מעודכן

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

הערה

But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

הערה

possible Long-term wave count

הערה

Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

הערה

short-term count

הערה

any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

הערה

break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

הערה

there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

הערה

The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

הערה

break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

הערה

The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

הערה

also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

הערה

Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

הערה

is wave 3 ready to explode?

הערה

Short-term count

הערה

daily chart

הערה

we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

הערה

possible short-term counts:
either

הערה

alternative count

הערה

wave {iv} under way?

הערה

wave (iv) could be a triangle

הערה

possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

הערה

or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

הערה

immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

הערה

wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

הערה

triangle

or flat?

הערה

triangle

or flat

הערה

{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

הערה

or an impulse wave {c}

הערה

possible short-term count

הערה

possible short-term count

הערה

either way

הערה

let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

הערה

a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

הערה

break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

הערה

possible short-term count

הערה

key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

הערה

possible short-term counts

הערה

note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

הערה

triple zigzag?

הערה

Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

הערה

alternative count

הערה

possible short-term count

הערה

possible short-term count

הערה

either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

הערה

Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

הערה

the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

הערה

possible short term counts

הערה

bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

הערה

no change

הערה

Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

הערה

OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

הערה

Flat

or Combination

הערה

there are some bullish possibilities

הערה

medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

גם ב:

פרסומים קשורים

The start of a long-term bear?

מאת ‎wsbza‎

כתב ויתור

המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space