SMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of BTCUSD – Daily (1D) chart using SMC + Fibonacci + EMA mean-reversion logic.
⸻
Market Context
• Higher-timeframe bias: Bullish (macro)
• Long-term structure still intact despite the pullback
• Current move down = deep corrective phase, not confirmed trend reversal yet
• Price is trading below EMA 50, but reacting near EMA 200 + HTF support
⸻
What Happened (Why BTC Dropped)
• Liquidity taken at the October high
• Sharp impulsive sell-off → distribution + stop-hunt
• Price retraced into a high-confluence discount zone
⸻
Key Demand / Accumulation Zone (Blue Area)
~85,000 – 92,000
This zone is important because it aligns with:
• Fib OTE zone (0.705 – 0.79)
• Previous daily demand
• Range low support
• Proximity to EMA 50 (93K) → mean reversion magnet
• Multiple long lower wicks → absorption
This suggests smart money accumulation, not panic selling.
⸻
Fibonacci Logic
Measured from major swing low → all-time high
• 0.5 & 0.62 → failed supports
• 0.705 – 0.79 → institutional rebalance zone
Textbook location for trend continuation buys
⸻
Trade Idea (Swing Long)
Buy on confirmation inside demand
• Entry: 86,000 – 90,000
• Stop Loss: Below demand (~82,000)
• Targets:
• TP1: 93,000 (EMA 50)
• TP2: 101,800 (EMA 200 / mid-range)
• Final TP: 121,000+ (marked target point / liquidity above highs)
RR potential: 1:4 to 1:6 (swing setup)
⸻
Confirmation Signals (Very Important on BTC)
Wait for at least one:
• Daily or 4H bullish engulfing
• Strong rejection wick from demand
• 4H CHoCH after sweep of lows
• Compression → expansion behavior
⸻
Invalidation
• Daily close below ~82,000
• Acceptance below demand with strong volume
If that happens → bullish swing idea is invalid, and market likely seeks lower HTF liquidity.
⸻ Mr SMC Trading point
Summary
This is a high-timeframe accumulation & continuation setup:
• Deep discount
• Fib OTE + demand
• EMA mean reversion
BTC rewards patience and HTF discipline — confirmation > prediction.
If you want, I can:
• Break this into a 4H / 1H execution plan
• Help you build a BTC-specific SMC swing model
• Or map bearish alternative scenarios for risk control
Please support boost this analysis
Technical analysis of BTCUSD – Daily (1D) chart using SMC + Fibonacci + EMA mean-reversion logic.
⸻
Market Context
• Higher-timeframe bias: Bullish (macro)
• Long-term structure still intact despite the pullback
• Current move down = deep corrective phase, not confirmed trend reversal yet
• Price is trading below EMA 50, but reacting near EMA 200 + HTF support
⸻
What Happened (Why BTC Dropped)
• Liquidity taken at the October high
• Sharp impulsive sell-off → distribution + stop-hunt
• Price retraced into a high-confluence discount zone
⸻
Key Demand / Accumulation Zone (Blue Area)
~85,000 – 92,000
This zone is important because it aligns with:
• Fib OTE zone (0.705 – 0.79)
• Previous daily demand
• Range low support
• Proximity to EMA 50 (93K) → mean reversion magnet
• Multiple long lower wicks → absorption
This suggests smart money accumulation, not panic selling.
⸻
Fibonacci Logic
Measured from major swing low → all-time high
• 0.5 & 0.62 → failed supports
• 0.705 – 0.79 → institutional rebalance zone
Textbook location for trend continuation buys
⸻
Trade Idea (Swing Long)
Buy on confirmation inside demand
• Entry: 86,000 – 90,000
• Stop Loss: Below demand (~82,000)
• Targets:
• TP1: 93,000 (EMA 50)
• TP2: 101,800 (EMA 200 / mid-range)
• Final TP: 121,000+ (marked target point / liquidity above highs)
RR potential: 1:4 to 1:6 (swing setup)
⸻
Confirmation Signals (Very Important on BTC)
Wait for at least one:
• Daily or 4H bullish engulfing
• Strong rejection wick from demand
• 4H CHoCH after sweep of lows
• Compression → expansion behavior
⸻
Invalidation
• Daily close below ~82,000
• Acceptance below demand with strong volume
If that happens → bullish swing idea is invalid, and market likely seeks lower HTF liquidity.
⸻ Mr SMC Trading point
Summary
This is a high-timeframe accumulation & continuation setup:
• Deep discount
• Fib OTE + demand
• EMA mean reversion
BTC rewards patience and HTF discipline — confirmation > prediction.
If you want, I can:
• Break this into a 4H / 1H execution plan
• Help you build a BTC-specific SMC swing model
• Or map bearish alternative scenarios for risk control
Please support boost this analysis
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
(Services:✔️ JOIN Telegram channel
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
Join my recommended broker , link 👇
World best broker exness ✅D
one.exnesstrack.org/a/l1t1rf3p6v
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
Join my recommended broker , link 👇
World best broker exness ✅D
one.exnesstrack.org/a/l1t1rf3p6v
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.