1️⃣ Market Structure (Most Important)
• We had an uptrend (trend line, higher lows)
• A breakout from the trend occurred
• Price did not return above the line → structure changed to BEARISH/distribution
📉 This is not a bullish correction, but a full breakout of the structure
⸻
2️⃣ Key Price Levels
🟢 Former Supports (Now Resistances)
• $4,015 – Major Weekly Supply ❌
• $3,435 – Strong Resistance after Distribution ❌
• $2,787 – Key Support ➜ Broken by Impulse
➡️ 2,787 = Now Resistance, Not Support
⸻
🔴 Current Situation
• Price: ~$2,340
• We are just above the local low
• Weak demand response, no strong Wicks
⸻
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators
🔹 Stochastic RSI
• Falling into oversold
• No clear upward crossover
📌 In a downtrend → not a long signal, but a warning for shorts
⸻
🔹 RSI (classic)
• Below 50
• Rejected from the mean
➡️ Bearish Momentum
⸻
4️⃣ Scenarios (realistic)
🔴 Baseline Scenario (60–70%)
• Short bounce to 2600–2800
• Rejection at former support
• Continuation of declines to:
• $2230 (local low)
• ~$2000 (psychological + liquidity)
• $1455 (weekly demand – (extreme)
⸻
🟡 Alternative scenario (30–40%)
• Defense 2230–2340
• Consolidation
• Attempt to return above 2787
❗ Only a weekly close > 2800 changes the bias
• We had an uptrend (trend line, higher lows)
• A breakout from the trend occurred
• Price did not return above the line → structure changed to BEARISH/distribution
📉 This is not a bullish correction, but a full breakout of the structure
⸻
2️⃣ Key Price Levels
🟢 Former Supports (Now Resistances)
• $4,015 – Major Weekly Supply ❌
• $3,435 – Strong Resistance after Distribution ❌
• $2,787 – Key Support ➜ Broken by Impulse
➡️ 2,787 = Now Resistance, Not Support
⸻
🔴 Current Situation
• Price: ~$2,340
• We are just above the local low
• Weak demand response, no strong Wicks
⸻
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators
🔹 Stochastic RSI
• Falling into oversold
• No clear upward crossover
📌 In a downtrend → not a long signal, but a warning for shorts
⸻
🔹 RSI (classic)
• Below 50
• Rejected from the mean
➡️ Bearish Momentum
⸻
4️⃣ Scenarios (realistic)
🔴 Baseline Scenario (60–70%)
• Short bounce to 2600–2800
• Rejection at former support
• Continuation of declines to:
• $2230 (local low)
• ~$2000 (psychological + liquidity)
• $1455 (weekly demand – (extreme)
⸻
🟡 Alternative scenario (30–40%)
• Defense 2230–2340
• Consolidation
• Attempt to return above 2787
❗ Only a weekly close > 2800 changes the bias
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.