[blackcat] L2 Ehlers Event Predictability
█ OVERVIEW
This indicator measures how predictable price becomes after a specific market "event" — a statistical concept introduced by John Ehlers. It collects the forward returns that followed every historical event, builds a distribution of outcomes, and plots its Center of Gravity (CG) so you can see at a glance whether events on this symbol tend to resolve up or down.
█ CONCEPTS
• Event detection: a short-term stochastic of price crossing under a low level (default 0.2) marks an "event" bar.
• Outcome sampling: each event's forward return over the lookback window (default 10 bars) is measured, clamped to ±10%, and rescaled into one of 100 bins.
• Center of Gravity: the weighted mean of the bins. CG above zero = past events were followed by up-moves; below zero = down-moves. Larger magnitude = stronger statistical skew.
• Signal engine: BUY/SELL fire only on turns of the CG line (edge-triggered), pass a position state machine and an optional cooldown, so the chart stays clean instead of labeling every bar.
█ HOW TO USE
1 — Add the indicator to any chart; it loads in a separate pane below price.
2 — Let history accumulate: statistics build from the bars loaded on your chart, so longer history gives a more stable CG.
3 — Read the line: lime circles = CG rising (bullish predictability improving), red circles = CG falling, gray = flat.
4 — Act on labels: BUY appears on an upturn of CG, SELL on a downturn. An opposite signal also closes the prior regime (reverse-exit logic).
5 — Set alerts on "BCL5EEP BUY", "BCL5EEP SELL", "BCL5EEP ANY Signal" or "BCL5EEP Event" — best used with "Once Per Bar Close".
Input Parameters
• Stochastic Length (10): lookback of the event stochastic.
• Price Source (hl2): price series feeding the stochastic.
• Event Trigger Level (0.2): level the stochastic must cross under to mark an event.
• Event Lookback (9): bars back used for the event reference and the forward-return window.
• Future Return Clamp (±10%): forward returns are clamped to this range before binning.
• State Machine Gate (on): suppresses repeated same-direction signals.
• Cooldown Bars (3): minimum bars between signals; 0 disables.
• TP/SL group: ATR-based stop/target reference (ATR 14, SL 2.0 xATR, TP 3.0 xATR), shown in the data window and dashboard.
• Visuals: toggles for signal labels, regime background and dashboard.
█ FEATURES
• Edge-triggered BUY/SELL labels carrying the CG value at signal time.
• Regime background tint and a live dashboard: regime, CG value and slope, event count, sample count, SL/TP levels.
• ATR-based SL/TP reference levels for the latest signal.
• Four alertcondition channels: BUY / SELL / ANY / EVENT.
█ LIMITATIONS
• CG is a running statistic of the chart's loaded history — it changes as data accumulates and differs across symbols and timeframes.
• Best treated as context for event-driven setups, not as a standalone trading system.
• Ranging markets can whipsaw the CG line; raise the cooldown or the trigger level to reduce noise.
• SL/TP values are visual references only — an indicator cannot place orders.
█ NOTES
• Based on the "Event Predictability" concept by John F. Ehlers; V2 adds the signal engine, risk reference, dashboard and alert suite.
• Open source under Mozilla Public License 2.0 — study, reuse and attribution welcome.
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
For questions or feedback, please use the comments section below.
Feel free to use and modify — attribution appreciated.
This indicator measures how predictable price becomes after a specific market "event" — a statistical concept introduced by John Ehlers. It collects the forward returns that followed every historical event, builds a distribution of outcomes, and plots its Center of Gravity (CG) so you can see at a glance whether events on this symbol tend to resolve up or down.
█ CONCEPTS
• Event detection: a short-term stochastic of price crossing under a low level (default 0.2) marks an "event" bar.
• Outcome sampling: each event's forward return over the lookback window (default 10 bars) is measured, clamped to ±10%, and rescaled into one of 100 bins.
• Center of Gravity: the weighted mean of the bins. CG above zero = past events were followed by up-moves; below zero = down-moves. Larger magnitude = stronger statistical skew.
• Signal engine: BUY/SELL fire only on turns of the CG line (edge-triggered), pass a position state machine and an optional cooldown, so the chart stays clean instead of labeling every bar.
█ HOW TO USE
1 — Add the indicator to any chart; it loads in a separate pane below price.
2 — Let history accumulate: statistics build from the bars loaded on your chart, so longer history gives a more stable CG.
3 — Read the line: lime circles = CG rising (bullish predictability improving), red circles = CG falling, gray = flat.
4 — Act on labels: BUY appears on an upturn of CG, SELL on a downturn. An opposite signal also closes the prior regime (reverse-exit logic).
5 — Set alerts on "BCL5EEP BUY", "BCL5EEP SELL", "BCL5EEP ANY Signal" or "BCL5EEP Event" — best used with "Once Per Bar Close".
Input Parameters
• Stochastic Length (10): lookback of the event stochastic.
• Price Source (hl2): price series feeding the stochastic.
• Event Trigger Level (0.2): level the stochastic must cross under to mark an event.
• Event Lookback (9): bars back used for the event reference and the forward-return window.
• Future Return Clamp (±10%): forward returns are clamped to this range before binning.
• State Machine Gate (on): suppresses repeated same-direction signals.
• Cooldown Bars (3): minimum bars between signals; 0 disables.
• TP/SL group: ATR-based stop/target reference (ATR 14, SL 2.0 xATR, TP 3.0 xATR), shown in the data window and dashboard.
• Visuals: toggles for signal labels, regime background and dashboard.
█ FEATURES
• Edge-triggered BUY/SELL labels carrying the CG value at signal time.
• Regime background tint and a live dashboard: regime, CG value and slope, event count, sample count, SL/TP levels.
• ATR-based SL/TP reference levels for the latest signal.
• Four alertcondition channels: BUY / SELL / ANY / EVENT.
█ LIMITATIONS
• CG is a running statistic of the chart's loaded history — it changes as data accumulates and differs across symbols and timeframes.
• Best treated as context for event-driven setups, not as a standalone trading system.
• Ranging markets can whipsaw the CG line; raise the cooldown or the trigger level to reduce noise.
• SL/TP values are visual references only — an indicator cannot place orders.
█ NOTES
• Based on the "Event Predictability" concept by John F. Ehlers; V2 adds the signal engine, risk reference, dashboard and alert suite.
• Open source under Mozilla Public License 2.0 — study, reuse and attribution welcome.
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
For questions or feedback, please use the comments section below.
Feel free to use and modify — attribution appreciated.
Don't miss out! The first and most important thing to do is to join my Discord chat now! Click here to start your adventure: discord.com/invite/ZTGpQJq My new github for more pine development soon: github.com/wxt-coder
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Don't miss out! The first and most important thing to do is to join my Discord chat now! Click here to start your adventure: discord.com/invite/ZTGpQJq My new github for more pine development soon: github.com/wxt-coder
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.