XAUUSD: Is $3,717 the Turning Point?📊 XAUUSD (Gold) – Macro Outlook & Technical Scenarios
Gold remains under pressure as markets continue to price in persistent inflation, elevated energy costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite growing expectations that major central banks may maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer, a significant portion of these expectations has already been priced into the market.
According to recent Federal Reserve projections and Dot Plot data, a large majority of policymakers continue to support maintaining a restrictive stance and keeping interest rates elevated if inflation remains above target.
From both a macroeconomic and market structure perspective, two potential scenarios emerge for Gold (XAUUSD).
🟢 Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)
The market may first seek liquidity below the current structure and complete a corrective phase around the $3,717 area.
This zone represents the most significant support level within the current market structure and could act as the completion point of the ongoing correction.
If buyers successfully defend this area, Gold may begin a new bullish expansion targeting substantially higher prices during the following months.
Key Support:
$3,717
🔴 Alternative Scenario
Should inflationary pressures remain elevated and central banks adopt even more aggressive tightening measures than currently anticipated, Gold could experience a deeper correction.
In this scenario, price may extend lower toward the $3,405 region before establishing a long-term bottom.
A recovery from this area could potentially mark the beginning of the next major bullish cycle.
Secondary Support:
$3,405
Market Bias
At present, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity positioning, and overall market structure continue to favor the primary bullish scenario.
Therefore, the green path illustrated on the chart remains the preferred outlook unless significant fundamental developments alter current expectations.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects personal market observations and is intended for educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Forex #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Liquidity #MarketStructure 
Long
XAUUSD — Bearish Structure Holds, Sell Bias Below 4018
Gold is trading around $3,982 after forming a light accumulation phase near the lower range. Price has slowed down after the recent sell-off, but the main structure is still bearish as long as gold remains below the descending trendline and below the $4,018 invalidation area.
From an SMC perspective, gold has already created multiple MSS confirmations to the downside. The current sideways movement looks more like liquidity accumulation than a clear bullish reversal. This means sellers may still defend the $4,000–$4,018 area if price retests it and fails to break structure.
The key level for today is $4,018. As long as price stays below this level, the sell bias remains valid. A clean break above $4,018 and especially above the descending trendline would be the first signal that gold may shift into a short-term bullish reversal structure.
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold retests the liquidity accumulation zone around $4,000–$4,018 and shows bearish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,000–$4,018
SL: above $4,035
TP1: $3,950
TP2: $3,925
TP3: $3,886
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks below $3,950 and retests this area as resistance, bearish continuation remains valid.
Entry: below $3,950 after retest
SL: above $3,985
TP1: $3,925
TP2: $3,900
TP3: $3,886
Buy setup
Condition:
Buying is not the priority. A buy setup is only valid if gold breaks above $4,018, closes above the descending trendline, and confirms bullish MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: above $4,018 after breakout retest
SL: below $3,980
TP1: $4,050
TP2: $4,085
TP3: $4,120
Key levels
Current price area: $3,982
Liquidity accumulation zone: $3,960–$4,018
Main sell reaction area: $4,000–$4,018
Sell-side liquidity H4: $3,925–$3,935
Key support zone: $3,886
Bearish continuation confirmation: clean break below $3,950
Bullish reversal confirmation: clean break above $4,018 and above the trendline
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,018
My current view is that gold is still in a bearish structure while price trades below $4,018. The current accumulation may create short-term noise, but unless price breaks the trendline and confirms a bullish shift, the priority remains selling from resistance toward the lower liquidity zones.
No confirmation, no trade.
Short 
MASON XAUUSD – Downtrend Still Dominates, Rebound Is Secondary
XAUUSD is trading around 4,062 after another strong bearish move. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and below the broken trendline, so the main structure is still bearish.
The primary view is sell continuation, while the secondary scenario is a short technical rebound before the next confirmation.
Technical View
Gold is still moving under clear bearish pressure after breaking the previous trendline support. The latest reaction around 4,054 shows that price is testing a strong liquidity area, but buyers have not confirmed a real reversal yet.
