Is Wave C Complete, or Is the Correction Still Unfolding?Ethereum
Following the broader structural outlook presented in the weekly analysis and the primary scenarios discussed in the daily chart, this 4-hour update focuses on the internal development of Wave C—the portion of the structure that may ultimately determine whether the higher-degree Wave (IV) correction is nearing completion.
Conservative Scenario
According to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave W appears to have completed as a Simple Zigzag, followed by Wave X as a Classic Zigzag. The market is currently developing Wave Y as a Flat Correction, with the structure so far remaining consistent with a Regular Flat.
However, until Wave C is fully completed, the possibility of the pattern extending into an Expanded Flat remains valid. For that reason, the primary focus is on the internal development of Wave C, where the completion of a five-wave impulsive sequence will help determine whether the correction ends as a Regular Flat or evolves into an Expanded Flat through an extended Wave C.
If Wave Y completes as expected, the higher-degree Wave (IV) would likely come to an end, allowing the market to transition into Wave (V). Under this scenario, the next objective will be to identify the beginning of a new motive sequence and evaluate the potential strength and extension of the fifth wave.
Nevertheless, if the correction remains incomplete after Wave Y has finished, the structure may continue evolving into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z). In that case, Wave Z is not limited to a specific corrective pattern. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, it may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other valid corrective combination, provided that the structural, time, and price relationships between W, Y, and Z remain consistent with the characteristics of the completed pattern.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive interpretation presents a different structural perspective.
In this view, Wave W is considered a completed Simple Zigzag, while the rally into the previous high is labeled as Wave X. Based on this count, the market is now developing Wave Y.
Rather than forming a simple corrective pattern, Wave Y may evolve into a larger Double Three combination. As long as the internal structure of this wave remains incomplete, the end of the higher-degree Wave (IV) cannot yet be confirmed. Consequently, every bullish movement should be evaluated in terms of its internal structure, wave personality, and structural relationships before concluding that a new impulsive trend has begun.
At this stage, the most important factor is not simply where price moves next, but how it moves. The emergence of a clear five-wave impulsive advance, accompanied by a decisive breakout from the corrective channel, would significantly increase the probability that Wave (IV) has been completed. Until then, any upward movement may still prove to be corrective in nature, leaving the broader correction structurally valid.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future. It represents my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle.
What you see here is the result of years of study, research, and practical experience dedicated to understanding wave structures and the language of the market. As new waves emerge, the market continuously provides fresh information that may refine—or even reshape—the preferred wave count.
For that reason, Elliott Wave analysis is less about predicting the future and more about objectively interpreting what the market is revealing at every stage of its development.
📌 Note:
If any part of these scenarios is unclear, I encourage you to review the previous analyses attached to this publication. This study is part of an ongoing structural research project, where each analysis builds upon the foundation established by the previous ones.
🌐 Intermarket Perspective:
When appropriate, I also compare correlated and inversely correlated markets, as structural confirmation—or divergence—across related assets can provide valuable evidence in support of the preferred wave count.
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle 
Long
Ethereum | Is the Major Correction Ending, or?Ethereum | Is the Major Correction Ending, or Is a More Complex Structure Still Unfolding?
Ethereum's long-term structure suggests that the market remains at one of the most critical stages of its higher-degree Wave (IV) correction. The primary question is not whether price will move higher or lower next, but whether this corrective phase is approaching completion or if the market still has another portion of its correction left to reveal.
Conservative Scenario
According to the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, Wave W appears to have completed as a simple Zigzag, followed by Wave X as a classic Zigzag. The market is currently developing Wave Y as a Flat Correction, with its structure presently aligning with a Regular Flat. However, until Wave C is fully completed, the possibility of the pattern evolving into an Expanded Flat remains valid.
For this reason, the primary focus is on the development of a complete five-wave impulsive structure for Wave C. The behavior of this final leg will determine whether the correction concludes as a Regular Flat or extends into an Expanded Flat through a larger Wave C.
