XAUUSD: Bearish Reversal at 4,675 Resistance
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute chart is approaching a critical resistance/supply zone around 4,670–4,680 after a strong bullish move.
🔴 Bearish setup:
Price has pushed into the marked supply area and appears to be forming a potential liquidity sweep / SMT divergence near the highs. If buyers fail to break and hold above this zone, a downside reversal becomes likely.
Key levels:
🔴 Resistance / Supply: 4,670–4,680
🛑 Invalidation: Above 4,698
🎯 Target 1: 4,640
🎯 Target 2: 4,600
🎯 Target 3: 4,565
The 4,640 area is the first important downside level. A break below it could accelerate the move toward the sell-side liquidity around 4,595–4,600.
For the bearish scenario, the ideal confirmation would be a rejection from 4,670–4,680 followed by a break of the short-term rising structure.
Bias: 📉 Bearish below 4,680
Bullish invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 4,698.
Educational technical analysis, not financial advice. 
Short
XAUUSD: Bullish Structure Above Key Support🔹 XAUUSD continues to show a bullish market structure, with price forming higher highs and higher lows inside an ascending price channel. After the recent breakout from the prior consolidation range, momentum pushed price toward the 4,680–4,700 area before a mild pause. The highlighted support zone around 4,600–4,630 remains an important area to watch, as price is currently holding above it. The structure suggests buyers remain active while the higher-low sequence stays intact.
🔸 If XAUUSD continues to respect the highlighted support zone, price could attempt another move toward the upper part of the channel and the marked liquidity area near 4,760. A clear rejection from resistance could instead lead to consolidation or a deeper pullback toward lower support. Traders may wait for price confirmation around the key zones before considering any trade. If the 4,600 support area fails decisively, the current bullish structure could weaken and expose lower levels.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Long 
XAUUSD TRADING PLAN | 25/08/2026✅ XAUUSD/H1
Gold continues to maintain its bullish trend as price remains above key support levels and continues to trade above the rising trendline. The EMA structure also remains bullish, with EMA34 above EMA89. Currently, price is consolidating above the S1 support zone (4620–4625).
✅ VIEW TRADE
- Price has repeatedly rejected breaks below the S1 support zone (4620–4625), with buying pressure returning each time, while also forming a rising H1 trendline.
- If price rejects a breakdown and buying pressure returns, a continuation BUY setup can be considered, targeting R (4645–4650). Since price is currently consolidating within a narrow range, for safer trading, wait for a confirmed breakout above R (4645–4650) before entering BUY.
=> If the H1 candle confirms a complete breakout above R (4645–4650), a continuation BUY setup is valid, targeting 466x–468x.
=> The bullish momentum is expected to strengthen significantly if price breaks the recent high around (469x–470x). If price continues to reject the breakout and selling pressure returns, Gold may see a pullback of around 20–30 points.
- If price consolidates and completely breaks below S1 (4620–4625) while also breaking the H1 rising trendline, do not rush to BUY again. Wait for price reaction below the S2 support zone (4598–4604). If price rejects the breakdown at S2 and buying pressure returns, prioritize a BUY setup targeting S1 (4620–4625) and R (4645–4650).
- Selling pressure will regain control if price breaks and closes below the S2 support zone (4598–4604). Long 
Long
BTCUSDC 30M: Bullish Structure, FVG & Order Block SetupMarket Structure
BTCUSDC is showing a bullish market structure, supported by multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) 📈 and a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The broader structure remains constructive while price holds above key support and demand areas.
📈 Current Price Action
After a strong impulsive move higher, price is experiencing a short-term retracement 🔄. The marked scenario suggests that price may revisit the nearby imbalance and Order Block before a potential continuation.
🎯 Key Areas to Watch
🔵 30M FVG: The upper blue zone is an important imbalance area where price may react during the current pullback.
🟥 30M Order Block: The red zone below the FVG represents a key area of interest. A controlled retracement into this region could provide important information about whether bullish demand remains active.
🔵 Lower 30M FVG + OB: The deeper demand zone remains another significant area to watch if the higher support fails.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If price retraces into the marked 30M FVG + Order Block and shows a clear bullish reaction with confirmation, the broader bullish structure could remain intact. A recovery above nearby short-term highs would strengthen the case for a continuation toward higher liquidity and previous highs. 🚀
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If price breaks decisively below the marked Order Block and fails to reclaim the zone, the deeper 30M FVG + OB could become the next major area of interest. ⚠️
🧠 Trading Concept
This analysis focuses on market structure, BOS, support/resistance, Fair Value Gaps (FVG), Order Blocks, and trendline confluence. The marked zones should be treated as areas of interest, with price confirmation and risk management remaining essential. 🛡️
⚠️ Educational analysis only. This idea presents possible market scenarios based on technical analysis and does not guarantee future price movements or constitute financial advice. 
Long
Palladium - Bearish Momentum Begins to Weaken!Palladium remains bearish from a broader perspective, having traded inside the red descending channel for an extended period.
