XAUUSD is trading around 4,297 after extending the bearish H4 sequence into the lower part of the current structure. Price remains below the descending resistance trendline, so the broader bias is still defensive, but the market is approaching an area where a corrective recovery may develop.
The macro environment remains difficult for gold. The Fed begins its September meeting today, with a 25 bp hike widely expected after hotter inflation data. Gold has fallen to a fresh one-month low, while Brent has surged above $108 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has traded around 5%, reinforcing inflation and higher-rate pressure on non-yielding gold.
Technical View
The H4 structure remains bearish after consecutive BOS signals and continued rejection beneath the descending resistance trendline.
Price is now trading close to the lower structural area around 4,225–4,260. Although the chart labels this lower box differently, technically it is the main reaction/support area for the projected recovery path.
A liquidity sweep into this region followed by bullish rejection, H4 reclaim or MSS confirmation could trigger a corrective rebound.
The first meaningful upside objective is the 4,405–4,440 Recovery Resistance zone.
If buyers regain acceptance above this structure, the next recovery target sits at 4,525–4,560 OB / Key Resistance.
The higher 4,640–4,665 area remains a larger HTF objective, but it should not be assumed reachable while the broader descending structure remains intact.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,297
Lower Structural Support: 4,225–4,260
Recovery Resistance: 4,405–4,440
OB / Key Resistance: 4,525–4,560
Upper HTF Zone: 4,640–4,665
Major Swing High: 4,699.106
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,225–4,260
Condition: wait for an H4 liquidity sweep followed by bullish rejection, reclaim, MSS or clear higher-low confirmation.
TP1: 4,405–4,440
TP2: 4,525–4,560
Invalidation: sustained H4 acceptance below 4,225 would weaken the recovery setup.
Buy/Sell View
This is a counter-trend recovery plan, not confirmation that the H4 downtrend has ended.
With the Fed decision approaching and rate-hike expectations extremely elevated, buying blindly around current price offers poor confirmation. The cleaner setup is to let price test lower structural support and show that sellers are losing control first.
If 4,225–4,260 fails, the bullish recovery thesis should be reassessed rather than forcing a long position.
Final View
Gold remains under strong macro and technical pressure ahead of the Fed, but H4 is approaching an important lower reaction area after an extended decline.
The main scenario is a liquidity sweep into 4,225–4,260 followed by confirmed recovery, targeting 4,405–4,440 first and 4,525–4,560 if momentum strengthens.
The Fed decision and guidance will likely determine whether this lower H4 structure can produce a genuine recovery or simply another temporary bounce.
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Recovery Following Plan
Gold moved in line with the recovery scenario, reacting strongly from the lower H4 support area around 4,240–4,260 and rebounding roughly 54 points toward 4,310.
The reaction confirms that buyers are defending the lower structural zone, but price is still trading below the descending resistance trendline, so the broader recovery is not fully confirmed yet.
If bullish momentum continues, the next important objective remains the 4,405–4,440 Recovery Resistance zone.
For now, avoid chasing the rebound and wait for the next clean retest or bullish confirmation.
Trading Gold the structured way — liquidity, order blocks, Ichimoku confluence
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+uQLpyLGJXqNhOGJl
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+uQLpyLGJXqNhOGJl
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Trading Gold the structured way — liquidity, order blocks, Ichimoku confluence
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+uQLpyLGJXqNhOGJl
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
New idea every session. Follow + tap into the community → t.me/+uQLpyLGJXqNhOGJl
Analysis, not advice. Trade your own plan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.