My short from last week survived exactly two sessions.
On Monday, price tagged the 4,070-4,083 zone I had marked in the week 32 article. The order filled, price slipped toward 4,042, and I closed part of it, pocketing exactly $23.
On Tuesday, gold turned around and ripped straight up to 4,267. The rest of the position was stopped out. Netting it out, I was down $40.
Losing $40 doesn't bother me. What matters more is what I did afterwards: nothing at all.
✅ THE MINDLESS RULE SAVES ME AGAIN
The week 32 article had one line I wrote for myself: a daily close above 4,120 meant the triangle had broken upward and the Short scenario was invalidated.
On Tuesday, 4 August, the daily candle closed at 4,247. The invalidation triggered, and I stood aside watching gold run on to Friday's high of 4,372.
From Monday's low of 4,042 to that high, gold traveled nearly $330 in one week. For the second straight week, the invalidation rule kept my money safe.
Getting a forecast wrong is a normal part of this job. Staying out after being wrong is the part that takes practice.
🔍 WHO'S BUYING, AND WHY I DON'T TRUST IT YET
This rally has reasons behind it, and they aren't weak.
A soft NFP jobs report dragged down expectations for a Fed rate hike. Pressure on the BOJ to raise rates in September adds weight on the dollar. In the Middle East, the bombs have stopped, but nobody has seen any deal signed.
A weak dollar and quiet guns give gold a reason to run. But another stream of money is telling the opposite story.
In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $4.5 billion on buybacks and nearly $20 billion buying stocks. Greg Abel is putting the company's mountain of cash to work far more aggressively.
People only do that when they believe no recession is coming and inflation is no longer a problem. And those happen to be the two most classic reasons to hold gold.
If Berkshire is right, this $330 surge looks more like FOMO than a new trend. And FOMO near the highs tends to leave traps behind.
The daily RSI sits at 68.3, touching overbought territory for the second time since the all-time high of 5,598 in February. The first time was at that very peak.
🥇 GOLD ETFS ARE SAYING THE OPPOSITE
Let me be blunt: last week's Gold ETF flows were not on my side.
The SPDR fund was a net buyer for four straight sessions. On 4 August it added $449 million, on the 5th another $656 million, on the 6th it slowed to $78 million, then on the 7th another $393 million.
The whole run adds up to nearly $1.58 billion, equivalent to 11.67 tonnes of gold. Holdings jumped from 1,005.9 tonnes to 1,017.5 tonnes. Just one week earlier, the same fund had recorded net outflows of nearly $300 million.
I won't spin this number to flatter my view. Money arriving after the price has already run can be FOMO chasing the move, or institutions genuinely changing their appetite.
The only conclusion I draw: my confidence in this week's Short is lower than usual. So I absolutely will not chase the Sell. If a signal appears at my pre-set zone, I'm in; if not, I pass.
📊 EVERY EMA RECLAIMED, BUT A SUPPLY ZONE SITS ABOVE
On the technical side, credit where it's due: the bulls just did something big.
Last week price was still below all five daily EMAs. Now price at 4,357 stands above every one of them: EMA10 4,249, EMA20 4,187, EMA50 4,190, EMA100 4,287, EMA200 4,266.
But overhead, the obstacles are lining up too.
Plotting a Fibonacci retracement over the 4,891-to-3,942 decline, price has just cleared the 0.382 level at 4,305. The 0.5 sits at 4,417, the 0.618 at 4,529. The 4,417-4,529 area is exactly where price reacted over and over from February through June.
The upper daily Bollinger Band sits at 4,374, right against price. Stochastic has reached 93, and daily ATR is around $98.
No indicator forces this market to reverse. But if the sellers are still there, 4,417 to 4,529 is the most logical place for them to act.
⚠️ HORMUZ, THE VARIABLE THAT DECIDES THE WHOLE BOARD
One more variable lives outside every chart: the negotiating table around the Strait of Hormuz.
There's no clear Oman-Iran agreement yet, and no sign of the US and Iran sitting down. The only fact on the table is that the bombing has stopped.