Price Action is still forming lower highs and lower lows. This means any recovery should be treated as a pullback unless gold can break back above the confirmation level at 4,145.
Ichimoku also supports the bearish structure. Price is below the cloud, and the cloud above price is acting as resistance. As long as gold stays below the cloud, sellers still have better control.
The 4,106–4,111 area is the first sell zone. If price rebounds into this zone and rejects, the downside move may continue toward 4,054 and 4,024.
The second sell area is around 4,175–4,195. This zone is stronger but needs clear bearish rejection before any sell setup.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,062
Strong liquidity: 4,054
Medium-term downtrend confirmation: 4,024
Sell zone 1: 4,106–4,111
Buy recovery confirmation: 4,145
Sell zone 2: 4,175–4,195
Resistance: 4,221
Psychological target: 3,960–3,975
Invalidation: above 4,221
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,106–4,111
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, lower high, or failed recovery above the broken trendline.
SL: above 4,145
TP1: 4,054
TP2: 4,024
TP3: 3,960–3,975
Second Sell Setup
Sell Zone: 4,175–4,195
Condition: only consider this zone if gold rebounds deeper and rejects below the Ichimoku cloud.
SL: above 4,221
TP1: 4,106
TP2: 4,054
TP3: 4,024
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,145, a short recovery wave may appear toward 4,175–4,195. However, this is still only a rebound unless price breaks above 4,221.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price stays below the Ichimoku cloud. A buy setup only becomes safer if gold holds above 4,145 and confirms strength back into the cloud.
Final View
Overall, gold is still in a bearish structure. The cleaner plan is to wait for a rebound into resistance, then look for sell confirmation. If 4,054 and 4,024 fail, the psychological target around 3,960–3,975 may become the next focus.
Will gold rebound into the sell zone first, or continue straight toward the psychological target?
Short 
Long
Long
Long
Long
PLTR: Army, farmers and 8 billion cash with zero debtPalantir started as a tool for intelligence agencies, but today its AIP platform manages Pentagon satellites, USDA farm data, Airbus aviation lines and Lowe's supply chains. The company trades on Nasdaq, and everyone who understands that Palantir has become operational infrastructure for both government and industry is watching.
Fundamentals
The Q1 2026 report was released on May 4. Revenue grew 85 percent to 1.633 billion dollars, beating the 1.54 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.33 dollars versus a 0.28 consensus. GAAP net income reached 871 million dollars, quadrupling year over year. US revenue jumped 104 percent to 1.282 billion dollars, with the government segment contributing 687 million and commercial up 133 percent to 595 million. The balance sheet holds 8 billion dollars in cash with zero debt. The Rule of 40 reached 145 percent, a level seen only at NVIDIA among tech companies of this scale.
In April, the US Department of Agriculture signed a 300 million dollar contract for the One Farmer, One File initiative. Previously, this platform delivered 11 billion dollars to farmers in five days. Airbus extended its multi year Skywise agreement. Palantir and NVIDIA announced a technology partnership, integrating Nemotron models into the AI Forward Deployed Engineer platform for defense, healthcare and industry. Lowe's is already using this solution for its digital supply chain twin.
The main legal risk: a Colorado federal court ruled in Palantir's favor in the CalPERS lawsuit, but plaintiffs have filed an appeal. The case continues.
Technicals
On the daily chart, price broke above the descending trendline that had capped quotes for several months and is now retesting the breakout zone. The buy zone is in the 135 to 140 dollar range. Yesterday's close, June 3, was 142.20 dollars. Volume over the last week has exceeded averages, indicating institutional presence. ADX, DI and MACD point to a buy and bullish dominance. Price is trading above most moving averages.
The first target from the chart is 185 dollars.
The market values Palantir as an operator of critical infrastructure. The appeal and a high multiple temper immediate euphoria, but the technical breakout and volumes create a setup for upside. 
Long
Support and Resistance: Why Markets React at Certain LevelsIf you ask experienced traders what they look at first on a chart, many will give the same answer:
Support and Resistance.
