS | Base EPS | Bull EPS |
| -------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------------|
| 2025. | ~$6.90 (~3%) | ~$7.20 (+7% ) | $7.70 (~15% ) |
| 2026 | ~$7.10 (+3%) | ~$7.70 (+7%) | ~$8.85 (+15%) |
| 2027. | ~$7.30 (+3%) | ~$8.25 (+7%) | ~10.18 (+15%) |
-UPS isn't a growth story but a value play. Currently, it is trading at a valuation of bear case and forward p/e of 10.
- However, I am betting on stabilization and upward revision of multiple. In that case, a fair forward p/e would be 12-15x
| Year | Bear Case Price | Base Case Price | Bull Case Price |
| -------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | -------------------- |
| 2025 | $6.90× 10-12 → $69-83| $7.20× 15-18 → $108-130| $7.70× 20-25 → $154-193|
| 2026 | $7.10× 10-12 → $71-85| $7.70× 15-18 → $116-139 | $8.85× 20-25 → $177-221 |
| 2027 | $7.30× 10-12 → $73-88 | $8.25× 15-18 → $124-149 | $10.18×20-25 → $204-255 |
UPS stock has been a dog in the last 3 years. - However, worst appears to be behind us.
- Fundamentally,
| Year | Bear EPS | Base EPS | Bull EPS |
| -------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------------|
| 2025. | ~$6.90 (~3%) | ~$7.20 (+7% ) | $7.70 (~15% ) |
| 2026 | ~$7.10 (+3%) | ~$7.70 (+7%) | ~$8.85 (+15%) |
| 2027. | ~$7.30 (+3%) | ~$8.25 (+7%) | ~10.18 (+15%) |
-
UPS isn't a growth story but a value play. Currently, it is trading at a valuation of bear case and forward p/e of 10. - However, I am betting on stabilization and upward revision of multiple. In that case, a fair forward p/e would be 12-15x
| Year | Bear Case Price | Base Case Price | Bull Case Price |
| -------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | -------------------- |
| 2025 | $6.90× 10-12 → $69-83| $7.20× 15-18 → $108-130| $7.70× 20-25 → $154-193|
| 2026 | $7.10× 10-12 → $71-85| $7.70× 15-18 → $116-139 | $8.85× 20-25 → $177-221 |
| 2027 | $7.30× 10-12 → $73-88 | $8.25× 15-18 → $124-149 | $10.18×20-25 → $204-255 |
Catatan
So, base case for UPS in 2026 for me is around $116 with forward p/e of 15 that's roughly ~38% upside Catatan
In the worst case, it's a dead money for the year and I collect around 7.5-8% yield
Catatan
- UPS is ready to deliver gains to shareholders during the festive season :)- Seasonality is in favour, stock price is very pessimistic
- Insiders are loading shares
Catatan
- UPS is getting ready for the run, better to size up before you catch the parcel at > 100Catatan
- So many investors are still fixated on UPS breaking up the deal from 
AMZN is a bad thing. Please hold my beer, the ticket size for AMZN is on an average is in double digit. - Yes you lose on volume but it's not profitable for them.
UPS can focus on higher margin shipments which usually comes from consumers directly selling instead of big company like AMZN-
SHOP customers when they ship their products via UPS is usually more profitable. -
AMZN fullfillment might gain market share by the virtue of more orders they process but it would drag down their margins because even AMZN at that massive scale have thin margins from deliveries. Most of the AMZN margins comes from AWS and ADsCatatan
- UPS should trade above $120 before end of 2026 just via some stabilization and mean reversion in the multipleCatatan
UPS is above $108 on Jan 11, 2026
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.