Momentum Strategy (BTC/USDT; 1h) - MACD (with source code)Good morning traders.
It's been a while from my last publication of a strategy and today I want to share with you this small piece of script that showed quite interesting result across bitcoin and other altcoins.
The macd indicator is an indicator built on the difference between a fast moving average and a slow moving average: this difference is generally plottted with a blue line while the orange line is simply a moving average computed on this difference.
Usually this indicator is used in technical analysis for getting signals of buy and sell respectively when the macd crosses above or under its moving average: it means that the distance of the fast moving average (the most responsive one) from the slower one is getting lower than what it-used-to-be in the period considered: this could anticipate a cross of the two moving averages and you want to anticipate this potential trend reversal by opening a long position
Of course the workflow is specularly the same for opening short positions (or closing long positions)
What this strategy does is simply considering the moving average computed on macd and applying a linear regression on it: in this way, even though the signal can be sligthly delayed, you reduce noise plotting a smooth curve.
Then, it simply checks the maximums and the minimums of this curve detecting whenever the changes of the values start to be negative or positive, so it opens a short position (closes long) on the maximum on this curve and it opens a long position (closes short) on the minimum.
Of course, I set an option for using this strategy in a conventional way working on the crosses between macd and its moving average. Alternatively you can use this workflow if you prefer.
In conclusion, you can use a tons of moving averages: I made a function in pine in order to allw you to use any moving average you want for the two moving averages on which the macd is based or for the moving average computed on the macd
PLEASE, BE AWARE THAT THIS TRADING STRATEGY DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANY KIND OF SUCCESS IN ADVANCE. YOU ARE THE ONE AND ONLY RESPONSIBLE OF YOUR OWN DECISIONS, I DON'T TAKE ANY RESPONSIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. IF YOU RUN THIS STRATEGY YOU ACCEPT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOSING MONEY, ALL OF MY PUBBLICATIONS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES.
IT IS AT YOUR OWN RISK WHETHER TO USE IT OR NOT
But if you make money out of this, please consider to buy me a beer 😜
Happy Trading! Strategi

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MACD including 6-period Forecast and Divergences█ OVERVIEW
This is my personal interpretation of the classic MACD Indicator. I am using the MACD as part of my analysis, and often I was wondering when I can expect the next signal (e.g. a Histogram cross). As I had come across some EMA forecast logics on tradingview, my goal was to use the EMA forecast calculation as basis to come to a complete MACD forecast. Here is the result.
Starting point is the classic MACD which is then plotted with MACD-Line, Signal Line and Histogram. In addition to the classic MACD, a 6 period Forecast for MACD, Signal and Histogram is available and divergences can be displayed on either the Histogram or the MACD Line.
Important:
As I am considering the closing price of the current candle as the basis for the calculation, the forecast values will REPAINT. But in my opinion this is fine as this indicator will not provide direct trading signals, but more an outlook into a potential future.
█ CALCULATION LOGIC
Below some details regarding the additional functionalities:
MACD Forecast:
The MACD Forecast is mainly based on a combination of EMA Forecasts. The inspiration for this basic forecast calculation is taken from the below tradingview members:
--> EMA Forecast input taken from "Triple MA Forecast" by yatrader2
--> Forecast Bias input taken from "Fancy Bollinger Bands" by BigBitsIO
When showing the forecast, the following options are available:
- Forecast Type: Determines if the Forecast is assuming a Flat price (last values of the MA calculation are replaced by current value) or if a Linear Regression is taken
- Number of candles taken for Linear Regression Calculation
- Bias of Forecast (Based on the recent Average True Range, the forecast values are either more bullish or more bearish calculated. "Neutral" turns off this function)
- Number of ATR Periods used to calculate Bias adjustment value
- Possibility to weight the Bias via a Multiplier - Default value is 1
Based on the above inputs, the forecasted values for MACD, Signal Line and Histogram are calculated and plotted for the next 6 periods.
Divergence Detection:
Based on the default tradingview divergence script with some adjustments:
- User can select to use either Histogram or MACD Line as basis for Divergence detection (Histogram by default)
- User can select if Divergence detection should be based on the candles including Wicks or only the Candle Bodies (Wicks by default)
█ DISCLAIMER
This is an experimental indicator and I do not know if my theory works in real life. So treat this not as financial advise, but purely for entertainment and educational purposes.
I publish this code open so that everyone can re-use it or hopefully even improve it.
Let me know if you have any ideas for improvement and if it is within my coding capabilities (which to be honest are quite limited), I will try to accomodate it.
Have fun. Indikator

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