Long
Short
Short
Long
Short
XAUUSD H12 SELL ViewWhy Every Gold Trader Must Understand CPI, Oil, and the US Dollar
— One of the biggest mistakes new traders make is believing that gold only moves because of war or fear.
— The reality is that gold is constantly reacting to a much bigger picture, and one of the most important pieces of that puzzle is CPI (Consumer Price Index).
✍️So, what is CPI?
CPI measures inflation. It tracks the average price of everyday goods and services such as food, fuel, rent, transport, electricity, and clothing. If these prices are rising, CPI increases. If prices are cooling, CPI falls.
✍️Why does this matter?
Because the Federal Reserve uses inflation data to decide whether interest rates should stay high, go higher, or begin to fall.
✍️Now let’s connect the dots.
— Oil is one of the biggest drivers of inflation. When oil prices rise, transport becomes more expensive, businesses face higher operating costs, and those costs are often passed on to consumers. As a result, inflation rises, and CPI tends to increase.
— When CPI comes in higher than expected, the market often expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates make the US Dollar more attractive because investors can earn better returns by holding dollars.
This is why you’ll often see the following chain reaction:
Oil ↑ → Inflation ↑ → CPI ↑ → Interest Rates Stay High → USD ↑ → Gold ↓
Many traders ask, “Why is gold falling when there’s a war?”
The answer is simple: gold isn’t driven by just one factor.
Gold is influenced by two major forces:
• Safe-haven demand – wars, geopolitical tensions, financial uncertainty, and market fear generally support gold.
• Interest rates and the US Dollar – higher inflation, a stronger dollar, and rising bond yields often put pressure on gold.
— Whichever force is stronger usually determines the direction of the market.
— This is exactly why gold can sometimes fall even during major geopolitical conflicts. If traders believe inflation will remain high and the Fed will stay hawkish, the stronger US Dollar can outweigh the safe-haven demand for gold.
As traders, don’t just focus on the headlines.
Instead, ask yourself:
“Will this news make the Federal Reserve more hawkish or more dovish?”
— That single question often explains far more about gold’s movement than the news itself.
— Understanding these connections will give you a much clearer view of why the market moves the way it does. Short 
BITCOIN - A false breakout of resistance in a bear market BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is forming a retest of the key 64,500 resistance level as part of a countertrend correction, trapping late buyers while the market remains in a liquidity sweep phase
The broader trend remains bearish. Unstable ETF flows, the lack of meaningful fundamental support, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.
Within the broader bear market, the market maker has swept liquidity above 64,500 before pushing price back into the trading range. Bitcoin remains in a 62,000–65,000 consolidation zone, while the higher-timeframe trend continues to point lower. A short squeeze into the resistance area could trigger another sell-off toward the 60K–50K region
Resistance levels: 64,450, 64,700, 65,600
Support levels: 62,750, 61,300
A retest of the liquidity pool above 64,450 may attract renewed selling pressure. If bears successfully defend this key resistance zone, it would further confirm the prevailing bearish market structure and increase the probability of a decline toward 62,750 and 61,300
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
GOLD - Anticipating a short squeeze before the decline continuesICMARKETS:XAUUSD experienced a short squeeze around the key liquidity zone following Tuesday's CPI release. However, the market quickly regained its bearish momentum and resumed selling in line with the prevailing trend
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, as does the broader market, but the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend, keeping pressure on gold. The lack of fundamental support, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to favor the bears. The escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of uncertainty
Gold is still under pressure, with sellers maintaining control and using every rebound as an opportunity to initiate new short positions. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Warsh. The daily technical structure remains bearish.
Bearish drivers : Escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Higher oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Technical sell-on-rallies
Bullish drivers : Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected inflation data (including PPI), Dovish Fed commentary
Resistance levels: 4062, 4103
Support levels: 4021, 3986, 3960
Technically, gold is testing the 4021 intermediate support level. A local false breakdown could trigger a countertrend rebound toward the 4062 resistance zone to sweep liquidity before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3986–3960
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
Long 
Short
Long 
NIFTY 50| Coiling At A High-Volume Cluster—The Breakout Decides!
By analyzing the #NIFTY (Nifty 50 Index) chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price is compressing into a decisive high-volume battle zone after a clean structural recovery. The next candle close out of this area is what decides the direction — so let's break down exactly what's happening.
📊 4H Timeframe
On the 4H, the index had been in a downtrend, printing bearish BOS along the way. That character changed when price put in a bullish CHoCH, rallied up to correct into the Order Block, then pulled back lower inside a descending channel. From there, price launched an impulsive wave up and is now working through a three-wave (ABC) corrective pullback.
