SPX: S&P 500 Futures Steady as Big Fed Decision Keeps a Lid on Optimism

Crowded week of earnings, central-bank decisions and inflation data will test whether markets can regain their footing.

📊 Wall Street prepares for a demanding week

• S&P 500 futures edged about 0.1% higher early Monday, while Nasdaq-100 futures were broadly flat. That follows Friday’s 0.5% decline to 7,623.68 for the broad market benchmark..
• The Dow lost 653 points, or 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%, showing that selling had spread beyond technology.
• Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close, followed by Amazon Thursday evening. Cloud growth, capital spending and cash generation will receive particular scrutiny after recent AI volatility.
• AI infrastructure providers remained under pressure overnight, with CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN falling around 3%. Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh acknowledged that some financing channels had temporarily dried up.

🌏 Asia weakens as Brazil faces an election repricing

• Japan’s Nikkei fell around 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1% and Chinese blue chips declined 1% in Monday’s morning snapshot. Korea’s benchmark has shed almost 20% this month, while Chinese equities face persistent concern over domestic demand despite relatively strong exports.
• SK Hynix bucked the weakness, rising about 0.5%, after confirming shareholder-return measures would accompany Wednesday’s earnings. A newspaper reported a potential 16 trillion won, or roughly $12 billion, special dividend. The company has confirmed a review of options, leaving the size and form of any distribution unresolved.
• Brazilian assets face a sharp adjustment after Lula’s election victory. Challenger Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede, adding uncertainty to the policy debate. The US-listed Brazil ETF, EWZ, fell more than 18% in overnight trading.
• Currency markets were steadier: USD/JPY traded near ¥156.70, EUR/USD around $1.1220 and GBP/USD near $1.3350. Sterling faces Wednesday’s UK budget alongside the global rate outlook. European equity futures edged higher, offering a modestly firmer indication despite the cautious Asian session.

🛢️ Oil eases, but inflation remains central

• Brent slipped roughly 1.6% to $114.80 and US crude fell toward $101.30, following reports of Qatari mediation efforts in Tehran. The pullback follows Brent’s 6.2% weekly surge.
• Even after Monday’s decline, elevated energy costs remain a challenge for household spending, corporate margins and policymakers attempting to contain inflation.
• Gold hovered around $4,000, struggling to attract sustained defensive buying as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty against higher-rate risks. Bitcoin briefly broke below $80,000 over the weekend, with roughly $404 million in leveraged bullish crypto positions liquidated over four hours Saturday.
• The Fed decision arrives Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, with a hold widely expected. Thursday then brings US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation at 8:30 a.m. ET. Those releases will help determine whether resilient growth and persistent price pressure justify another increase in borrowing costs.
• The ECB follows Thursday and the BOJ Friday, with both expected to hold while traders examine guidance on subsequent hikes. Amazon’s results Thursday evening and ExxonMobil and Chevron earnings Friday complete the week’s major tests.