Going long on March Natural Gas futures at 2.95.
1) Weather Current models (ECMWF and GFS) show the formation of a blocking anticyclone. This is not just a short-term frost, but a prolonged cold that will linger in key consumption regions (Midwest, Northeast) at least until February 5–8.
2) Production Current models show the formation of a blocking anticyclone. This is not just a short-term frost, but a prolonged cold that will linger in key consumption regions at least until February 5–8. If the frost lasts for another 48–72 hours (as confirmed by the AO index), production could fall to 105 Bcf/d. Every lost unit (Bcf) under conditions of record demand is a direct driver of growth.
3) Export Corpus Christi (Train 5): Commissioning work began on the 5th line on January 14. This adds a constant demand of ~0.7 Bcf/d to the system (with potential up to 1.5 Bcf/d at full load). Exports will reach record levels in March.
4) Current Status of European UGS (Underground Gas Storage) Fill level: EU average is ~50.4% – 52% (according to GIE AGSI data). For comparison: at the same time in 2025, the level was above 65%. Due to prolonged cold weather and periods of low wind (Dunkelflaute), storage withdrawals in January are proceeding at rates 1.5–2 times higher than the norm. If Europe ends the winter with 20-25% in UGS, it will have to inject 35–40 billion m³ more gas in the summer than last year. This will create massive demand as early as March-April.
Blocking anticyclones (High-pressure blocking) over Greenland and Scandinavia look stable. This means that the cold pattern in Europe will last at least until February 5–10.
A negative AO "locks" heat over the Atlantic and "pushes" Arctic air masses onto the European continent. This leads to temperature anomalies 5–8°C below normal in Germany, France, and the Benelux countries.
The second cold wave (February) may turn out to be drier and frostier, which is critical for wind generation (Dunkelflaute), forcing power engineers to burn more gas.
We are moving along the lower bound of the historical range. At the current withdrawal rate (~607 million cubic meters per day), Europe risks reaching the 30% level as early as mid-February, which is a month earlier than usual. If current withdrawal rates persist, Europe will reach the 22-24% level by March 31 with a probability of 51%.
SUMMARY European UGS (Germany, France) have dropped to ~42%, the lowest figure in 5 years, and withdrawals are occurring at double speed. Total US demand (January 20–21) hit a historical high of 184 Bcf/d. With current production at 107 Bcf/d, the gap is being covered by massive withdrawals from UGS. The surplus of +106 Bcf (relative to the 5-year norm) that existed on Friday will be completely liquidated by the end of this week. The market is shifting from a state of "surplus" to a state of "massive deficit."
March is currently pricing in the risks that gas might not be sufficient for normal UGS filling in the summer of 2026.
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