Should Wave Y complete as expected, the higher-degree Wave (IV) would likely come to an end, opening the door for the beginning of Wave (V)—a motive wave that could develop into the next major impulsive advance if the broader structural relationships remain intact.
However, if the correction is still incomplete after Wave Y finishes, the structure may continue evolving into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z). In that case, Wave Z is not restricted to a single corrective pattern. Under the Elliott Wave Principle, it may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other valid corrective combination, provided the structural, time, and price relationships between W, Y, and Z remain consistent with the characteristics of the completed pattern.
Aggressive Scenario
The aggressive interpretation offers a different structural perspective.
In this scenario, Wave W is considered a completed simple Zigzag, while the rally into the previous high is labeled as Wave X. From this viewpoint, the market is now developing Wave Y.
Rather than forming a simple corrective pattern, Wave Y may evolve into a larger Double Three combination. If this scenario proves correct, the correction remains incomplete, and confirmation of the end of Wave (IV) must wait until the entire internal structure of Wave Y has fully developed.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future. It represents my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle.
What you see here is the result of seven years of study, research, and practical experience dedicated to understanding wave structures and the language of the market. As new waves emerge, the market continuously provides fresh information that may refine or even reshape the structural interpretation.
For that reason, Elliott Wave analysis is less about predicting the future and more about objectively interpreting what the market is revealing at each stage of its development.
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle Short 
Short
Ethereum | Is the Largest Corrective Cycle Nearing Completion?
Our structural analysis suggests that Ethereum may be approaching the final stages of Wave IV within its largest bullish market cycle. Based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle, this correction is currently being interpreted as a complex sideways corrective pattern.
In the preferred scenario, Wave Y is unfolding as a Flat correction that still has the potential to evolve from a Regular Flat into an Expanded Flat. If this structure is completed as expected, it could mark the end of the larger-degree Wave IV and pave the way for the development of Wave V, potentially leading to Ethereum's next major impulsive advance.
However, the market always has the ability to reveal a more complex structure. The aggressive alternate scenario therefore remains valid. Under this interpretation, the current rally may represent nothing more than another connecting Wave X, rather than the beginning of Wave V. If that proves to be the case, the entire correction could expand into a Triple Three (W-X-Y-X-Z), with W and Y both unfolding as Zigzag corrections before the market develops its final corrective phase.
Should this alternate scenario unfold, Wave Z may take the form of another valid corrective pattern, including a Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or any other corrective structure permitted under the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. Until the corrective sequence is fully complete, both scenarios remain technically valid.
This analysis is not a prediction of the future, but rather my structural interpretation of the market based on the rules, guidelines, and structural relationships of the Elliott Wave Principle. It reflects seven years of studying, researching, and applying Elliott Wave analysis in an effort to better understand the language of market structure. Even so, the market always has the ability to reveal new information as each wave unfolds, often leading to a deeper understanding of the larger pattern. Elliott Wave analysis is therefore not about claiming certainty, but about interpreting the highest-probability structure that the market presents at any given time.
Price is the result. Structure is the cause.
— Mr. Nobody | Elliott Wave Principle
Ethereum / TetherUS
Jun 24
ETHUSDT Macro Analysis: Deciphering the Wave (II) Corrective Str
Long 
Leading Diagonal Suggests a Corrective Rally Before Completing XAGUSD (Silver) | Leading Diagonal Suggests a Corrective Rally Before Completing Higher-Degree Wave IV
"Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause."
After examining the weekly, daily, and now the 4-hour chart, the aggressive scenario continues to align with the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
In this interpretation, the recent decline is counted as a Leading Diagonal following the 5-3-5-3-5 structural sequence. So far, the internal subdivisions remain consistent with the characteristics of a leading diagonal, suggesting that either one lower-degree wave remains before completion, or the pattern has already completed and the market is preparing for its next phase.
If this wave count is correct, the completion of Wave A should be followed by a short-term corrective rally, developing Wave B. Since Wave B may unfold in virtually any corrective form, this analysis focuses on identifying the highest-probability retracement zone rather than assuming a specific corrective pattern.
