They used to say "never sell CSL", they were right up until it peaked on March 2020. This was at the height of the Covid dump, whilst other stocks crashed; CSL was putting in a supercycle top. If you didn't sell the top, you are now down 72% since the all time high. Ouch!
CSL is not any old stock, this is a leader in the ASX, one of the greatest businesses out of Australia. I was closely looking at this stock less than a year ago, fortunately I only purchased a tracker share and didn't pull the trigger for a bigger order, as it didn't have any positive momentum. Little did I know that management would fall apart and the business would have a $5 billion non cash impairment charge scheduled across FY26 and FY27. This triggered a massive sell off event, the stock capitulated to levels not seen since 2016. Yikes!
This used to be a growth stock, now I am looking at it as a turnaround play. This requires patience and belief, I think the market is over reacting here and this business presents an opportunity. If you have 1-2 years and can stomach volatility, this stock may be for you.
I consider CSL a wide moat business. It is split between CSL Behring (plasma, 70% revenue), CSL Seqirus (flu vaccines, 20% business), and CSL Vifor (10% of business). Trading at $97 AUD against a $3.1 billion cash profit run rat puts CSL at an implied forward multiple of 10.1x NPATA. I think patient investors are getting a 50% margin of safety at current levels.
The technicals suggest a complete flush out of sellers, an RSI of 16 on the weekly completely resets the RSI from the previous cycle low. This is a rubber band setup that value investors look for, to ensure sellers have completely exited.
My technical analysis has so far caught the exact love of the move, but I would like to see it reclaim $100 AUD and show some positive momentum. If it fails to hold $94, this could head down another 50%, I don't think that will happen but anything is possible given how badly this business has been managed in recent years.
Whilst the world clamours over AI stocks, and tech puts in a euphorics high, I am looking at deep value plays in dividend compounders - CSL ticks the box.
Keep a close eye on this, not financial advice.
CSL is not any old stock, this is a leader in the ASX, one of the greatest businesses out of Australia. I was closely looking at this stock less than a year ago, fortunately I only purchased a tracker share and didn't pull the trigger for a bigger order, as it didn't have any positive momentum. Little did I know that management would fall apart and the business would have a $5 billion non cash impairment charge scheduled across FY26 and FY27. This triggered a massive sell off event, the stock capitulated to levels not seen since 2016. Yikes!
This used to be a growth stock, now I am looking at it as a turnaround play. This requires patience and belief, I think the market is over reacting here and this business presents an opportunity. If you have 1-2 years and can stomach volatility, this stock may be for you.
I consider CSL a wide moat business. It is split between CSL Behring (plasma, 70% revenue), CSL Seqirus (flu vaccines, 20% business), and CSL Vifor (10% of business). Trading at $97 AUD against a $3.1 billion cash profit run rat puts CSL at an implied forward multiple of 10.1x NPATA. I think patient investors are getting a 50% margin of safety at current levels.
The technicals suggest a complete flush out of sellers, an RSI of 16 on the weekly completely resets the RSI from the previous cycle low. This is a rubber band setup that value investors look for, to ensure sellers have completely exited.
My technical analysis has so far caught the exact love of the move, but I would like to see it reclaim $100 AUD and show some positive momentum. If it fails to hold $94, this could head down another 50%, I don't think that will happen but anything is possible given how badly this business has been managed in recent years.
Whilst the world clamours over AI stocks, and tech puts in a euphorics high, I am looking at deep value plays in dividend compounders - CSL ticks the box.
Keep a close eye on this, not financial advice.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.