מעודכן
Trend Safety Switch
Trend Safety Switch is a long-only SuperTrend strategy with a simple risk check.
It tries to stay in good trends and step aside when the market looks risky. It never goes short.
HOW TO READ IT
- Green line under price = up trend, the strategy is invested.
- Red line above price = down trend.
- Grey line = the trend is up, but the market is risk-off, so the strategy stays out.
- Orange background = risk-off. Enough warnings are on, and the strategy holds 0%.
- BUY -> 100% label: the strategy invests the full position.
- SELL 70% (keep 30%) label: the trend turned down, but the market is still healthy, so part of the position is kept.
- SELL ALL label: the strategy exits everything.
- "Now: ..." at the right edge shows the current position, trend and risk state, with the reason.
- The table compares the strategy with buy-and-hold on the same bars.
WHAT IS NEW COMPARED WITH THE ORIGINAL
Classic SuperTrend is all-in or all-out on every flip. That causes many whipsaws in choppy markets and full exits from healthy uptrends. This version keeps the original band logic and defaults and adds:
1. A risk check with three warnings (each can be turned off): VIX ranking over 252 bars is 80 or higher, close is below the 200-bar average, and the drop from the 1-year high is deeper than 15%. Risk-off = 2 or more warnings (adjustable).
2. Partial selling: on a down-flip in a healthy market, it keeps 30% (adjustable) instead of selling everything. In risk-off it holds 0%.
3. A chop filter: a new full entry needs ADX of 15 or more.
4. Plain-word labels, a live status label and alerts for each label and for risk-off.
5. A stats table: return, max drawdown, time invested and closed trades, strategy vs buy-and-hold.
SETTINGS
- SuperTrend: ATR 10, multiplier 3.0, source hl2 (original defaults).
- Risk check: VIX symbol CBOE:VIX, 200-bar average, 15% drawdown limit, 2 warnings needed.
- Keep 30% on a down-flip (set 0 for classic all-in/all-out). ADX 14, minimum 15.
- Backtest start: 2000.
STRATEGY PROPERTIES USED FOR THE REPORT
- Initial capital 10,000. Long only. Position size 0%, 30% or 100% of equity. No leverage.
- Commission 0.02% per order, slippage 2 ticks.
- Orders fill at the next bar's open.
- Daily ETFs trade rarely, so the test runs from 2000 to get more than 100 trades.
HONEST RESULTS
In my own test on daily QQQ and SPY (2010-2026, with costs), the strategy earned much less than buy-and-hold on both. On QQQ it had a smaller max drawdown than buy-and-hold and did better than plain SuperTrend. On SPY it did not beat plain SuperTrend, and it fell about as much as buy-and-hold in 2022. Treat it as a drawdown-control tool, not a way to beat the index. Results change a lot with the symbol, period and settings.
NOTES AND LIMITS
- Made for daily charts of liquid US indexes and ETFs. The VIX warning is US-specific, so turn it off for other markets.
- SuperTrend lags by design. Gaps can make fills worse than the signal price.
CREDIT
SuperTrend is a classic ATR indicator by Olivier Seban. The band and trend-flip code is based on the open-source "SuperTrend" by KivancOzbilgic, who credits everget for the signal style. Thank you. This is a Pine v6 strategy rewrite with new position logic and filters.
DISCLAIMER
For education only. This is not financial advice. Past results and backtests do not guarantee future results.
It tries to stay in good trends and step aside when the market looks risky. It never goes short.
HOW TO READ IT
- Green line under price = up trend, the strategy is invested.
- Red line above price = down trend.
- Grey line = the trend is up, but the market is risk-off, so the strategy stays out.
- Orange background = risk-off. Enough warnings are on, and the strategy holds 0%.
- BUY -> 100% label: the strategy invests the full position.
- SELL 70% (keep 30%) label: the trend turned down, but the market is still healthy, so part of the position is kept.
- SELL ALL label: the strategy exits everything.
- "Now: ..." at the right edge shows the current position, trend and risk state, with the reason.
- The table compares the strategy with buy-and-hold on the same bars.
WHAT IS NEW COMPARED WITH THE ORIGINAL
Classic SuperTrend is all-in or all-out on every flip. That causes many whipsaws in choppy markets and full exits from healthy uptrends. This version keeps the original band logic and defaults and adds:
1. A risk check with three warnings (each can be turned off): VIX ranking over 252 bars is 80 or higher, close is below the 200-bar average, and the drop from the 1-year high is deeper than 15%. Risk-off = 2 or more warnings (adjustable).
2. Partial selling: on a down-flip in a healthy market, it keeps 30% (adjustable) instead of selling everything. In risk-off it holds 0%.
3. A chop filter: a new full entry needs ADX of 15 or more.
4. Plain-word labels, a live status label and alerts for each label and for risk-off.
5. A stats table: return, max drawdown, time invested and closed trades, strategy vs buy-and-hold.
SETTINGS
- SuperTrend: ATR 10, multiplier 3.0, source hl2 (original defaults).
- Risk check: VIX symbol CBOE:VIX, 200-bar average, 15% drawdown limit, 2 warnings needed.
- Keep 30% on a down-flip (set 0 for classic all-in/all-out). ADX 14, minimum 15.
- Backtest start: 2000.
STRATEGY PROPERTIES USED FOR THE REPORT
- Initial capital 10,000. Long only. Position size 0%, 30% or 100% of equity. No leverage.
- Commission 0.02% per order, slippage 2 ticks.
- Orders fill at the next bar's open.
- Daily ETFs trade rarely, so the test runs from 2000 to get more than 100 trades.
HONEST RESULTS
In my own test on daily QQQ and SPY (2010-2026, with costs), the strategy earned much less than buy-and-hold on both. On QQQ it had a smaller max drawdown than buy-and-hold and did better than plain SuperTrend. On SPY it did not beat plain SuperTrend, and it fell about as much as buy-and-hold in 2022. Treat it as a drawdown-control tool, not a way to beat the index. Results change a lot with the symbol, period and settings.
NOTES AND LIMITS
- Made for daily charts of liquid US indexes and ETFs. The VIX warning is US-specific, so turn it off for other markets.
- SuperTrend lags by design. Gaps can make fills worse than the signal price.
CREDIT
SuperTrend is a classic ATR indicator by Olivier Seban. The band and trend-flip code is based on the open-source "SuperTrend" by KivancOzbilgic, who credits everget for the signal style. Thank you. This is a Pine v6 strategy rewrite with new position logic and filters.
DISCLAIMER
For education only. This is not financial advice. Past results and backtests do not guarantee future results.
הערות שחרור
v1.1- Code cleanup: the ATR is now computed on every bar on its own line. Signals, orders and results are the same as before.
- Checked: the stats table counts from the backtest start date across the full history. The strategy stays long-only and never opens a short.
- Reminder: past backtest results only. They are not a forecast and not financial advice.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.