Lately, price broke above the descending channel, providing the first indication that bearish momentum is beginning to weaken. However, the bullish momentum has not been confirmed yet, as price is now testing the medium-term green resistance area, where another rejection may develop.
⭕As price tests this resistance, we can start looking for sell setups on lower timeframes, anticipating a potential rejection from the area.
⭕However, if buyers manage to break above the green resistance area, it would provide a stronger indication that bullish momentum is developing, with the focus shifting toward the red resistance area, where another potential reaction may occur.
The reaction around the green resistance may reveal whether buyers are ready to confirm the momentum shift, or if sellers are still able to defend the broader bearish structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.
Rayan Nasser
#Palladium #XPDUSD #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading #MarketStructure 
Short
BTC Ran To 81,265 - The Melt-Up Continues.BTC Ran To 81,265 - The Melt-Up Continues.
BTC broke through 80,000 and tagged a new high at 81,265, now trading 79,219. Monday's read was that holding 77,000 and breaking 79,500 keeps the melt-up alive toward the round number - and it did, clearing 80,000. The trend is relentless and the regime change is long confirmed. It is also more stretched than ever, with a high-sweep active at the highs. The read is unchanged and getting more emphatic: respect the trend, do not chase it here. Neutral.
Resistance: 81,265 - the new high
Key resistance: 82,000 - next round shelf
Current price: 79,219
Support: 78,028 - first support
Key support: 76,237 - the consolidation shelf
Structural floor: 74,182 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
It holds 78,028 and pushes 81,265. Momentum this strong can keep extending; holding the shelf keeps 81,265 and higher in play. Parabolas run further than seems reasonable while they last.
It finally pulls back. The high-sweep at new highs is the kind of exhaustion marker that precedes the first real pullback. A loss of 76,237 opens 74,182 - the first place to assess. The longer the melt-up, the sharper the eventual snap.
BTC cleared 80,000 and printed 81,265 - the melt-up keeps going. Nothing about the trend is in question; everything about the extension says do not chase. Respect it, watch for the first real pullback, and let that be the spot to assess.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. Long 
XAUUSD: Bullish Bounce Expected from Key Demand ZoneMarket Analysis
Structure: Gold (XAUUSD) underwent a Break of Structure (BOS) near 4,540, establishing strong bullish momentum.
Pattern: Following the initial impulse, price moved within a well-defined Upward Channel.
Current Action: Price experienced a correction out of the channel and is now holding right at the key Demand Zone around 4,625 – 4,635.
Trade Setup
Bias: Bullish Continuation / Rebound
Entry Zone: 4,625 - 4,635 (Current Demand Zone)
Target 1: 4,670 (Intermediate resistance / High of recent correction)
Target 2: 4,695 - 4,700 (Channel top / Major high)
Invalidation / Stop Loss: Below the bottom of the demand zone (~4,615). Long 
The Market Can Train You to Break Your Own RulesOne of the most dangerous things that can happen to a trader is not losing money after breaking a rule. It is making money after breaking one. Imagine a trader plans a trade with a $10 stop-loss. Price moves against the position, comes close to the stop, and the trader thinks, “I’ll give it a little more room.” The stop is moved to $20. Ten minutes later, the market reverses and the trade closes with a $30 profit. The trader feels relieved, perhaps even clever. Nothing bad happened. In fact, the decision appears to have been correct.
But psychologically, something much more important happened: the brain just received a reward for breaking the rule.
The Dangerous Lesson Hidden Inside a Winning Trade:
Trading rules are supposed to create consistency, but the brain does not learn only from whether a trade was profitable. It also learns from the connection between an action and its consequence. If moving a stop repeatedly leads to losses, the behavior will probably become less attractive.
But when moving the stop occasionally saves the trade and produces a profit, the lesson becomes much more complicated. This is where intermittent reinforcement comes into play. A behavior that receives rewards unpredictably can become surprisingly persistent.
In trading, the cycle can look like this:
break the rule → sometimes lose → sometimes get rewarded → keep trying.
The trader may not realize it, but the market is slowly teaching their brain that the rules are optional.
The Lucky Trade Can Be More Dangerous Than the Losing Trade:
Suppose a trader has a simple rule: never widen a stop-loss. On Monday, they move the stop and lose $20. The lesson seems obvious: “That was a bad decision.” On Wednesday, they do exactly the same thing, but this time the market reverses and the trade makes $40.
The lesson suddenly changes to: “Maybe I was right to give it more room.” That winning trade can be more psychologically dangerous than the losing one because it provides evidence that supports the bad behavior.
The next time price approaches the original stop, the trader may no longer remember the rule first. They remember Wednesday. They remember that waiting worked once, and that memory starts influencing the next decision.
The Market Doesn't Need to Reward You Often:
A trader does not need to be rewarded every time they break a rule for the behavior to become persistent. They only need occasional rewards to keep the possibility alive.
Imagine moving a stop five times: four times it results in a loss, but once it saves the trade and produces a large profit. That one dramatic recovery can become more memorable than the four ordinary losses.
