Bitcoin bulls risk a reality check as BTC price action mimics the 2022 "bear market rally."
Key points:
Bitcoin "appears" to be at the start of another bear market as price remains below its yearly moving average.
The latest rebound makes clearing the trendline at $101,000 all the more important.
Exchange inflows show sellers exiting in advance throughout this week.
Bitcoin bear market risk remains below $101,000
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that 2026 remains similar to Bitcoin's previous bear market year.
"Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a 'bear market rally," it wrote in its latest Weekly Report issued Friday.
Bitcoin may be up more than 20% since its $80,500 lows in November 2025, but that is not enough to guarantee a lasting rebound. The reason, CryptoQuant says, lies with the 365-day moving average.
"The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K," it continued.
The senior commodity strategist observed that historically, when safe haven assets like gold surge, risk assets like Bitcoin often struggle soon after. He implies that Bitcoin's current market strength might not be sustainable under these conditions.
McGlone believes that prevailing market conditions suggest that assets are mispriced and a correction could be looming. He warned that Bitcoin is now vulnerable to price decline as the asset has overheated.
Another analyst and long-time Bitcoin skeptic, Peter Schiff also believes that Bitcoin might face a crash. As U.Today reported, Schiff urged investors betting on the coin to sell their holdings now before the next crash.
Notably, in October 2025, the Bitcoin price surged rapidly and peaked at $126,198.07. The coin has faced severe dips since then, plunging to a low of $84,000 in the last 30 days. Despite showing potential for upward momentum, the flagship crypto asset has not been able to breach the psychological $100,000 level.
Matt Hougan's bullish forecast
As of press time, the Bitcoin price was changing hands at $95,076.40, which represents a 0.99% decline in the last 24 hours. The coin had fluctuated between a daily range of $95,103.24 and $97,015.35 before settling at the current market price.
Trading volume is also down by 24.88% to $43.8 billion. The market supply of Bitcoin surged after miners' sell-off. Some market participants are concerned of possible sell pressure if volume remains in the red zone and price rejection at $96,000 continues.
Regardless of this setup, Bitcoin's dominance stands at 59.17%, suggesting that investors favor the coin over altcoin assets. If Bitcoin is able to stabilize above the $93,000 price, it could regain its bullish momentum to reattempt the elusive $100,000.
Bitwise's Mat Hougan believes that Bitcoin will mirror gold's explosive growth soon. He maintains that if the exchange-traded fund demand is sustained, the price will move parabolic.
The findings add more significance to the area around $101,000, which is already home to multiple resistance hurdles.
As Cointelegraph reported, bear market comparisons to 2022 have gained popularity in recent weeks and months, with forecasts including a retreat toward $65,000 during 2026
What's more, two key weekly moving averages - the 23-week and the 50-week - are bending into a potential death cross right around the same price. This is not a minor crossover in a short time frame. It is a rare, high-signal setup that often marks macro pivot points. If that cross completes, Bitcoin risks staying
below six figures much longer than bulls are expecting.
Triple resistance for Bitcoin
Take a look at the daily chart, and you will see another resistance pop up: the 200-day moving average. It is sitting just above $99,000, which puts more pressure on the market, squeezing price action into a triple-layer resistance wall.
Thus, while everyone is rushing into the long side again, hoping for a clean break to $107,000 or even the post-ETF target at $124,000, the price history reminds us that the "irst kiss" of the Bollinger's midband after a correction does not come easy - - and often fails.
Bitcoin might still punch through. But if it does, it will not be because of the trend lines. It will be in spite of them.
#Write2Earn #BinanceSquareFamily #Binance #BTC #SUBROOFFICIAL
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
Key points:
Bitcoin "appears" to be at the start of another bear market as price remains below its yearly moving average.
The latest rebound makes clearing the trendline at $101,000 all the more important.
Exchange inflows show sellers exiting in advance throughout this week.
Bitcoin bear market risk remains below $101,000
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that 2026 remains similar to Bitcoin's previous bear market year.
"Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a 'bear market rally," it wrote in its latest Weekly Report issued Friday.
Bitcoin may be up more than 20% since its $80,500 lows in November 2025, but that is not enough to guarantee a lasting rebound. The reason, CryptoQuant says, lies with the 365-day moving average.
"The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K," it continued.
The senior commodity strategist observed that historically, when safe haven assets like gold surge, risk assets like Bitcoin often struggle soon after. He implies that Bitcoin's current market strength might not be sustainable under these conditions.
McGlone believes that prevailing market conditions suggest that assets are mispriced and a correction could be looming. He warned that Bitcoin is now vulnerable to price decline as the asset has overheated.
Another analyst and long-time Bitcoin skeptic, Peter Schiff also believes that Bitcoin might face a crash. As U.Today reported, Schiff urged investors betting on the coin to sell their holdings now before the next crash.
Notably, in October 2025, the Bitcoin price surged rapidly and peaked at $126,198.07. The coin has faced severe dips since then, plunging to a low of $84,000 in the last 30 days. Despite showing potential for upward momentum, the flagship crypto asset has not been able to breach the psychological $100,000 level.
Matt Hougan's bullish forecast
As of press time, the Bitcoin price was changing hands at $95,076.40, which represents a 0.99% decline in the last 24 hours. The coin had fluctuated between a daily range of $95,103.24 and $97,015.35 before settling at the current market price.
Trading volume is also down by 24.88% to $43.8 billion. The market supply of Bitcoin surged after miners' sell-off. Some market participants are concerned of possible sell pressure if volume remains in the red zone and price rejection at $96,000 continues.
Regardless of this setup, Bitcoin's dominance stands at 59.17%, suggesting that investors favor the coin over altcoin assets. If Bitcoin is able to stabilize above the $93,000 price, it could regain its bullish momentum to reattempt the elusive $100,000.
Bitwise's Mat Hougan believes that Bitcoin will mirror gold's explosive growth soon. He maintains that if the exchange-traded fund demand is sustained, the price will move parabolic.
The findings add more significance to the area around $101,000, which is already home to multiple resistance hurdles.
As Cointelegraph reported, bear market comparisons to 2022 have gained popularity in recent weeks and months, with forecasts including a retreat toward $65,000 during 2026
What's more, two key weekly moving averages - the 23-week and the 50-week - are bending into a potential death cross right around the same price. This is not a minor crossover in a short time frame. It is a rare, high-signal setup that often marks macro pivot points. If that cross completes, Bitcoin risks staying
below six figures much longer than bulls are expecting.
Triple resistance for Bitcoin
Take a look at the daily chart, and you will see another resistance pop up: the 200-day moving average. It is sitting just above $99,000, which puts more pressure on the market, squeezing price action into a triple-layer resistance wall.
Thus, while everyone is rushing into the long side again, hoping for a clean break to $107,000 or even the post-ETF target at $124,000, the price history reminds us that the "irst kiss" of the Bollinger's midband after a correction does not come easy - - and often fails.
Bitcoin might still punch through. But if it does, it will not be because of the trend lines. It will be in spite of them.
#Write2Earn #BinanceSquareFamily #Binance #BTC #SUBROOFFICIAL
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
פרסומים קשורים
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
פרסומים קשורים
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.