The Cost of Refusing to Exit: Saddam Hussein and the Psychology # Saddam Hussein’s Bad Trade: When Walking Away Becomes Too Difficult
*Inspired by “Hussein Makes a Bad Trade” in Jack D. Schwager’s The New Market Wizards*
### A Trade Called Kuwait
On August 2, 1990, Saddam Hussein made a decision that would change the course of the Middle East: Iraq invaded Kuwait.
Iraq had just emerged from an eight-year war with Iran. The country was heavily indebted, its economy was under pressure, and tensions with Kuwait had been growing over oil production, territor
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
DOGE: The Calm Before a Breakout?Yello, Paradisers, is #DOGEUSDT preparing for a bullish breakout, or could entering too early leave buyers trapped beneath resistance?
💎The 15-minute #DOGEUSDT chart shows price near $0.07657, consolidating inside a falling wedge after a sharp upward move. This structure keeps a bullish continuation scenario in play, but there is one important distinction: a promising setup is not a confirmed breakout.
💎The immediate focus is the one-hour support zone around $0.07620–$0.07650. A dip into this
Bitcoin: Five Waves or Three?# Bitcoin: The Difference Between a Five-Wave Impulse and a Corrective Structure
### Continuing the Previous Research: “Saddam Hussein’s Bad Trade: When Exiting a Position Becomes More Difficult”
This article continues my previous research on decision-making and the difficulty of accepting that we may be wrong. I recommend reading the previous part first, because despite using different examples, both articles explore the same underlying principle:
**We should not remain loyal to our initial
Natural Gas: Elliott Wave Structure Meets Global Energy Risks# Natural Gas | Approaching a Major Move: Elliott Wave Structure, Supply Risks, and Winter Demand
**Market: Natural Gas Futures (MCX) | Timeframe: Daily (1D)**
The global energy market is facing a period in which technical developments, geopolitical conditions, and seasonal changes in supply and demand are playing an increasingly important role in shaping price behavior.
Natural gas, as one of the world's most important energy sources, plays a fundamental role not only in electricity generati
Bitcoin CME | Is Wave IV Still Developing?Reading time: Approximately 3 minutes
Following my previous weekly analysis, I’m taking a closer look at Bitcoin’s larger-degree structure through the daily CME futures chart.
In the current count, the advance toward approximately $126,000 marks the completion of Wave III. The market may now be developing Wave IV. The main question is whether this correction is taking a sideways form or preparing for a deeper decline.
Why Keep the Current Count in Focus?
One important guideline in Elliott Wa
Bitcoin | Structure vs. CorrelationBitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY): Correlation or Structural Priority?
In this analysis, the behavior of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is being monitored alongside Bitcoin's price structure. A comparison of the charts reveals that, during certain periods, the two markets have shown an inverse relationship, while at other times, periods of relative positive correlation have emerged. This changing behavior suggests that the relationship between DXY and Bitcoin should not be treated as a constant
USDCAD: Too Overbought?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD may retrace after a false violation of a daily key level.
A formation of a bearish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame indicates the overbought state of the market.
The price may drop to 1.404 level.
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S&P 500 (SPX): Testing Key Supports — Bounce or Major CorrectionDescription:
The S&P 500 is experiencing a sharp pullback on the daily chart, testing multiple critical technical levels. Price is approaching pivotal support nodes, and the coming sessions will determine whether we see a bullish reaction or the breakdown into a larger correction.
🔑 Key Technical Support Levels:
Fib 0.786 Daily (~7,432): The immediate horizontal support currently being tested.
200 Daily EMA & Ascending Trendline (~7,200 – 7,300): The core dynamic support cluster mai
MESZ Nov 6: Relief Bounce Above 7427 or Breakdown Toward 7250?MESZ is trading around 7,390 after a significant sell-off and is now consolidating near the lower end of the recent range.
The market remains structurally weak, but there is room for a relief bounce if buyers regain control.
The first major upside confirmation level is 7,427.
A confirmed 1-hour close above 7,427 could support a retracement into the higher-time-frame fair value gap, with 7,515 as the first important level and approximately 7,550 as a deeper target inside the imbalance.
On the
BBY - Simple Channel, Weekly Cup, and the Trade I'm Waiting ForMonthly: BBY is respecting a simple buying channel. Price fell out of it and reclaimed it on consistent volume.
Weekly: When I plug in the very simple algorithms, they tell a clear story of where liquidity is sitting and where it's been distributed. The more price respects them, the cleaner the chart and the easier it is to find trades.
The setup: a weekly cup that's close to complete.
What I expect next: a clean liquidity build in the form of a handle, then a breakout toward HTF supply
US 100 SHORTPrice has broken below the daily demand zone indicating a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish. Although I do not trade this index,it serves as an indicator of how US Equities are likely to perform. The indication is that there is likely to be price correction which could allow buyers to pick up valuable companies.
XAU/USD 05 November 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bullish pullback phase initiaiton. The remaining bias and analysis remains the same as analysis dated 02 November 2026.
Price has finally printed according to my bias and analysis dated 30 June 2026 where I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,942.100.
This clearly demonstrate
The poles are shifting. Where will the bears lose their Magnets?NYSE:MP
Catching falling knives is a job for amateurs. I prefer to wait until the big fish walks into the trap on its own. MP Materials is showing a textbook picture right now: instead of jumping in at current levels, we calmly wait for price to finish its gradual slide and drop to the bottom of a deep institutional discount. Local pessimism is essentially a smokescreen, needed to shake the excess passengers out of the stock before a new wave higher begins.
The entire geometry of the macro
MESZ Nov 5: Range Break Above 7745 or Breakdown Below 7691?MESZ is trading around 7,724 after an overnight consolidation, leaving price inside a clear higher-time-frame range.
The two main decision levels are 7,745 on the upside and 7,691 on the downside.
A confirmed 1-hour or 4-hour close above 7,745 would strengthen the bullish structure and could support continuation toward the next major liquidity target around 7,819.
On the downside, a confirmed close below 7,691 would weaken the current structure and could open a deeper correction into the high
AUDCAD BEARISH PRESSURE-IS 0.93/0.92 NEXTOn the daily charts, price grabbed liquidity at 0.99 before sellers took control pushing price lower, targeting the fair value gaps/profit zones, liquidity levels and unmitigated demand zones. Presently, price has contacted a demand zone, once we have a clear breakout below the demand zone or short term bullish pullback we will seek the appropriate trade opportunities. Our outlook remains bearish targeting lower fair value gaps at 0.93 or 0.92.
XAU/USD 06 November 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,870.605.
Note:
Gold remains highly sensit
DPZ - Short-term trade / HTF ChartWe're at a HTF level and being offered a LTF trade within - before the full confirmation has been presented.
For an entry I'd like to see more promising volume show up on the defense of bulls as we trade lower off of the LTF selling channel.
If this all important $283 level fails I will be looking for the bottom of the tapered trendline at $263 to hold and show some signs.
Happy Trading :)