If a deal takes shape, the likely script is stocks and Bitcoin keep booming while gold and the US dollar get sold at the same time. That scenario works in favor of my Short.
If the talks collapse instead, the way they did in June, the war premium returns instantly and the Short dies on the spot.
🎯 MY PLAN FOR THIS WEEK
I'm waiting for gold to finish its climb into the 4,416 area, the lower edge of the supply zone, right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
The script I've drawn: price tags that zone, leaves a Sell signal, then turns down to 4,300, on to 4,200, and at the far end the old bottom at 3,996.
Stop loss is 200 pips, risking $240. Volume is 0.12 lot split into 0.02, 0.04 and 0.06, taking profit in stages at each target.
This week's invalidation lives in the candles, not in a price level. If price touches 4,416 without leaving any Sell signal candle, I don't enter. A trade cancelled before it opens is still better than a trade opened in the wrong place.
Last week the market collected $40 in tuition from me. This week I'm putting that exact lesson to work: no chasing, no guessing, just waiting at the agreed spot.
And you, do you think this $330 surge is the real trend, or the bulls' final sprint before the trap?
---
P/S: Don't forget to leave a Like and ask anything you'd like to discuss to trade better every day!
Follow Tô Triều on TradingView to stay connected for the long haul, and talk through each trade together. I believe sharing and discussion help us learn more, and make every analysis and every comment on TradingView more useful for everyone ⚡️
On Monday, price tagged the 4,070-4,083 zone I had marked in the week 32 article. The order filled, price slipped toward 4,042, and I closed part of it, pocketing exactly $23.
On Tuesday, gold turned around and ripped straight up to 4,267. The rest of the position was stopped out. Netting it out, I was down $40.
Losing $40 doesn't bother me. What matters more is what I did afterwards: nothing at all.
✅ THE MINDLESS RULE SAVES ME AGAIN
The week 32 article had one line I wrote for myself: a daily close above 4,120 meant the triangle had broken upward and the Short scenario was invalidated.
On Tuesday, 4 August, the daily candle closed at 4,247. The invalidation triggered, and I stood aside watching gold run on to Friday's high of 4,372.
From Monday's low of 4,042 to that high, gold traveled nearly $330 in one week. For the second straight week, the invalidation rule kept my money safe.
Getting a forecast wrong is a normal part of this job. Staying out after being wrong is the part that takes practice.
🔍 WHO'S BUYING, AND WHY I DON'T TRUST IT YET
This rally has reasons behind it, and they aren't weak.
A soft NFP jobs report dragged down expectations for a Fed rate hike. Pressure on the BOJ to raise rates in September adds weight on the dollar. In the Middle East, the bombs have stopped, but nobody has seen any deal signed.
A weak dollar and quiet guns give gold a reason to run. But another stream of money is telling the opposite story.
In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $4.5 billion on buybacks and nearly $20 billion buying stocks. Greg Abel is putting the company's mountain of cash to work far more aggressively.
People only do that when they believe no recession is coming and inflation is no longer a problem. And those happen to be the two most classic reasons to hold gold.
If Berkshire is right, this $330 surge looks more like FOMO than a new trend. And FOMO near the highs tends to leave traps behind.
The daily RSI sits at 68.3, touching overbought territory for the second time since the all-time high of 5,598 in February. The first time was at that very peak.
🥇 GOLD ETFS ARE SAYING THE OPPOSITE
Let me be blunt: last week's Gold ETF flows were not on my side.
The SPDR fund was a net buyer for four straight sessions. On 4 August it added $449 million, on the 5th another $656 million, on the 6th it slowed to $78 million, then on the 7th another $393 million.
The whole run adds up to nearly $1.58 billion, equivalent to 11.67 tonnes of gold. Holdings jumped from 1,005.9 tonnes to 1,017.5 tonnes. Just one week earlier, the same fund had recorded net outflows of nearly $300 million.
I won't spin this number to flatter my view. Money arriving after the price has already run can be FOMO chasing the move, or institutions genuinely changing their appetite.
The only conclusion I draw: my confidence in this week's Short is lower than usual. So I absolutely will not chase the Sell. If a signal appears at my pre-set zone, I'm in; if not, I pass.
