📊 Trade Plan:
🔻 Entry: 1.14050
🛑 Stop Loss: above 100 EMA / supply zone
🎯 Take Profit 1: 1.13630
🎯 Take Profit 2: 1.13220
📉 Technical Picture (H4 & Daily):
100 EMA: Price bounced clean off the 100 EMA. Dynamic resistance held.
MACD: Histogram below zero. Lines crossing below the zero mark — bearish momentum confirmed.
🐻 COT Report — Bearish Signal:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows growing bearish sentiment on the euro:
Non-commercial longs cut by 9,410 contracts
Non-commercial shorts increased by 16,117 contracts
Net long position hit a 3-month low for large speculators
Hedgers' net position fell to a 16-month low
For two straight weeks, traders have reduced net EUR longs. The net position is attempting to break below a 2-month consolidation. If this trend continues, EURUSD could see further downside.
🗞️ Fundamental Note:
Trump ended the US-Iran MoU: "The memorandum of understanding with Iran is over." US airstrikes followed Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz. Flight-to-safety boosted the Dollar. ECB's Schnabel warned Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. Panetta flagged fragile outlook. Geopolitical chaos + hawkish ECB uncertainty = EUR under pressure.
❌ Invalidation:
A daily close above the 100 EMA voids the short setup.
🔻 Entry: 1.14050
🛑 Stop Loss: above 100 EMA / supply zone
🎯 Take Profit 1: 1.13630
🎯 Take Profit 2: 1.13220
📉 Technical Picture (H4 & Daily):
100 EMA: Price bounced clean off the 100 EMA. Dynamic resistance held.
MACD: Histogram below zero. Lines crossing below the zero mark — bearish momentum confirmed.
🐻 COT Report — Bearish Signal:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows growing bearish sentiment on the euro:
Non-commercial longs cut by 9,410 contracts
Non-commercial shorts increased by 16,117 contracts
Net long position hit a 3-month low for large speculators
Hedgers' net position fell to a 16-month low
For two straight weeks, traders have reduced net EUR longs. The net position is attempting to break below a 2-month consolidation. If this trend continues, EURUSD could see further downside.
🗞️ Fundamental Note:
Trump ended the US-Iran MoU: "The memorandum of understanding with Iran is over." US airstrikes followed Iranian attacks on vessels in Hormuz. Flight-to-safety boosted the Dollar. ECB's Schnabel warned Iran conflict keeps core inflation elevated. Panetta flagged fragile outlook. Geopolitical chaos + hawkish ECB uncertainty = EUR under pressure.
❌ Invalidation:
A daily close above the 100 EMA voids the short setup.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
📊 Follow for daily Market Summary, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
👉 t.me/elibrianalytics
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.