For that reason, the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels are highlighted as the most likely region for Wave B to terminate.
Once Wave B is complete, the next expectation is the development of an impulsive Wave C, ultimately completing a classic Zigzag (5-3-5) correction. If this scenario unfolds as expected, it would also complete the higher-degree Wave IV correction.
Only after that larger correction is finished will the market be expected to resume its primary trend. Assuming the current wave count remains valid, the next advancing wave could initiate the continuation of the broader bullish cycle.
As always, this is not a price prediction. It is a structural roadmap developed through the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. As long as the invalidation level remains intact, this scenario stays valid and will be updated whenever new price data requires a reassessment.
Signature
"Price is the outcome. Structure is the cause."
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Silver Futures
May 17
Silver: Textbook Grand Supercycle Wave 3 Setup
Silver / U.S. Dollar
May 19
Title: Silver: The Silver Symphony in the Third Movement
Silver / U.S. Dollar
May 19
XAGUSD | 4H Wave Map — A Two-Layer Look at Structure
Long
Microsoft - A Visual AlmanacA rare structural asymmetry has been developing in the equity markets. While the S&P 500's 9.6% year-to-date return establishes a powerful macroeconomic floor, Microsoft has decoupled from the index by undergoing a -30% correction. This combination of an index momentum cycle and a discounted mega-cap growth leader presents a compelling thesis.
The broader market enters the second half of the year backed by strong cyclical momentum, where front-half strength historically serves as a launchpad:
- The S&P 500’s 9.6% YTD return crosses a historical threshold.
- Since 1990, every calendar year clearing this mid-year bar finished the S&P 500 in positive territory.
- Post-milestone, the index has historically generated an additional median gain of 9.8% over the final six months.
To maximize this expansion, capital naturally rotates toward premium growth engines. Microsoft’s retreat to the $385 range; driven by AI capital expenditure fears, presents a disconnect against its high-velocity operational metrics:
- Microsoft’s annualized AI revenue run rate has surged past $37 billion (up 123% YoY).
- The company's contracted commercial backlog stands at $627 billion, proving capex matches enterprise demand.
- This correction dragged Microsoft’s forward P/E down to 22.9x, now discounted cash flow models suggest a 45% upside within one year.
Just as front-half momentum historically breeds back-half strength for the S&P 500, a heavily compressed mega-cap leader builds the coiled-spring energy needed to fuel an index expansion. For individuals tracking this cycle, Microsoft represents a premier large-cap vehicle positioned to lead the market's second-half momentum. Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Zone: Is $60K the Launchpad for $90K?Bitcoin is once again trading inside a historically important demand zone between $60,000 and $64,000. From a technical perspective, the broader structure remains bearish – BTC continues to form lower highs and is still trading below both the 200-day moving average and the major descending trendline.
However, the technical weakness is developing alongside several long-term fundamental catalysts that could create the conditions for a larger recovery.
Corporate demand has not disappeared
Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with more than 843,000 BTC on its balance sheet. The company continued accumulating during the market decline, including purchases around the mid-$60,000 area, although it has also recently sold a relatively small portion of its holdings as part of a new capital-management program.
This distinction matters.
Strategy is no longer operating under a simple “buy and never sell” model. It is increasingly managing Bitcoin as part of a broader treasury structure involving common shares, preferred securities, dividends and cash reserves. The recent sales may create short-term pressure, but the company still controls one of the largest concentrated Bitcoin positions in the world.
Its average acquisition price is estimated at approximately $75,000 per BTC, meaning the current market price is also below Strategy’s overall cost basis.
For long-term bulls, this creates an interesting situation: Bitcoin is trading below the average price paid by its most aggressive corporate buyer.
The Trump family remains deeply exposed to Bitcoin
Bitcoin also continues to receive political and corporate support from businesses connected to the Trump family.
American Bitcoin, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., operates a combined Bitcoin-mining and treasury strategy. The company reportedly holds more than 8,000 BTC, while continuing to accumulate coins through mining despite the broader downturn.
