Technical Analysis & Order Flow
1. Natural Gas (NATGAS) - The Primary
Weekly/Daily: Price has broken out of a multi-year base. The strong impulse candles suggest institutional buying. We are likely in Level 3 of a standard Market Maker cycle (the trending phase).
4H Structure: Price is making clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The recent pause at 4.437 is a Bullish Consolidation (Time Correction).
Liquidity: There is "clean" buy-side liquidity above 4.500. A break of this level will likely trigger a gamma squeeze to 4.800.
Order Block: The 4.350 level represents a key Bullish Order Block (previous resistance turned support) on the 1H chart. We want to see price wick into this zone and reject lower prices.
2. DXY (US Dollar) - The Inverse Indicator
Analysis: DXY is currently testing a major resistance zone at 100.20 – 100.50 (Blue Box on your chart).
Trigger: If DXY rejects this level and drops toward 99.00, it provides a massive tailwind for Commodities (incl. NatGas of course).
Caution: A DXY 4H candle close above 100.50 would invalidate the immediate bullish momentum for Gas.
3. Peabody Energy (BTU) - The Correlation (Coal/Energy Sector)
Analysis: BTU is lagging behind the Gas rally but is finding support at the 26.00 level.
Signal: We watch for BTU to break above 26.50. If Coal starts rallying, it confirms the broader "Energy Sector" bid, adding confidence to the Nat.Gas long.
Execution Strategy
Monday Open: Gap open likely! We don't chase the gap up if it opens above 4.500.
The "Trap": We watch for a False Move (Stop Hunt) lower during the London session (approx. 3:00 AM - 5:00 AM ET) down into the 4.380 area.
Entry Trigger: We enter long when we see a 15m bullish engulfing candle or a W-Pattern forming inside the 4.350-4.380 zone.
Trade Management:
We move Stop Loss to BE once price clears 4.500;
Verdicts:
Technical Trend: ✅ Strong Bullish
Seasonality: ✅ Bullish (Winter Heating Demand)
Volume Profile: ✅ Expanding on Up-moves
Trade Probability: High (80%+)
1. Natural Gas (NATGAS) - The Primary
Weekly/Daily: Price has broken out of a multi-year base. The strong impulse candles suggest institutional buying. We are likely in Level 3 of a standard Market Maker cycle (the trending phase).
4H Structure: Price is making clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The recent pause at 4.437 is a Bullish Consolidation (Time Correction).
Liquidity: There is "clean" buy-side liquidity above 4.500. A break of this level will likely trigger a gamma squeeze to 4.800.
Order Block: The 4.350 level represents a key Bullish Order Block (previous resistance turned support) on the 1H chart. We want to see price wick into this zone and reject lower prices.
2. DXY (US Dollar) - The Inverse Indicator
Analysis: DXY is currently testing a major resistance zone at 100.20 – 100.50 (Blue Box on your chart).
Trigger: If DXY rejects this level and drops toward 99.00, it provides a massive tailwind for Commodities (incl. NatGas of course).
Caution: A DXY 4H candle close above 100.50 would invalidate the immediate bullish momentum for Gas.
3. Peabody Energy (BTU) - The Correlation (Coal/Energy Sector)
Analysis: BTU is lagging behind the Gas rally but is finding support at the 26.00 level.
Signal: We watch for BTU to break above 26.50. If Coal starts rallying, it confirms the broader "Energy Sector" bid, adding confidence to the Nat.Gas long.
Execution Strategy
Monday Open: Gap open likely! We don't chase the gap up if it opens above 4.500.
The "Trap": We watch for a False Move (Stop Hunt) lower during the London session (approx. 3:00 AM - 5:00 AM ET) down into the 4.380 area.
Entry Trigger: We enter long when we see a 15m bullish engulfing candle or a W-Pattern forming inside the 4.350-4.380 zone.
Trade Management:
We move Stop Loss to BE once price clears 4.500;
Verdicts:
Technical Trend: ✅ Strong Bullish
Seasonality: ✅ Bullish (Winter Heating Demand)
Volume Profile: ✅ Expanding on Up-moves
Trade Probability: High (80%+)
עסקה פעילה
50% of the long position opened at market price50% of the long position pending market order @4.355
הערה
Pending market order will be canceled. Original long position running. No changes to SL or TP.עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ
Got stopped out on this one. Obviously a classic stop hunt with bounce back - well done market makers... 
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.