This is one reason trading mistakes can become habits even when they are not consistently profitable. The trader begins following memorable exceptions instead of following the statistical logic of the strategy. Eventually, “I shouldn't do this” turns into “I normally shouldn't do this, but this setup is different.”
The Same Thing Happens With Taking Profits:
The same psychological mechanism can appear on the other side of a trade. Imagine a trader's plan is to target a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio. One day, the trade reaches 1:1, the trader becomes nervous, closes the position, and price immediately reverses.
The trader feels smart for getting out at the right time. The next time a trade reaches 1:1, the same memory comes back, so they close again. But this time, price continues toward the original 1:3 target.
The trader may think they are protecting profits, but they could actually be learning to react to the last emotionally powerful experience. One lucky early exit can slowly turn into a habit of cutting winners short.
Your Brain Doesn't Know Your Trading Plan Is Sacred:
A trading plan may look perfectly logical when you create it outside the market. You can define your entry, stop-loss, target and maximum risk without any emotional pressure. But once money is actually moving, your brain responds to immediate outcomes rather than simply obeying the plan.
If breaking a rule occasionally produces a dramatic reward, your brain can start assigning value to that behavior. This is why a profitable trade is not automatically a good trade. A trade can make money and still teach you a lesson that damages your future performance.
The result was profitable, but the behavior that produced it may have been destructive.
Judge the Decision, Not Just the Outcome:
The next time you break one of your trading rules and make money, don't immediately celebrate the result. Ask yourself a more uncomfortable question: **“If this exact decision had produced a loss, would I still consider it a good decision?”**
If the answer is no, you may be judging the quality of the decision by its outcome. That is a dangerous habit in a probabilistic environment like trading. A bad decision can make money, just as a good decision can lose money.
The important thing is whether the decision followed a process that you would be willing to repeat over hundreds of trades.
The market can forgive a bad decision once because price eventually moves in your favor. Your brain may not be so forgiving. It may remember the reward, ignore the rule, and wait for the next opportunity to repeat the behavior.
Sometimes the most dangerous trade is the one that breaks your rules and wins.
Education
Long
Long 
XAUUSD: Bearish ABC Correction From Sell Zone
Gold is still trading inside a strong higher-timeframe recovery, but the current short-term structure is showing correction risk. From Kelly’s view, price has reacted near the upper area after completing a bullish wave, and the next move may develop as an ABC pullback before buyers return again.
The key idea is simple: gold may rise slightly first into the sell zone, then continue lower to complete wave C.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,636 after rejecting from the upper resistance area. The chart shows price is holding below the 4,650–4,665 Sell wave B zone, while the stronger bullish confirmation is still far above near 4,697.
As long as gold stays below this resistance, the short-term structure favors a corrective move lower.
The first support to watch is 4,618. If this level breaks, price may continue towards the buy scalping zones around 4,600–4,610 and 4,570–4,580. The deeper target is the End wave C zone around 4,535–4,545.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,650–4,665: Sell wave B zone
◌ 4,636: current price area
◌ 4,618: strong support
◌ 4,600–4,610: first buy scalping area
◌ 4,570–4,580: second buy scalping area
◌ 4,535–4,545: End wave C target zone
◌ 4,697: bullish confirmation / invalidation area
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Gold may have completed a short-term bullish wave 5 near the recent high. After that, the current move is likely forming an ABC correction.
Wave A may be the first decline from the top.
Wave B may retest the 4,650–4,665 resistance zone.
Wave C may continue lower towards 4,535–4,545 if sellers remain in control.
This means Kelly is not chasing buys near the current price. The cleaner view is to wait for price reaction at resistance and follow the corrective structure lower.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the Sell wave B zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,650–4,665
Stop loss: above 4,697
Take profit 1: 4,618
Take profit 2: 4,570–4,580
Take profit 3: 4,535–4,545
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,697 and holds strongly, the bearish ABC correction may fail. In that case, the market may continue the bullish structure instead of dropping into wave C.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main short-term scenario is bearish correction. Gold is still near resistance, and the ABC structure is not complete yet.
If 4,650–4,665 holds as resistance, gold may continue lower towards 4,618 first, then 4,535–4,545 to complete wave C.
Share your view below. Short 
Gold (XAU/USD) Range-Bound Structure and Key Session Liquidity LWhat I am seeing: Gold price is currently consolidating inside the yellow rectangle after facing rejection at the First Session liquidity high near 4,681. Price is now testing the Second Session support and liquidity pools around 4,618.Why it matters: This 4,618–4,634 zone is a critical decision point where buyers and sellers are battling. Volume is tapering off, indicating an imminent breakout or reversal from this local floor.What I expect next:Bullish Scenario: If the 4,618 support level holds, price is highly likely to bounce back toward 4,660 and potentially challenge the 4,681 resistance.Bearish Scenario: A clean break below 4,618 will invalidate the bounce and likely trigger a drop toward the next key support level at 4,595. Short 