These are not magical lines that predict the future. Instead, they represent areas where buyers and sellers have previously shown strong interest. They are levels where emotions, decisions, and market psychology become visible on the chart.
Have you ever noticed how price often stops falling at a certain area and suddenly bounces back? Or how an uptrend pauses near a previous high and struggles to move further?
That is support and resistance in action.
Horizontal Support and Resistance
The easiest way to identify these levels is by looking at previous highs and lows.
A support level is an area where buyers step in and prevent prices from falling further.
A resistance level is an area where sellers become active and prevent prices from moving higher.
These zones are important because traders remember them. Institutions remember them. The market remembers them.
And when price returns to these areas, reactions often occur again.
Dynamic Support and Resistance
Support and resistance are not always horizontal.
Moving averages, trendlines, and channels can also act as dynamic support and resistance.
During strong uptrends, price may repeatedly bounce from a rising trendline.
During downtrends, a moving average can act as resistance and push price lower.
These levels move with the market and help traders understand the strength of a trend.
Breakout or Fakeout?
One of the most exciting moments in trading is a breakout.
Price finally breaks above resistance or below support.
But not every breakout is real.
Sometimes price moves beyond a level only to reverse quickly and trap traders who entered too early.
This is known as a fakeout.
The difference between a breakout and a fakeout often comes down to patience.
Waiting for confirmation can save traders from many unnecessary losses.
Retest Entries: Let the Market Confirm First
Professional traders rarely chase price.
Instead, they often wait for a breakout and then look for a retest.
For example:
Price breaks resistance.
Later, it comes back to test the same level.
If buyers defend that area and price starts rising again, the old resistance may become new support.
This approach allows traders to enter with more confidence and better risk management.
Stop Loss Placement Matters
Even the best support or resistance level can fail.
That is why stop losses are essential.
A stop loss should not be placed randomly.
It should be placed at a level where your trading idea becomes invalid.
Because trading is not about being right every time.
It is about protecting capital while allowing winning trades to grow.
Final words:
Support and resistance are among the simplest concepts in trading, yet they remain some of the most powerful.
They reveal where buyers and sellers are active.
They help traders identify opportunities.
And most importantly, they teach an important lesson:
The market does not react because of lines on a chart.
It reacts because of human behavior.
Education 
EUR/GBP Breakdown Confirms Bearish Triangle, Wave 3 UnderwayIn our May 20 analysis, we highlighted that EUR/GBP had likely completed a complex WXY structure within wave D of a larger A-B-C-D-E triangle and warned that the pair could be entering the final wave E decline. We also noted that wave E was expected to unfold in three legs, with a corrective wave (B) potentially taking the shape of a bearish triangle before another move lower.
Today, a closer look at the 4-hour chart shows that this scenario is playing out as expected. EUR/GBP is finally breaking below the lower boundary of the bearish triangle pattern that developed within wave (B), while also slipping beneath the February and March lows. This breakdown provides an important bearish confirmation and suggests that sellers are regaining control of the broader trend.
Following the completion of the triangle, the market formed a bearish impulsive setup with visible subwaves 1 and 2. As such, EUR/GBP now appears to be entering wave 3 of a larger five-wave bearish impulse. Since third waves are typically the strongest and steepest portion of an impulse sequence, the current decline has the potential to accelerate and extend over the coming sessions and weeks.
While the broader outlook remains bearish, traders should remain aware of short-term intraday pullbacks, which are common during impulsive declines and can provide temporary relief rallies before the downtrend resumes. As long as the recent breakdown remains intact, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, supporting the view that wave (C) of the larger wave E decline is now underway. Gold (XAUUSD) | 4H Technical Chart Analysis, seems bearishGold has been trading inside a well defined bearish structure for several months, respecting a descending resistance trendline while continuously making lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, price has reached an important reaction zone after creating a fresh multi-month low. This area is interesting because it sits near a historical liquidity pocket where market participants may begin reassessing value.
Price remains below the long-term descending resistance trendline.
The current zone around recent lows is acting as a key reaction area.
Historical liquidity often accumulates near major support regions, making this an important area to monitor.
If buyers step in, a short term recovery toward higher resistance levels could develop.
