On the 4H timeframe, XRPUSDT is clearly transitioning into a bearish market structure, with price printing lower highs and lower lows after a strong initial expansion. The shift in momentum confirms that sellers are gaining control, and the market is now in a corrective/distribution phase.
Price is currently trading below the equilibrium (0.5) level, placing it in discount territory. This aligns with the idea that the market is seeking sell-side liquidity and rebalancing prior inefficiencies.
A key feature in the current structure is the presence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) above price, which was created during the bearish move down. This imbalance acts as a retracement target, meaning price may temporarily move upward to rebalance before continuing lower.
At the same time, there is sell-side liquidity resting below recent lows, which becomes the main downside objective.
Expected ICT narrative:
Retracement into FVG → rejection → continuation lower
The most probable scenario:
Price delivers a short-term pullback upward into the FVG (around 1.34–1.36 zone)
Shows rejection and bearish confirmation
Continues downward to sweep sell-side liquidity below (around 1.30 and lower)
Key confluences:
Clear bearish structure (lower highs)
Price in discount = continuation context
FVG above = retracement zone
Sell-side liquidity below = main target
Execution idea:
Wait for price to retrace into the FVG and show bearish confirmation (e.g., lower timeframe rejection, CHoCH/BOS). This provides a high-probability short setup, targeting the lows.
Invalidation occurs if price reclaims the FVG and breaks above structure, indicating a shift back to bullish conditions.
This is not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
Price is currently trading below the equilibrium (0.5) level, placing it in discount territory. This aligns with the idea that the market is seeking sell-side liquidity and rebalancing prior inefficiencies.
A key feature in the current structure is the presence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) above price, which was created during the bearish move down. This imbalance acts as a retracement target, meaning price may temporarily move upward to rebalance before continuing lower.
At the same time, there is sell-side liquidity resting below recent lows, which becomes the main downside objective.
Expected ICT narrative:
Retracement into FVG → rejection → continuation lower
The most probable scenario:
Price delivers a short-term pullback upward into the FVG (around 1.34–1.36 zone)
Shows rejection and bearish confirmation
Continues downward to sweep sell-side liquidity below (around 1.30 and lower)
Key confluences:
Clear bearish structure (lower highs)
Price in discount = continuation context
FVG above = retracement zone
Sell-side liquidity below = main target
Execution idea:
Wait for price to retrace into the FVG and show bearish confirmation (e.g., lower timeframe rejection, CHoCH/BOS). This provides a high-probability short setup, targeting the lows.
Invalidation occurs if price reclaims the FVG and breaks above structure, indicating a shift back to bullish conditions.
This is not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.