This is not the same as Eric Trump personally purchasing Bitcoin on the open market. However, the family’s exposure through American Bitcoin means that its financial interests remain closely connected to the long-term performance of the asset.
President Donald Trump has also continued to present himself as supportive of the cryptocurrency industry. His recent pro-crypto comments helped Bitcoin recover after temporarily falling toward $60,000, demonstrating that political messaging can still influence short-term market sentiment.
Weak price, strong strategic interest
Bitcoin has declined sharply from its previous peak, but the fundamental story has not disappeared.
Corporate treasury companies remain exposed to the asset. Mining firms continue accumulating production. Political figures are increasingly connected to cryptocurrency businesses. Meanwhile, the market is now trading near levels that previously attracted significant institutional demand.
This does not guarantee that $60,000 will hold.
It does suggest that the current area is more than just another horizontal support level. It is becoming a test of whether long-term strategic buyers are prepared to absorb the supply created by leveraged traders, weaker treasury companies and short-term investors.
Technical structure
The first major condition for a bullish reversal is a sustained hold above the $60,000–$63,000 demand zone.
Bitcoin has already tested this area several times. Repeated tests can weaken support, but the market has so far avoided a decisive daily breakdown below $60,000.
The first upside objective is located around $66,000–$67,000, where recent local highs may create selling pressure.
Above that level, Bitcoin would approach the most important resistance cluster on the chart:
The descending trendline from the previous highs
The 200-day moving average
The horizontal resistance area around $70,000–$74,000
A move into this region would not automatically confirm a new bull market. It would represent the real decision point.
Bullish scenario
The bullish scenario would develop in several stages:
Bitcoin holds the $60,000–$63,000 support zone.
Price breaks above $66,000–$67,000.
BTC reaches the descending trendline near $70,000–$74,000.
The market closes decisively above the trendline and 200-day moving average.
A successful retest turns former resistance into support.
If this structure develops, the next upside targets would be:
Target 1: $77,000
The first major resistance after the breakout.
Target 2: $82,000
A previous reaction area and psychologically important level.
Target 3: $88,000–$90,000
The larger recovery target shown on the chart.
A breakout above $74,000 could also force short sellers to close positions, potentially accelerating the move through a short squeeze.
Bearish scenario
The bearish risk remains significant.
Bitcoin is still below a falling 200-day moving average and has not broken the sequence of lower highs. Until that changes, every rally can technically be treated as a countertrend move.
A decisive daily or weekly close below $60,000 would weaken the setup and expose:
$57,000–$58,000
$54,000–$55,000
Potentially the psychological $50,000 level
The greatest warning signal would be a breakdown below $60,000 followed by a failed attempt to reclaim it. In that case, former support could turn into resistance and create another wave of selling.
The bigger picture
Bitcoin is currently caught between two opposing forces.
On one side, the chart remains bearish, corporate treasury models are under pressure and some large holders have begun managing or reducing parts of their positions.
On the other side, Strategy still holds more than 843,000 BTC, Trump-linked American Bitcoin continues building its treasury through mining, and political support for the cryptocurrency sector remains stronger than during previous cycles.
The market does not need immediately bullish news to recover. It needs selling pressure to weaken while long-term demand continues absorbing supply.
That process may already be taking place around $60,000.
Key levels
Major support: $60,000–$63,000
Local confirmation: $66,000–$67,000
Breakout zone: $70,000–$74,000
Bullish targets: $77,000 / $82,000 / $88,000
Bearish invalidation: Confirmed breakdown and failed reclaim of $60,000
Bitcoin has not confirmed a reversal yet.
But with price compressed near major support, corporate and politically connected entities still holding substantial exposure, and the descending trendline moving closer to the market, the next breakout could determine the direction of BTC for the rest of the summer.
The opportunity is not the prediction. The opportunity is the asymmetric setup between clearly defined support and a potential structural breakout. 
Long
TOTAL2 Exclude Stablecoins vs Russell 2000his chart compares two different risk markets.
On the left, Russell 2000.
On the right, the crypto market excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins.