If weakness continues, the next liquidity zones highlighted on the chart may become relevant.
For now, market structure remains bearish, but reaction at current levels may provide clues about the next phase of price action.
Why this chart matters:
Markets rarely move in straight lines forever. After extended trends, traders often watch for signs of exhaustion, liquidity sweeps, and shifts in momentum. The current area could become an important reference point for future price action.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions.
— @TraderRahulPal
SCA Registered Financial Influencer (Dubai, UAE) Short 
Short 
Long
GBPUSD — Key Support in Focus — Buy Zone or Bearish Extension?From a broader perspective, GBPUSD has been trading inside a well-defined range structure since the beginning of May 2025, consistently respecting the boundaries between the blue support zone and the red resistance area.
At the moment, price is approaching the lower boundary of the range, returning to an area that previously attracted buying pressure and generated multiple market reactions.
This creates an interesting technical location to monitor.
From a trading perspective, this region may offer an opportunity to look for buy setups, provided price delivers a confirmed rejection from the support zone.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see another rotation inside the range structure, with potential movement back toward the red resistance zone.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the range with confirmation, this could signal that sellers are taking control and increase the probability of a broader downside expansion.
For now, the key question is:
Can buyers defend the lower boundary once again, or is the market preparing for a structural shift?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#GBPUSD #GBP #USD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RangeTrading #Trading #RiskManagement SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly...SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly Didn't Get
the Memo.
Yesterday's post called the resolution of the five-session
cross-timeframe standoff, the Hourly won and the Daily stopped
arguing. One session later the Daily is arguing again. The
thesis flipped from MEDIUM SHORT back to MEDIUM LONG overnight,
the Direction reads Q1 LONG, the Light is GREEN, and the ACE
CQI jumped to 89.9, the highest Daily conviction read on SPY
this cycle. Meanwhile the Hourly is still RED, Q2 neutral,
with the 56-bar bear print at CQI 68.16 holding steady and
EXT MODE still active on the SYNTH Gate. Price dropped another
$10.81 yesterday and is sitting at 736.88 this morning, right
on top of the 736.50-736.87 key support. The Daily looked at
that and decided it was bullish. The Hourly looked at it and
didn't change its mind.
Resistance: 740.44 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 742.71-743.45 - the cluster above
Current price: 736.88
Support: 736.50-736.87 - the level price is sitting on now
Key support: 732.45 - next shelf below
Thesis line: 721.23 - the broader floor
Two paths from here:
The Daily is right: the CQI 89.9 read and the PARTIAL signal
mark this as a capitulation low, Vol Elev enters on a bounce,
price reclaims 740.44 and pushes toward 742. The Hourly's bear
print finally gets overridden.
The Hourly is right: the EXT MODE flag and the undecayed bear
print hold, 736.50 fails, price drops to 732.45. The Daily's
LONG flip was premature, the same way its SHORT flip yesterday
turned out to be a single-session read rather than a trend
change.
The Daily has now flipped thesis direction twice in two sessions.
MEDIUM SHORT yesterday, MEDIUM LONG today. That kind of
oscillation usually means the Daily is reacting to price rather
than leading it. The Hourly's bear print has been steady for
56 bars through all of it. Stability of conviction versus
reactivity of conviction is the real comparison this morning.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. NVDA Is Sitting on Its Thesis Line for the First Time This CycleNVDA Is Sitting on Its Thesis Line for the First Time This Cycle.
The 198.88-199.89 zone that has anchored the bottom of every
cheat sheet since this posting series began is now directly
beneath price. The Daily candle yesterday dropped to 200.00
exactly, and the 1H is sitting at 201.52 this morning with
the Last Ann labels from both timeframes visible on screen
just below current price. Both timeframes agree on direction
for the second session running - the Hourly's 21-bar bear
print at CQI 82.93 barely decayed from yesterday's 83.2,
and the Daily's 60-bar bear print at CQI 62.2 is still
holding. PANIC is active on the Daily, DISBELIEF on the
Hourly, and the Daily's Entry Signal reads FORMING.
