Diupdate

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

Catatan

But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

Catatan

possible Long-term wave count

Catatan

Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

Catatan

short-term count

Catatan

any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

Catatan

break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

Catatan

there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

Catatan

The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

Catatan

break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

Catatan

The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

Catatan

also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

Catatan

Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

Catatan

is wave 3 ready to explode?

Catatan

Short-term count

Catatan

daily chart

Catatan

we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

Catatan

possible short-term counts:
either

Catatan

alternative count

Catatan

wave {iv} under way?

Catatan

wave (iv) could be a triangle

Catatan

possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

Catatan

or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

Catatan

immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

Catatan

wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

Catatan

triangle

or flat?

Catatan

triangle

or flat

Catatan

{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

Catatan

or an impulse wave {c}

Catatan

possible short-term count

Catatan

possible short-term count

Catatan

either way

Catatan

let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

Catatan

a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

Catatan

break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

Catatan

possible short-term count

Catatan

key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

Catatan

possible short-term counts

Catatan

note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

Catatan

triple zigzag?

Catatan

Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

Catatan

alternative count

Catatan

possible short-term count

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possible short-term count

Catatan

either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

Catatan

Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

Catatan

the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

Catatan

possible short term counts

Catatan

bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

Catatan

no change

Catatan

Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

Catatan

OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

Catatan

Flat

or Combination

Catatan

there are some bullish possibilities

Catatan

medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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The start of a long-term bear?

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wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space