Yesterday was rough for tech with Nasdaq dropping over 1.3% after GOOGL's capex guidance spooked the market. MSFT down nearly 5% didn't help either. But overnight we got some relief - Amazon announcing $200B in AI infrastructure spending gave futures a decent lift. VIX pulled back from the 21+ levels which is helping stabilize things a bit.
ES bounced off the 6820 area and pushed back up toward the prior range. We're currently sitting around the 6850-6860 zone which is right at VWAP and the prior day's equilibrium. The bounce looks corrective so far rather than impulsive.
Forecast:
- Overnight: Choppy consolidation with slight upward drift
- Morning Session: Expecting a push into 6865-6875 resistance zone
- Afternoon: Likely fade if rejection at resistance holds
- Daily Close: Targeting below 6850 if short setup triggers
- Expected Range: 6825 to 6890
- Most Likely Path: Grind up into 6865-6875, find sellers, mean revert back toward 6840-6825
Friday Events:
- Pre-market: Watching for continuation of tech bounce
- Morning: Jobs data aftermath still influencing sentiment
- VIX: Currently around 20 - elevated but cooling
- After the bell: Light earnings calendar
Resistance:
- 6960-7005 – Major resistance, 7005 is the RTH High from earlier this week
- 6900-6920 – Upper resistance zone, would need strong momentum to reach
- 6880-6890 – Secondary resistance, this is where the short thesis gets invalidated
- 6865-6875 – Primary zone of interest, entry zone for mean reversion short
Support:
- 6845-6840 – First support and T1 target for shorts
- 6825-6835 – T2 target zone, prior support area
- 6800-6820 – Major support and T3, this is the key level bulls need to hold
- 6760-6780 – Deep support, only in play if 6800 breaks
Critical Level:
- 6850 – VWAP and equilibrium pivot, the line in the sand for intraday bias
Strategic Bias - Mean Reversion Short:
The setup here is a mean reversion short looking for a fade off the 6865-6875 resistance zone. Here's the thinking:
- Structure: The 1H chart shows a lower high pattern forming. Yesterday's selloff created a clear supply zone in the 6865-6890 area. The overnight bounce looks like a retracement into that supply rather than a trend reversal.
- Context: Despite the bounce, the broader picture still shows weakness. Tech got hit hard and one Amazon headline doesn't fix the GOOGL/MSFT damage. Buyers need to prove themselves above 6880 for me to flip bullish.
- The Play: Looking for price to push into 6865-6875 and show rejection (wicks, failed breakout, momentum divergence). If we get that, the trade is short targeting VWAP at 6850 first, then 6840, with a runner toward 6825.
- Risk: Stop above 6881. If price closes above that level with momentum, the lower high thesis is dead and shorts need to step aside.
- Invalidation: A strong push through 6890 with follow-through would shift bias to neutral/bullish and open up a run toward 6920+.
How I'm seeing it:
- Bearish bias below 6880, looking for mean reversion short at 6865-6875
- First target is VWAP at 6850, then 6840, extended target 6825
- If 6881 breaks with conviction, step aside - bulls taking control
- Below 6800 would confirm broader weakness and open 6760-6780
The overnight bounce gave us a setup. Now it's about waiting for price to reach the zone and show its hand. No need to chase - let the trade come to us.
Good Luck !!!
ES bounced off the 6820 area and pushed back up toward the prior range. We're currently sitting around the 6850-6860 zone which is right at VWAP and the prior day's equilibrium. The bounce looks corrective so far rather than impulsive.
Forecast:
- Overnight: Choppy consolidation with slight upward drift
- Morning Session: Expecting a push into 6865-6875 resistance zone
- Afternoon: Likely fade if rejection at resistance holds
- Daily Close: Targeting below 6850 if short setup triggers
- Expected Range: 6825 to 6890
- Most Likely Path: Grind up into 6865-6875, find sellers, mean revert back toward 6840-6825
Friday Events:
- Pre-market: Watching for continuation of tech bounce
- Morning: Jobs data aftermath still influencing sentiment
- VIX: Currently around 20 - elevated but cooling
- After the bell: Light earnings calendar
Resistance:
- 6960-7005 – Major resistance, 7005 is the RTH High from earlier this week
- 6900-6920 – Upper resistance zone, would need strong momentum to reach
- 6880-6890 – Secondary resistance, this is where the short thesis gets invalidated
- 6865-6875 – Primary zone of interest, entry zone for mean reversion short
Support:
- 6845-6840 – First support and T1 target for shorts
- 6825-6835 – T2 target zone, prior support area
- 6800-6820 – Major support and T3, this is the key level bulls need to hold
- 6760-6780 – Deep support, only in play if 6800 breaks
Critical Level:
- 6850 – VWAP and equilibrium pivot, the line in the sand for intraday bias
Strategic Bias - Mean Reversion Short:
The setup here is a mean reversion short looking for a fade off the 6865-6875 resistance zone. Here's the thinking:
- Structure: The 1H chart shows a lower high pattern forming. Yesterday's selloff created a clear supply zone in the 6865-6890 area. The overnight bounce looks like a retracement into that supply rather than a trend reversal.
- Context: Despite the bounce, the broader picture still shows weakness. Tech got hit hard and one Amazon headline doesn't fix the GOOGL/MSFT damage. Buyers need to prove themselves above 6880 for me to flip bullish.
- The Play: Looking for price to push into 6865-6875 and show rejection (wicks, failed breakout, momentum divergence). If we get that, the trade is short targeting VWAP at 6850 first, then 6840, with a runner toward 6825.
- Risk: Stop above 6881. If price closes above that level with momentum, the lower high thesis is dead and shorts need to step aside.
- Invalidation: A strong push through 6890 with follow-through would shift bias to neutral/bullish and open up a run toward 6920+.
How I'm seeing it:
- Bearish bias below 6880, looking for mean reversion short at 6865-6875
- First target is VWAP at 6850, then 6840, extended target 6825
- If 6881 breaks with conviction, step aside - bulls taking control
- Below 6800 would confirm broader weakness and open 6760-6780
The overnight bounce gave us a setup. Now it's about waiting for price to reach the zone and show its hand. No need to chase - let the trade come to us.
Good Luck !!!
info@algoindex.com, algoindex.com | Join our free trading community: facebook.com/groups/1256769122661043
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
info@algoindex.com, algoindex.com | Join our free trading community: facebook.com/groups/1256769122661043
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.