At the bottom, the relative ratio between the two.
The purpose is simple: Is the broader crypto market structurally dead, or is it still lagging behind traditional risk assets before a new rotation phase? Russell 2000 already completed its post 2021 repair.
It made the 2021 top.
It corrected.
It formed the 2022 bottom.
It retested the old high.
Then it broke out and moved into a new expansion phase.
TOTAL2 excluding BTC and stablecoins is following a similar broad structure, but with a clear delay.
It also made the 2021 top.
It also corrected into the 2022 bottom.
It also rebuilt through 2023 and 2024.
It also returned near the old high region.
But unlike Russell 2000, it has not confirmed a clean breakout yet.
That is the key difference. relative ratio is now near the same lower range that marked the 2022 bottom area. means the broader crypto market is not expensive versus Russell 2000 here.
It is deeply reset.
The ratio is sitting near a region where previous relative weakness reached exhaustion before recovery started.
That does not mean immediate expansion.
It means the market is back in a historical relative value zone.
For the bullish rotation thesis, two things matter now:
First, TOTAL2 excluding BTC and stablecoins must defend its higher base.
Second, the ratio against Russell 2000 must stop losing ground and start reclaiming the lower range. If that happens, the setup changes from lagging risk asset to relative recovery candidate. If the ratio breaks below the 2022 relative bottom and TOTAL2 loses its base, the structure weakens.
So the chart is not giving a completed signal yet.
It is showing a location.
Russell 2000 has already moved through its repair and breakout phase.
Crypto excluding BTC and stablecoins is still sitting at the delayed version of that same question. market is not asking whether altcoins are popular. Its asking whether the broad crypto risk curve can finally stop underperforming traditional small cap risk. the level to watch. 
Long
Gold | One More Wave… or Has Wave B Already Begun?XAUUSD – 4H Elliott Wave Analysis
According to the higher-degree Weekly and Daily wave counts, Gold appears to be developing Wave IV. This analysis is built upon the Elliott Wave Principle, adhering to its core rules and structural guidelines rather than relying on price prediction.
The first component of this structure is a Leading Diagonal, which may have already reached completion. If confirmed, the market could initiate a short-term bullish move, representing Wave B within the larger corrective structure.
However, an alternative scenario remains equally valid. One final decline may still be required to complete the Leading Diagonal before Wave B can begin. Until price confirms the structure, both scenarios should remain under consideration.
Once the Leading Diagonal is complete, the preferred expectation is for Wave B to unfold, followed by Wave C, ultimately completing Wave IV as a classic Zigzag (A–B–C). Structurally, the 50.0%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone remains the most probable region for the completion of this corrective phase.
Another critical factor to monitor is the relationship between Gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Whether their traditional inverse correlation remains intact or temporarily weakens will likely influence the path, momentum, and timing of the remaining corrective structure.
As always, the objective is not to predict price, but to identify the market's structural development. The structure will determine the path; price will simply reveal it.
This analysis represents a structural roadmap based on the Elliott Wave Principle. The market will ultimately confirm or invalidate the scenario.
Signature
Price is the outcome; Structure is the cause.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr.Nobody
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
7 days ago
Is the Leading Diagonal Signaling the Beginning of Wave IV?
Long
BTCUSD 30M | Final Compression Before Explosion📈 BTCUSD | The Final Vector Compression Before Structural Expansion
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⏳ Market Condition
The market is approaching a critical convergence where price, time, and structural geometry are reaching simultaneous maturity.
Every major turning point during this sequence has developed around the same rigid framework, confirming that Bitcoin is respecting an organized structural rhythm rather than moving through random volatility.
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🧩 Structural Framework
The reactive footprints established across Vector Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta prove that every impulsive vector has precisely obeyed the same underlying architectural matrix.
The current downward pressure into Vector Omega represents the final corrective phase within this geometric sequence, guiding price action directly into the primary execution gate.
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⏰ Time & Price Confluence
More importantly, the projected 0.618 time-extension window, combined with the structural floor beneath Vector Omega, creates a high-probability decision zone.
