From a monthly perspective, Dow Jones price action is attempting to break beyond the bounds of a diagonal consolidation originating from the 2020 lows. Markets are repricing long-term risk exposure across AI-focused sectors amid capex and revenue concerns; however, the steep nature of recent price action warrants caution, in line with the declining market greed index highlighted by the CNN Fear and Greed indicator.
This divergence is creating an imbalanced environment, keeping key levels in focus to confirm potential shifts within these primary uptrends.
This extended consolidation structure raises the risk of a sharp drawdown before a bullish continuation. A move back below the 50,000 mark would extend retracement risks toward 49,600, a level that could realign price action back into the 50,000 zone.
Failing that, a deeper drawdown may unfold toward 48,800 and 48,500, followed by a further 1,000-point extension to 47,500 and 47,000, before exposing the 45,000 threshold. This level aligns with the lower bound of the consolidation range and a key resistance zone from 2024 and February 2025.
On the upside, holding above the 50,200 mark is expected to extend gains further toward levels 51,200 and 53,000 respectively.
The distribution observed between December 2024 and February 2025 risks repeating into the end of Q1 2025, potentially serving as a reset phase to recharge momentum and realign with the broader uptrend.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
This divergence is creating an imbalanced environment, keeping key levels in focus to confirm potential shifts within these primary uptrends.
This extended consolidation structure raises the risk of a sharp drawdown before a bullish continuation. A move back below the 50,000 mark would extend retracement risks toward 49,600, a level that could realign price action back into the 50,000 zone.
Failing that, a deeper drawdown may unfold toward 48,800 and 48,500, followed by a further 1,000-point extension to 47,500 and 47,000, before exposing the 45,000 threshold. This level aligns with the lower bound of the consolidation range and a key resistance zone from 2024 and February 2025.
On the upside, holding above the 50,200 mark is expected to extend gains further toward levels 51,200 and 53,000 respectively.
The distribution observed between December 2024 and February 2025 risks repeating into the end of Q1 2025, potentially serving as a reset phase to recharge momentum and realign with the broader uptrend.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.