The key feature on the chart is the rectangle sitting at the High Value Area (HVA) — a cluster formed between two overlapping Volume Profiles. This is where the heaviest volume has traded, which makes it a genuinely strong, high-conviction zone: the more contracts that changed hands here, the more significant the level becomes as either support or a launchpad. Price is currently pressing right into this cluster around 24,081 , directly beneath the green Flip Zone ( 24,097 – 24,391 ).
🎯 The Bias
Two scenarios are on the table, and both hinge on a decisive candle close:
Scenario A — Bullish breakout (with volume): if price breaks the high-volume rectangle to the upside with a strong candle close on high volume, it confirms the buyers have absorbed the cluster — opening an aggressive push higher to sweep the buy-side liquidity above, toward the upper Order Block at 24,860 and then 26,223 – 26,376 .
Scenario B — Bearish continuation (wave C): if instead price breaks the current descending channel to the downside with a strong candle close, it confirms the corrective wave C is unfolding — and in that case, the drop is likely to be deep, targeting the structure well below.
In my view, the high-volume cluster is the line that separates these two paths. I'm not anticipating the move — I'm waiting for the decisive close to tell me which side has won the battle at this level.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The technical compression mirrors a genuinely indecisive tape today. As of July 16, the Nifty 50 is holding just above 24,100 (around 24,150 intraday) after closing the prior session almost flat at 24,074 — a clear lack of directional conviction that fits the coiling price action perfectly. Today's mild strength is being led by a rally in IT stocks (Nifty IT up over 1.2%, with Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra gaining) on hopes of a softer US Fed policy after fresh US inflation data, alongside strength in banks, autos and cement names posting strong June-quarter business updates. But the caution is real: FII selling continued in the prior session (offset by steady DII buying), soaring oil prices and renewed US–Iran military tensions are weighing on sentiment, and the June-quarter earnings season is still unfolding with more results due. The 24,000 zone is the immediate support the whole market is watching — a level that aligns closely with our high-volume cluster, while a move above 24,300 opens the door toward 24,500 – 24,600. Until earnings and geopolitics resolve, expect exactly the kind of two-sided, range-bound behavior the chart is showing.
This analysis will be updated as the market evolves. If this breakdown added value, drop a like 👍 and a comment 💬 to support the work — and share where you see the Nifty heading next! Best Regards, BigBeluga 🐳 XAUT - 4H - 16.07.2026The major support psychological floor at $4,000 has snapped. Heavy selling volume is driving price action through a structural void, targeting the lower demand clusters near $3,910 and $3,850.Sitting out until the flush completes.
Macro Technical Analysis for XAUt
The Breakout Failure:
XAUt had been aggressively fighting to hold a floor above $4,000. The pink zone around $4,017 – $4,040 was acting as the line in the sand for buyers.
The Present Drop:
Slicing beneath $4,000 marks a heavy bearish shift. Price action is cascading downward through a structural imbalance zone with very little immediate history to hold it up.
The Gold Catchment Targets:
The first minor stabilisation floor rests near $3,910. The ultimate institutional accumulation block sits lower down between $3,845 and $3,860. 
Long
Short 
ONDO: Launching From Major SupportONDO: Launching From Major Support – Optimal Strategy to Target a High-RR Long Setup
ONDO has officially confirmed a powerful bullish breakout after clearing a pivotal dynamic barrier. Following a tight sideways consolidation phase that lasted over three weeks, a sudden surge in buying momentum successfully propelled the price action above the MA100 trend moving average line. This technical trigger materialized immediately after the price completed its third successful retest of the long-term ascending support trendline, signaling a highly promising new growth cycle.
Looking back at the historical data displayed on chart , the cyclical behavior of this asset is functioning exceptionally well. At the first trendline touch, the price rallied by 48%; at the second touch, the explosive expansion reached 103%. Currently, the third touch has officially initiated an upward push, aiming for a primary target back toward the previous major peak near the $1
.00 psychological round number.
To map out this setup, we can evaluate two entry approaches. Executing a direct buy (Long) at current market prices, with a secure stop-loss positioned below the ascending trendline, yields an attractive risk-to-reward (RR) ratio greater than 5. However, exercising patience to wait for a technical pullback to retest the dynamic MA100 line below will provide a much stronger edge, optimizing the setup with an outstanding RR ratio greater than 8.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Long
Short
Long 
Long
Long
