MCD – Fundamental snapshot (Sep 2026)
VALUATION: $171B mkt cap. P/E 19.6x TTM, 18.7x fwd, EV/EBITDA 15x, FCF yield ~4.5%, dividend yield 3.1% (payout ~60%). Well below the mid-20s multiples of recent years – a big de-rating is already priced.
QUALITY INTACT: operating margin ~46%, net margin ~32%, FCF $7.8B (28% margin), ROIC ~17%. ~95% franchised = asset-light, royalty-like cash flows. Beta 0.3.
GROWTH IS THE ISSUE: Q2 global comps only +1.3% (US +0.8%), revenue +4%, EPS +6% (TTM EPS $12.31).
INVESTOR DAY (Sep 23): $8.5B franchisee support through 2036 (~$5B by 2030) via rent relief + capital. Targets for 2030: op. margin low-to-mid 50%, FCF conversion mid-to-high 80%; ~$3B/yr baseline capex 2027-30. No EPS target → market prices the near-term margin/FCF drag while the payoff is years away.
BALANCE SHEET: net debt ~$54B (~3.6x EBITDA), negative equity from buybacks. Normal for a stable franchisor, but rent relief could slow buybacks.
CATALYST: Q3 results Oct 22 (consensus EPS ~$3.39). Watch US comps, first sizing of NEXT costs in 2027 guidance, buyback pace.
BOTTOM LINE: a quality compounder at a sub-20 P/E, but the discount reflects real uncertainty – weak comps plus a decade-long reinvestment cycle. The value case needs comps to re-accelerate.
Not investment advice.
VALUATION: $171B mkt cap. P/E 19.6x TTM, 18.7x fwd, EV/EBITDA 15x, FCF yield ~4.5%, dividend yield 3.1% (payout ~60%). Well below the mid-20s multiples of recent years – a big de-rating is already priced.
QUALITY INTACT: operating margin ~46%, net margin ~32%, FCF $7.8B (28% margin), ROIC ~17%. ~95% franchised = asset-light, royalty-like cash flows. Beta 0.3.
GROWTH IS THE ISSUE: Q2 global comps only +1.3% (US +0.8%), revenue +4%, EPS +6% (TTM EPS $12.31).
INVESTOR DAY (Sep 23): $8.5B franchisee support through 2036 (~$5B by 2030) via rent relief + capital. Targets for 2030: op. margin low-to-mid 50%, FCF conversion mid-to-high 80%; ~$3B/yr baseline capex 2027-30. No EPS target → market prices the near-term margin/FCF drag while the payoff is years away.
BALANCE SHEET: net debt ~$54B (~3.6x EBITDA), negative equity from buybacks. Normal for a stable franchisor, but rent relief could slow buybacks.
CATALYST: Q3 results Oct 22 (consensus EPS ~$3.39). Watch US comps, first sizing of NEXT costs in 2027 guidance, buyback pace.
BOTTOM LINE: a quality compounder at a sub-20 P/E, but the discount reflects real uncertainty – weak comps plus a decade-long reinvestment cycle. The value case needs comps to re-accelerate.
Not investment advice.
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.