1️⃣ Market Overview
Gold begins the London session trading around $4,178–$4,183, recovering after an early sweep toward $4,159 and bouncing back into the intraday structure.
Despite this recovery, price remains below the broken ascending trendline, which now acts as resistance, and under the broader descending trendline from $4,245.
The current movement suggests a corrective pullback, with sellers defending the $4,183–$4,192 zone, as gold forms lower highs intraday. London volatility will determine whether the market rejects this retest (bearish continuation) or breaks above it (bullish reversal attempt).
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Gold maintains a mid-recovery structure, holding above the 100EMA and trying to build above the 10EMA.
• RSI ~61 shows mild bullish momentum but not strong enough to break the long-term descending trendline.
• Major support remains at $4,028–$4,090, with resistance at the compression ceiling near $4,192–$4,209.
🔹 1H Chart
• Structure remains bearish-to-neutral, following a clean BOS down from $4,209 into $4,159.
• Current bounce is just a retest of the broken trendline.
• RSI around 46 and MACD red but flattening → early signs of indecision, not reversal.
• Critical resistance sits at $4,183–$4,192, aligned with retest structure + EMA cluster.
🔹 15M–5M
• Intraday shows a BOS to the downside, then a corrective pullback.
• Price is reacting inside a tight compression wedge between trendline resistance and EMAs.
• Momentum on lower timeframes suggests sellers are waiting for rejection confirmation at $4,183–$4,192.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,245 → 4,159
• 38.2% = 4,192
• 50.0% = 4,202
• 61.8% = 4,212
🎯 Golden Zone: 4,192 – 4,212
This is the primary high-probability sell interest area.
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Main Bias)
Sell Zone: 4,183 – 4,192
(Trendline retest + EMA cluster + FVG alignment)
Targets:
→ 4,172
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
Stop Loss: Above 4,200
Confirmation Needed:
• Bearish engulfing
• BOS below 4,176
• RSI divergence on 5M–15M
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT SELL SETUP
Trigger: Break & close below 4,172
Retest: 4,174–4,176
Targets:
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
→ 4,130
Stop Loss: Above 4,185
⸻
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend)
Buy Zone: 4,159 – 4,165
(Morning sweep demand + liquidity grab)
Targets:
→ 4,176
→ 4,183
→ 4,190
Stop Loss: Below 4,154
Confirmation:
• Bullish CHoCH
• Strong wick rejection
• MACD flip
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT BUY SETUP
Trigger: Break & close above 4,200
Retest: 4,192–4,195
Targets:
→ 4,209
→ 4,225
→ 4,245
Stop Loss: Below 4,188
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• London session opens with higher volatility following overnight sweeps.
• US PPI and consumer sentiment later today may set the direction for the next leg.
• DXY stabilizing near 105.8, keeping pressure on gold until broken.
• Markets remain sensitive to Fed tone and bond yield fluctuation.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zones:
• 4,183
• 4,192
• 4,200
• 4,209
Support Zones:
• 4,172
• 4,165
• 4,159
• 4,145
Golden Zone:
➡️ 4,192 – 4,212
Break Levels:
• Sell Break Trigger: < 4,172
• Buy Break Trigger: > 4,200
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold is forming a corrective pullback into a major confluence zone.
As long as gold remains below 4,190, the market favors bearish continuation toward 4,160 → 4,145.
A breakout above 4,200 would invalidate the bearish structure and drive the market toward the 4,225–4,245 imbalance.
This is a classic London-session compression → expansion setup.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish below 4,190, targeting 4,160 – 4,145.
📈 Alternative Bias: Bullish only above 4,200, targeting 4,225 – 4,245.
⸻
Gold begins the London session trading around $4,178–$4,183, recovering after an early sweep toward $4,159 and bouncing back into the intraday structure.
Despite this recovery, price remains below the broken ascending trendline, which now acts as resistance, and under the broader descending trendline from $4,245.
The current movement suggests a corrective pullback, with sellers defending the $4,183–$4,192 zone, as gold forms lower highs intraday. London volatility will determine whether the market rejects this retest (bearish continuation) or breaks above it (bullish reversal attempt).
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Gold maintains a mid-recovery structure, holding above the 100EMA and trying to build above the 10EMA.
• RSI ~61 shows mild bullish momentum but not strong enough to break the long-term descending trendline.
• Major support remains at $4,028–$4,090, with resistance at the compression ceiling near $4,192–$4,209.
🔹 1H Chart
• Structure remains bearish-to-neutral, following a clean BOS down from $4,209 into $4,159.
• Current bounce is just a retest of the broken trendline.
• RSI around 46 and MACD red but flattening → early signs of indecision, not reversal.
• Critical resistance sits at $4,183–$4,192, aligned with retest structure + EMA cluster.
🔹 15M–5M
• Intraday shows a BOS to the downside, then a corrective pullback.
• Price is reacting inside a tight compression wedge between trendline resistance and EMAs.
• Momentum on lower timeframes suggests sellers are waiting for rejection confirmation at $4,183–$4,192.
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis
Last swing: 4,245 → 4,159
• 38.2% = 4,192
• 50.0% = 4,202
• 61.8% = 4,212
🎯 Golden Zone: 4,192 – 4,212
This is the primary high-probability sell interest area.
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Main Bias)
Sell Zone: 4,183 – 4,192
(Trendline retest + EMA cluster + FVG alignment)
Targets:
→ 4,172
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
Stop Loss: Above 4,200
Confirmation Needed:
• Bearish engulfing
• BOS below 4,176
• RSI divergence on 5M–15M
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT SELL SETUP
Trigger: Break & close below 4,172
Retest: 4,174–4,176
Targets:
→ 4,160
→ 4,145
→ 4,130
Stop Loss: Above 4,185
⸻
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Countertrend)
Buy Zone: 4,159 – 4,165
(Morning sweep demand + liquidity grab)
Targets:
→ 4,176
→ 4,183
→ 4,190
Stop Loss: Below 4,154
Confirmation:
• Bullish CHoCH
• Strong wick rejection
• MACD flip
⸻
💥 BREAKOUT BUY SETUP
Trigger: Break & close above 4,200
Retest: 4,192–4,195
Targets:
→ 4,209
→ 4,225
→ 4,245
Stop Loss: Below 4,188
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• London session opens with higher volatility following overnight sweeps.
• US PPI and consumer sentiment later today may set the direction for the next leg.
• DXY stabilizing near 105.8, keeping pressure on gold until broken.
• Markets remain sensitive to Fed tone and bond yield fluctuation.
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zones:
• 4,183
• 4,192
• 4,200
• 4,209
Support Zones:
• 4,172
• 4,165
• 4,159
• 4,145
Golden Zone:
➡️ 4,192 – 4,212
Break Levels:
• Sell Break Trigger: < 4,172
• Buy Break Trigger: > 4,200
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold is forming a corrective pullback into a major confluence zone.
As long as gold remains below 4,190, the market favors bearish continuation toward 4,160 → 4,145.
A breakout above 4,200 would invalidate the bearish structure and drive the market toward the 4,225–4,245 imbalance.
This is a classic London-session compression → expansion setup.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
📉 Primary Bias: Bearish below 4,190, targeting 4,160 – 4,145.
📈 Alternative Bias: Bullish only above 4,200, targeting 4,225 – 4,245.
⸻
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.