Stages
the zoomed-out view
Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA:
Stage 1 — Bottoming
Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in.
Stage 2 — Rising
Price is in an uptrend.
Stage 3 —Topping:
Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming.
Stage 4 — Declining:
Price breaks down. Capitulation.
Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2.
Price Cycle
the details within the stages
Phase 1 — Decline & Retest
Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower.
Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition
Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down?
Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest
Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins.
Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback
Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions.
Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition
Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up.
The Multi-Timeframe Layer
the zoomed-out view
Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA:
Stage 1 — Bottoming
Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in.
Stage 2 — Rising
Price is in an uptrend.
Stage 3 —Topping:
Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming.
Stage 4 — Declining:
Price breaks down. Capitulation.
Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2.
Price Cycle
the details within the stages
Phase 1 — Decline & Retest
Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower.
Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition
Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down?
Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest
Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins.
Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback
Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions.
Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition
Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up.
The Multi-Timeframe Layer
- Every timeframe has its own stage and price cycle running simultaneously
- When the daily is range-bound or topping, you can drop to the hourly and trade shorter moves through the same 5 phases
- When the daily is in a clean Stage 2 uptrend, the hourly will be cycling through all 5 phases within that move — use it to time entries and exits
Emanuela | thetraderreset.com
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
Emanuela | thetraderreset.com
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.