USDCAD can crash if it closes below its 1M MA50.

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The USDCAD pair hit last month its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the September 2022 bullish break-out. That trend-line has technically been the pivot that separated the Bull from the Bear Cycles in the past years.

The pair has been on a macro consolidation within a wide range for almost 11 years (since May 2015). Every touch on its Resistance Zone has been a massive long-term sell opportunity and equally a buy opportunity on its Support Zone. Last time the market hit the Resistance Zone was exactly 1 year ago (February 2025) and we gave a huge Sell Signal.

So if the price closes a 1M candle below the 1M MA50, we will take it as a bearish continuation signal, targeting the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 1.26000. This will still be slightly above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since June 2015 and is the next macro Support level of interest.

Note that every time the 1W RSI broke below its 30.00 oversold barrier, it coincided with the price hitting its long-term Support Zone, thus being a massive buy opportunity.

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