Resistance: 202.20-203.28 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 204.65-205.75 - last week's floor
Current price: 201.52
Support: 199.89-200.08 - the thesis line, first time in play
Key support: 198.41-198.47 - deeper structural shelf
Below that: 197.13-191.23 - open space into the April low
Two paths from here:
The thesis line holds: price bounces off 199.89-200, Vol Elev
climbs from its current 2nd percentile, a relief move pushes
back toward 204. The bear prints age without follow-through
the way the prior 74.93 CQI print did two weeks ago.
The thesis line breaks: price loses 199.89 with participation.
That opens 198.41-197.13, and below that there is relatively
thin structure down to 191.23, the April low. The Hourly's
near-CQI-83 bear print and the Daily's PANIC state would both
be confirmed in a way they haven't been yet this cycle.
The Hourly's CQI of 82.93 is the second-highest conviction
read the system has produced on any published instrument in
this entire posting history. The only higher one was QH's
92.41, on an instrument with broken price history. This is
the real thing, on a validated instrument, at the thesis line.
Today matters.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
BTC's Bear Print Just Crossed 189 Bars.BTC's Bear Print Just Crossed 189 Bars. The Dashboard Has Given
Up Trying to Fight It.
Yesterday morning the stack loaded hard against the standing
bear announcement - MEDIUM LONG thesis, PARTIAL signal, IMP at
2/5, Vol Elev at 71st. That challenge failed. The PARTIAL signal
decayed back to WAIT, Vol Elev collapsed from 71st to 8th, IMP
dropped from 2/5 back to 0/5. The bear print at CQI 65.59 is
now 189 bars old and has survived every challenge this market has
produced for over two weeks. At this point the ecosystem has
thrown a PARTIAL signal, a DISBELIEF state, multiple EXT MODE
cycles, and a complete 1H thesis flip at it, and the conviction
read hasn't moved a single point. The Daily's FP Data came back
online after going dark yesterday, but the direction still reads
Q4 SHORT and the standing Daily announcement is still the
2,253-bar bull print with CQI:NaN that the engine can't
normalize.
Resistance: 63,625.81-63,796.21 - the shelf that has capped
every bounce this cycle
Key resistance: 64,400.89-64,759.19 - the zone above
Current price: 63,010
Support: 62,459.75 - the level tested twice now
Key support: 61,862.27 - this cycle's low
Thesis line: 59,073.01 - the Daily low
Two paths from here:
Another challenge: Vol Elev climbs off the 8th percentile floor,
the stack reloads toward PARTIAL again, price makes another run
at 63,625. But the last two attempts at this exact trade (the
65,553 push on June 22 and yesterday's PARTIAL signal) both
failed at the same resistance zone.
The floor gives: price loses 62,459 for the third test, the
61,862 low fails to hold, and the thesis line at 59,073 becomes
the operative target. No PARTIAL signal or DISBELIEF flag loaded
on this side currently.
Two failed challenges at 63,625-65,553 in a week, followed by
immediate reversals, is a pattern. The bear print has now
outlasted every attempt to kill it. Whatever replaces it
eventually will need to bring something the last two runs didn't.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
BABA — Long-Term Structure in Focus — Next Bullish Leg?For investors with a medium- to long-term perspective, BABA is approaching a technically interesting area worth monitoring.
From a broader perspective, price has been trading inside a large ascending broadening wedge for an extended period, respecting its structure and reacting consistently around its boundaries.
At the moment, price is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, which also aligns with an important support area that has previously generated multiple strong rejections.
This confluence creates an interesting decision zone where market participants may start watching for signs of renewed buying pressure.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and confirms rejection, we may see a recovery move toward the green resistance zone, creating the potential for the next bullish leg within the broader structure.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, the focus shifts toward the lower support & demand zone, which may become the next area of interest to reassess long-term opportunities.
At this stage, the focus is not on anticipating direction, but on observing whether buyers can defend this historically respected region.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger the next rebound, or is the market preparing for a deeper corrective phase?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#BABA #Stocks #Alibaba #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermInvesting #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #RiskManagement
