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XAU/USD 15M: Bearish Rejection Expected at Key Resistance Zone

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XAU/USD (Gold) – 15-Minute Technical Analysis

Bias: Bearish Rejection from Resistance

The chart shows gold recovering within a short-term ascending channel, but price has reached a significant resistance/supply zone around 4,089–4,090. This area previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance, increasing the probability of a bearish reaction.

Key Observations
Price rallied from the channel low and retested the marked resistance zone.
The resistance area aligns with previous market structure, creating a strong supply region.
The projected setup anticipates a rejection from 4,090.065.
The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a relatively tight stop above resistance and a larger downside target.
Trade Setup (Educational)
Entry Zone: 4,089–4,090
Stop Loss: 4,108.792
Target: 4,030.044
Bearish Confirmation Signals

Before considering a short position, traders may look for:

Rejection candles (bearish engulfing, pin bar) within the resistance zone.
Breakdown below the ascending channel support.
Lower highs forming on the 15-minute timeframe.
Invalidation

A sustained move and close above 4,090, especially above 4,108.792, would invalidate the bearish scenario and suggest buyers have regained control.

Conclusion

Gold is testing a critical resistance zone after a corrective rally. Unless buyers can decisively break above 4,090, the probability favors a bearish rejection toward the 4,030 target area. The ascending channel appears corrective rather than impulsive, supporting the downside outlook.
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