This area is not simply a horizontal support level; it is the exact intersection where price location, structural geometry, and timing converge into a single execution point.
Markets always unleash their most violent moves when these elements align simultaneously.
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🚀 Potential Scenario
If buyers successfully defend this region, the current correction represents nothing more than the final phase of structural accumulation before a new impulsive leg develops.
A successful reaction from this zone will open the path to breach the descending trendline and initiate the next high-velocity expansion.
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⚠️ Final Observation
The market will always confirm the outcome.
But when Price, Time, Structure, and Geometry begin speaking the same language across the Vector Matrix, ignoring the message becomes increasingly difficult.
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⚠️ Scenario Invalidation
This scenario will remain valid only if Vector Gamma's structural floor at 61,508.56 holds until price reaches the projected 0.618 time-extension window.
A breakdown below 61,508.56 before the market reaches the 0.618 time window will invalidate this entire bullish scenario.
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✍🏻 Mohsen Nirumand
Long 
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Simple Zigzag Remains the Preferred Structure# **Aggressive Scenario**
This analysis explores the aggressive scenario through the development of a **Simple Zigzag**, presenting the complete structure of this corrective pattern in accordance with the **rules and guidelines of Ralph Nelson Elliott's Wave Principle**.
Although last week's analysis highlighted the formation of **seven swings**, suggesting that the correction could be evolving into a **Double Zigzag**, the possibility still remains that the market may expand into any valid corrective pattern with greater **time, price, and structural complexity**. However, based on the current wave structure and the **personality of Bitcoin's market behavior**, the preferred interpretation continues to favor another decline.
According to the current wave count, the market is developing **Wave (1)** and **Wave (2)** of a larger-degree **Wave C**. Therefore, as long as price continues to respect the **First Price Invalidation Analysis ($82,807.3)**, this aggressive scenario remains the preferred interpretation.
Consequently, any valid corrective structure that develops as **Wave (2)** should be viewed, under the Elliott Wave Principle, as a temporary correction. Once completed, the market is expected to resume its decline in **Wave (3)**, continuing toward the downside targets identified on the chart.
As with every Elliott Wave analysis, the market itself will ultimately determine which structure unfolds. **We do not predict price; we follow the structure that the market builds.** Therefore, this analysis represents a **structural interpretation**, not a price forecast. Should market structure change or the rules of the Elliott Wave Principle be violated, the preferred wave count will be revised accordingly.
---
**— Mr. Nobody**
*Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher*
**"Patterns whisper. I listen."** 📊🎧
Bitcoin
4 days ago
Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.
Short 
Short 
Wave (IV) May Be Preparing the Next Bullish CycleBitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Daily Chart
Aggressive Scenario: Wave (IV) May Be Preparing the Next Bullish Cycle
Based on the current market structure, the preferred wave count is derived from the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
The preferred interpretation suggests that the decline from the recent high is developing as Wave (IV) of a larger degree. At this stage, the correction is most likely unfolding as a Bigger Zigzag, with the market progressing through its internal a-b-c structure before Wave (IV) reaches completion.
As long as this wave count remains structurally consistent, the completion of Wave (IV) could provide the foundation for the next impulsive advance in Wave (V).
Based on the current wave structure and Fibonacci relationships, the initial objective would be the First Target Range, followed by the Target Range. If Wave (V) extends, the market could eventually reach the Expanded Target, completing another major impulsive sequence.
However, until Wave (IV) is confirmed as complete, every bullish objective should be viewed strictly as a structural scenario, rather than a price prediction. The ongoing corrective structure will determine whether Wave (IV) concludes as a relatively straightforward correction or evolves into a more complex pattern, such as a Multiple Zigzag or another valid corrective formation.
For this reason, the primary focus remains on monitoring the internal development of Wave (IV). Only after the correction is structurally complete can the probability of the next impulsive advance in Wave (V) be evaluated with greater confidence.
