AVAX / TetherUS
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AVAX — Next Stop $40?

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AVAX has been one of the stronger high-cap performers recently, but the yearly open at $36 has proven to be a tough ceiling. Price has rejected this level three times already, each time offering short opportunities. This level also aligns with the 15B market cap, making it a key resistance zone.

Now, AVAX is retracing into a prime area for long setups, retracing part of the recent 5-wave impulse.

🟢 Long Entry Zone
  • 0.618 Fib retracement: $32 → first bounce zone
  • 0.786 Fib retracement: $30.85 → deeper entry opportunity
  • 0.886 Fib retracement: $30 → highest confluence long entry
  • Invalidation: Below $29.41 (origin of the impulse)

Confluence at $30

The $30 level is the strongest support cluster, backed by multiple technical factors:
  • POC of this trading range
  • 0.886 Fib retracement of the impulse
  • 21 EMA/SMA (daily timeframe)
  • Anchored VWAP support
  • $30 psychological round number
  • 0.618 Fib speed fan support

This makes laddering entries from $32 down to $30 the most optimal approach.

Targets
  • First Target: $36 yearly open → retest of major resistance (fourth attempt)
  • Main Target: $40 resistance cluster → 0.618 Fib retracement, negative -0.618 Fib extension
  • R:R: 1:3 up to 1:6 depending on entry

Educational Insight

When analysing trades, confluence is king. A single indicator may provide a signal, but when multiple tools align at the same level the probability of that zone holding increases significantly.

The $30 zone for AVAX is a great example of confluence stacking. This doesn’t guarantee success, but it gives traders a defined edge with a clear invalidation point. The same logic applies to resistance: at $40, multiple technical layers align, making it a high-probability take-profit zone.

Quick Take

AVAX is pulling back into a stacked support zone. With solid confluence at $30–$32, this zone sets up the fourth attempt at breaking the $36 yearly open resistance.

And as the saying goes in trading: the 4th touch often breaks. If it does, AVAX could quickly rally toward the $40 resistance cluster, where multiple confluences align.

Indicators used
  • DriftLine — Pivot Open Zones [SiDec] → For identifying key yearly/monthly/weekly/daily opens that act as major S/R reference points
  • Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones [SiDec] → to identify support and resistance zones such as the Daily 21 EMA/SMA.
  • LuxAlgo — Liquidity Sentiment Profile (Auto-Anchored)

➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.

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הערה
AVAX Update — Max Pain Reversal Zone Hit
תמונת-בזק
AVAX skipped the golden pocket and went straight into the max pain scenario, finding support and bouncing within the 0.786–0.886 Fib retracement zone.

This area often acts as a final liquidity grab and strong reversal zone, making it a max pain reversal setup.

📌 Setup is clear, invalidation below $30.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
תמונת-בזק
Very weak reaction at $30. With this key level lost, the next high-probability setup lies around $28, where an FVG and liquidity pocket align. Lets see if we get this drop =)

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