USD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness.
1️⃣ Seasonal Bias
Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs.
2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side.
JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative.
The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term.
3️⃣ Sentiment Data
Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension.
4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation.
Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50
Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support)
Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection)
RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions.
The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November.
5️⃣ Confluence Summary
✅ Seasonality: Bullish
✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY
✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish
✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel
⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
1️⃣ Seasonal Bias
Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs.
2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side.
JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative.
The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term.
3️⃣ Sentiment Data
Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension.
4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart)
Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation.
Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50
Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support)
Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection)
RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions.
The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November.
5️⃣ Confluence Summary
✅ Seasonality: Bullish
✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY
✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish
✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel
⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.