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Seasonality Calculation & Statistics

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Seasonality Calculation & Statistics

  • The Seasonality Calculation & Statistics indicator is a quantitative tool designed to backtest, track, and visually analyze specific seasonal recurring calendar patterns across historical data directly on the daily timeframe

  • It eliminates guesswork by isolating user-defined date windows (e.g., May 1 to May 15), calculating historical performance metrics, projecting upcoming seasonal cycles, and providing detailed table dashboards


Key Features
  • Custom Seasonal Windows: Define exact start and end dates (Day/Month) and evaluate both Long and Short seasonal directions

  • Smart Vertical Timeline Markers: Clean visual boundaries marking every historical cycle and projecting upcoming future opportunities

  • Shifted Exit Boundary for Visual Clarity: The vertical exit line is deliberately placed one trading day to the right ($t + 1$), cleanly enclosing the entire holding period so you can analyze every historical price bar inside the pattern without overlapping visual obstruction

  • Three Built-in Statistical Tables: Comprehensive performance summaries, year-by-year logs, and multi-period lookback comparisons

  • SQN & Risk Metrics: Real-time calculation of System Quality Number (SQN), Win Rate, Average Return, Average Profit, and Maximum/Average Drawdown


Visual Chart Elements
  • Entry Line & Label: A vertical line (default lime) placed on the entry candle close

  • Shifted Exit Line & Label: A vertical boundary line (default red) shifted one trading day to the right of the exit candle, framing the trade window perfectly for post-trade review

  • Result Badges: Clean floating labels displaying the percentage return and maximum intra-trade drawdown for each individual year

  • Future Projections: Forward-projected dashed lines plotted into empty chart space to highlight when the next seasonal window opens and closes


Dashboard Tables
1. Summary Table: Displays overall strategy performance across the entire selected backtest horizon

  • Direction (Long / Short)

  • Calendar Window & Trade Duration

  • Winning Trades ratio and Win Rate percentage

  • Average Return and Average Winning Trade Profit

  • Average Drawdown and Maximum Intra-trade Drawdown

  • System Quality Number (SQN) to evaluate statistical edge


2. Yearly Table: Provides a granular, year-by-year historical audit containing
  • Specific trading cycle year

  • Executed start and end dates

  • Trade Return (%)

  • Trade Maximum Drawdown (%)


3. Period Summary Table: Breaks down win rates across customizable historical segments (e.g., last 3, 5, 10, or 15 years) to help identify if a seasonal pattern is strengthening, decaying, or completely cooked in modern market regime

How to Use
  • Apply the indicator to any asset on the Daily (1D) timeframe

  • Set your desired seasonal window via Start Day / Start Month and End Day / End Month

  • Select Long or Short bias

  • Adjust the lookback starting years to focus on specific economic cycles

  • Use the projected lines to prepare for upcoming seasonal setups ahead of time

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