If the completion of Wave (IV) is confirmed, the larger bullish cycle is expected to resume. Under this scenario, Wave (V) could carry Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high and establish a new historical high. The ultimate extent of Wave (V), however, will depend on the strength and quality of the impulsive structure emerging from the completion of Wave (IV).
This analysis presents a structural interpretation based on the Elliott Wave Principle and should not be considered a price prediction. The preferred wave count will be reassessed whenever market structure no longer supports the current interpretation.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧 Short 
Aggressive Scenario: Wave (IV) Remains the Preferred OutlookBitcoin (BTC/USD) – Weekly Chart
Aggressive Scenario: Wave (IV) Remains the Preferred Outlook
From a structural perspective, the current wave count remains valid based on the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle.
The preferred interpretation is that Bitcoin is currently developing Wave (IV) of a larger degree. At this stage, the most probable corrective structure remains either a Simple Zigzag or, should the correction become more complex, a Multiple Zigzag.
Based on the current structure, the $30,000–$40,000 region continues to represent the preferred target zone for the completion of Wave (IV).
However, if the correction extends into a larger and more complex structure, Wave (IV) could eventually retrace toward the price territory of Wave (4) of Wave (5), located near $15,000. At the present time, there is insufficient structural evidence to favor such an extended correction.
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the probability of a deeper retracement can only be evaluated after at least three waves of the corrective structure have been completed. Until then, the internal structure of the correction should continue to guide the preferred wave count.
Therefore, the primary expectation remains the completion of Wave (IV) as either a Simple Zigzag or a Multiple Zigzag, with the $30,000–$40,000 region serving as the preferred target. Any assessment of a deeper decline toward the territory of Wave (4) of Wave (5) will depend on how the corrective structure develops in the coming months.
This analysis presents a structural interpretation based on the Elliott Wave Principle and should not be considered a price prediction. The wave count remains valid as long as market structure continues to support it. Any violation of Elliott Wave rules or structural changes may require a revised wave count.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧 Short 
Simple Zigzag Toward the Completion of the Corrective CycleBitcoin (BTC/USD) – Daily Chart
Aggressive Scenario: Simple Zigzag Toward the Completion of the Corrective Cycle
The aggressive scenario continues to favor the development of a Simple Zigzag (A-B-C) correction. If this structure unfolds as expected, Bitcoin could decline toward the $40,000 region before the larger corrective cycle reaches completion.
As illustrated on the chart, Wave A has already completed as a clear five-wave impulse, satisfying one of the defining characteristics of a Zigzag correction. Following that decline, Wave B developed as a Classic Zigzag, and the most recent selloff is currently interpreted as Wave (1) of Wave C.
If this wave count remains valid, the current advance is expected to unfold as Wave (2) in the form of any valid three-wave corrective structure. Once that correction is complete, the market could resume its decline in Wave (3), followed by a corrective Wave (4) before a final decline in Wave (5) completes Wave C and, consequently, the entire Simple Zigzag correction.
Under this scenario, the completion of the correction would also mark the end of the current eight-wave Elliott Wave cycle, potentially paving the way for the beginning of a new impulsive cycle. If confirmed, this new cycle could carry Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high and establish a new historical high.
However, if the current rally extends beyond the expected corrective structure, there remains the possibility that the correction evolves into a Triple Zigzag. While this alternative still belongs to the aggressive outlook, the Simple Zigzag currently remains the preferred scenario, as it provides the most direct interpretation while remaining fully consistent with the present wave structure.
This analysis presents a structural Elliott Wave scenario, not a price prediction. The wave count remains valid as long as the Elliott Wave Principle and the current market structure continue to support it. Should the structure change, the wave count will be revised accordingly.
— Mr. Nobody
Independent Elliott Wave Principle Researcher
"Patterns whisper. I listen." 📊🎧
Bitcoin
Feb 5
Bitcoin Daily – Wave I Completed, Corrective Phase in Progress
Bitcoin
Feb 5
Bitcoin 4H – Final Leg of the Bearish Impulse (Wave 5 of 5)
Bitcoin
4 days ago
Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.
Short 
Long 
Long