📊 EVERY EMA RECLAIMED, BUT A SUPPLY ZONE SITS ABOVE
On the technical side, credit where it's due: the bulls just did something big.
Last week price was still below all five daily EMAs. Now price at 4,357 stands above every one of them: EMA10 4,249, EMA20 4,187, EMA50 4,190, EMA100 4,287, EMA200 4,266.
But overhead, the obstacles are lining up too.
Plotting a Fibonacci retracement over the 4,891-to-3,942 decline, price has just cleared the 0.382 level at 4,305. The 0.5 sits at 4,417, the 0.618 at 4,529. The 4,417-4,529 area is exactly where price reacted over and over from February through June.
The upper daily Bollinger Band sits at 4,374, right against price. Stochastic has reached 93, and daily ATR is around $98.
No indicator forces this market to reverse. But if the sellers are still there, 4,417 to 4,529 is the most logical place for them to act.
⚠️ HORMUZ, THE VARIABLE THAT DECIDES THE WHOLE BOARD
One more variable lives outside every chart: the negotiating table around the Strait of Hormuz.
There's no clear Oman-Iran agreement yet, and no sign of the US and Iran sitting down. The only fact on the table is that the bombing has stopped.
If a deal takes shape, the likely script is stocks and Bitcoin keep booming while gold and the US dollar get sold at the same time. That scenario works in favor of my Short.
If the talks collapse instead, the way they did in June, the war premium returns instantly and the Short dies on the spot.
🎯 MY PLAN FOR THIS WEEK
I'm waiting for gold to finish its climb into the 4,416 area, the lower edge of the supply zone, right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
The script I've drawn: price tags that zone, leaves a Sell signal, then turns down to 4,300, on to 4,200, and at the far end the old bottom at 3,996.
- Entry zone (Sell) — Price: 4,416
- TP1 — Price: 4,300
- TP2 — Price: 4,200
- TP3 — Price: 3,996
- Invalidation — Price: No Sell signal at 4,416
Stop loss is 200 pips, risking $240. Volume is 0.12 lot split into 0.02, 0.04 and 0.06, taking profit in stages at each target.
This week's invalidation lives in the candles, not in a price level. If price touches 4,416 without leaving any Sell signal candle, I don't enter. A trade cancelled before it opens is still better than a trade opened in the wrong place.
Last week the market collected $40 in tuition from me. This week I'm putting that exact lesson to work: no chasing, no guessing, just waiting at the agreed spot.
And you, do you think this $330 surge is the real trend, or the bulls' final sprint before the trap?
---
P/S: Don't forget to leave a Like and ask anything you'd like to discuss to trade better every day!
Follow Tô Triều on TradingView to stay connected for the long haul, and talk through each trade together. I believe sharing and discussion help us learn more, and make every analysis and every comment on TradingView more useful for everyone ⚡️
הפקודה בוטלה
I observe that the 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) has returned to its previous peak without weighing on gold prices. This suggests that a subsequent drop in yield could trigger another rally.Gold ETFs have also continued to buy in large volumes, indicating a market consensus to accumulate the asset.
A final factor rendering the selling plan unviable is that President Trump has issued demands that Iran is unlikely to accept, dampening expectations for a US-Iran agreement in the near term.
While these three signals do not appear directly on the chart, when combined with the lack of a bearish reaction at $4,416/oz and its breakout above this zone, I believe gold may continue to ignore the 50% Fibonacci resistance and advance toward the 61.8% level at $4,528/oz.
I have decided to abandon the selling plan and adopt a "wait-and-buy" stance.
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
Live Trading Journal App Tracking:
🤝 FB Group: facebook.com/groups/meinvest
🚀 Android: play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=net.tohaitrieu.forex
🚀 iOS: apps.apple.com/vn/app/tô-triều/id1446917895?l=vi
🤝 FB Group: facebook.com/groups/meinvest
🚀 Android: play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=net.tohaitrieu.forex
🚀 iOS: apps.apple.com/vn/app/tô-triều/id1446917895?l=vi
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.