█ SETUP
Intuitive Surgical ·
ISRG · 1mo · long only.
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (ISRG 1mo):
Win rate 71% · profit factor 18.5 · max drawdown 73% (monthly equity curve — wide but high PF)
Typical hold ~12×1mo bars · surgical robotics mean-reversion sleeve
█ WHY NOW
Q3 US cash open — monthly ALMA long fired on 1 Jul 13:30 UTC
Fresh 1mo entry ~$397.68 — med-tech leader on a pullback into high-$390s, not a breakout chase. Mark since entry ~$407.05 (+2.4% open MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$357.90. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: ISRG = da Vinci ecosystem — procedure growth, capital equipment cycle, hospital budgets.
Tape (1 Jul): Healthcare can outperform pure Mag7 beta when investors rotate to quality cash flows after a choppy macro month.
Execution is 1mo ALMA mean-reversion, not a procedure-growth forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 71% WR · PF 18.5 on the 1mo tester — payoff skew favors winners despite wide historical DD
- ALMA — 3D (near execution): LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.7 — young above-session on the 3d chart (not time-overheated)
- ALMA — 4H: LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.4 — young 4h sleeve tags the refill bar
- EMA — discount map: 4H→1W all Below at entry · 1W Dev +17.8% with Cur S:23 vs Avg S:5.1 — stretched below-EMA on slow TFs = mean-reversion fuel for the monthly long
- VWAP: fill ~$402.21 under nearest Resistance ~$408.48 (09 Jun anchor) — room to the swing-VWAP ceiling if bid returns
Negative factors
- ALMA — 1W headwind: SHORT · S:10 vs SAvg:3.5 — weekly ALMA time-overheated above-session on a SHORT signal · monthly long fights slow-TF band from above
- ALMA — 1D: SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:4.0 — daily band still SHORT at entry
- SMC — 1D at fill (~$397.68): Not in FVG/OB zone — no fresh demand tag on the entry print · recent ladder = FVG Raid Bear steps from ~$402–406 (Jun)
- SMC — 1W: Not in FVG/OB on the 22 Jun weekly bar — no slow-TF demand pocket on the latest weekly structure
- VWAP overhead: active Resistance ~$429.72 / ~$464.81 above spot — ceiling ladder above $408
- Monthly DD in tester is wide (73%) — slow grid can draw down before mean-reversion
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: below-EMA stretch on 4H–1W and young 3D/4H ALMA support the monthly refill, but weekly ALMA SHORT overheating and absent SMC demand at the fill argue for a grind, not a V-recovery — respect the −10% hard stop.
Base case: follow the 1mo ALMA strategy · 3D/4H young LONG holds · slow reclaim toward $408–430 VWAP/ALMA zone.
Bear case: 1W SHORT ALMA extends · lose 3D band · −10% toward ~$358 hard stop.
Intuitive Surgical ·
ISRG · 1mo · long only.ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (ISRG 1mo):
Win rate 71% · profit factor 18.5 · max drawdown 73% (monthly equity curve — wide but high PF)
Typical hold ~12×1mo bars · surgical robotics mean-reversion sleeve
█ WHY NOW
Q3 US cash open — monthly ALMA long fired on 1 Jul 13:30 UTC
Fresh 1mo entry ~$397.68 — med-tech leader on a pullback into high-$390s, not a breakout chase. Mark since entry ~$407.05 (+2.4% open MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$357.90. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: ISRG = da Vinci ecosystem — procedure growth, capital equipment cycle, hospital budgets.
Tape (1 Jul): Healthcare can outperform pure Mag7 beta when investors rotate to quality cash flows after a choppy macro month.
Execution is 1mo ALMA mean-reversion, not a procedure-growth forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 71% WR · PF 18.5 on the 1mo tester — payoff skew favors winners despite wide historical DD
- ALMA — 3D (near execution): LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.7 — young above-session on the 3d chart (not time-overheated)
- ALMA — 4H: LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.4 — young 4h sleeve tags the refill bar
- EMA — discount map: 4H→1W all Below at entry · 1W Dev +17.8% with Cur S:23 vs Avg S:5.1 — stretched below-EMA on slow TFs = mean-reversion fuel for the monthly long
- VWAP: fill ~$402.21 under nearest Resistance ~$408.48 (09 Jun anchor) — room to the swing-VWAP ceiling if bid returns
Negative factors
- ALMA — 1W headwind: SHORT · S:10 vs SAvg:3.5 — weekly ALMA time-overheated above-session on a SHORT signal · monthly long fights slow-TF band from above
- ALMA — 1D: SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:4.0 — daily band still SHORT at entry
- SMC — 1D at fill (~$397.68): Not in FVG/OB zone — no fresh demand tag on the entry print · recent ladder = FVG Raid Bear steps from ~$402–406 (Jun)
- SMC — 1W: Not in FVG/OB on the 22 Jun weekly bar — no slow-TF demand pocket on the latest weekly structure
- VWAP overhead: active Resistance ~$429.72 / ~$464.81 above spot — ceiling ladder above $408
- Monthly DD in tester is wide (73%) — slow grid can draw down before mean-reversion
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: below-EMA stretch on 4H–1W and young 3D/4H ALMA support the monthly refill, but weekly ALMA SHORT overheating and absent SMC demand at the fill argue for a grind, not a V-recovery — respect the −10% hard stop.
Base case: follow the 1mo ALMA strategy · 3D/4H young LONG holds · slow reclaim toward $408–430 VWAP/ALMA zone.
Bear case: 1W SHORT ALMA extends · lose 3D band · −10% toward ~$358 hard stop.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.