OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
VolEdge: Regime Clock
VOLEDGE: REGIME CLOCK — How long can vol regime last?
Every premium seller has the same question during calm markets: "How much longer can low vol last?" Every trader caught in a VIX spike asks: "When does this end?"
This indicator gives you data-driven answers to both questions.
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WHAT IT DOES
Counts consecutive trading days in the current volatility regime and compares that duration against historical benchmarks from 35+ years of VIX data (1990–2025).
The output:
"Day 47 of Low Vol. AGING phase. 72% of periods this long resolve within 10 trading days."
The duration meter shifts from green to yellow to orange to red as the regime exceeds its historical median, 75th percentile, and 90th percentile duration.
Four duration phases:
GREEN — YOUNG: below median duration, regime is fresh, no urgency
YELLOW — AGING: at or above median, regime is maturing, start monitoring
ORANGE — EXTENDED: above 75th percentile, elevated probability of transition
RED — EXTREME: above 90th percentile, historically rare, prepare for regime change
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WHY DURATION MATTERS
Volatility clusters. Low vol begets low vol — until it doesn't. This has been one of the most robust findings in financial research since Mandelbrot's 1963 observation that "large changes follow large changes."
GARCH models confirm that volatility persistence parameters for equities typically hit 0.99, meaning regimes are highly persistent. But they also mean-revert. The longer a regime has persisted, the more statistical weight shifts toward a transition.
Published research on VIX mean reversion (Harbourfront Technologies, 1990–2017) found that after a 6% VIX spike in a high-vol regime, there is approximately a 73% probability of reversion within 20 days. In low-vol regimes, VIX spike reversion probability drops to about 61%. IG Markets research identified a composite vol cycle of roughly 100 days build-up, a spike, then 100 days of normalization — an asymmetric pattern that traders intuitively sense but have no tool to track.
This indicator turns that research into a live countdown on your chart.
Historical duration benchmarks hardcoded from CBOE VIX daily close data:
Low Vol regime (VIX below 15):
Median duration: approximately 35 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 65 days
90th percentile: approximately 110 days
Normal regime (VIX 15–20):
Median: approximately 25 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 50 days
90th percentile: approximately 80 days
Elevated regime (VIX 20–30):
Median: approximately 15 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 30 days
90th percentile: approximately 55 days
Crisis regime (VIX above 30):
Median: approximately 8 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 15 days
90th percentile: approximately 25 days
Key insight: Crisis regimes are short and violent. Low vol regimes can stretch for months but become increasingly fragile the longer they persist.
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HOW TO USE IT — BY TRADER TYPE
Premium sellers:
When the clock is GREEN (young regime), your current strategy is fine. No adjustments needed.
When it turns YELLOW (aging), start paying closer attention to VVIX and term structure for early transition signals. Consider tightening new positions slightly.
When it turns ORANGE (extended), reduce size on new positions. An extended low-vol regime means you have been collecting thin premiums for a while and the probability of a spike is growing. This is not the time to add aggressive short vol positions.
When it turns RED (extreme), you should be at minimum position size. The statistical case for a transition is strong. If you are short vol, this is the time to take profits, tighten stops, or hedge.
Swing and directional traders:
Extended low-vol regimes often precede sharp moves in either direction. When the clock turns orange or red during low vol, consider reducing leveraged positions or adding protective options.
Extended crisis regimes (rare — above 90th percentile) are historically some of the best mean-reversion buying opportunities for equities. But timing the exact bottom requires more signals than duration alone.
Vol traders:
Regime extensions above the 90th percentile are high-probability mean reversion setups. If low vol has persisted for 100+ days, long vol positions (VIX calls, long straddles, UVXY) have favorable asymmetry. If crisis has persisted for 20+ days, short vol positions have favorable asymmetry — but size conservatively because the tail risk in crisis is enormous.
Risk managers:
Use the duration percentile as a direct input to position sizing. A simple rule: reduce maximum position size by 10% for each phase beyond YOUNG. Normal size in YOUNG, 90% in AGING, 80% in EXTENDED, 70% in EXTREME.
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WHAT IS ON THE DASHBOARD
Row 1 — Regime badge: current regime with color-coded background (same classification as the VolEdge Vol Weather Report)
Row 2 — Duration: "Day 47" in large text. This is the headline number.
Row 3 — Duration meter: a visual progress bar that fills as the regime ages, colored by phase
Row 4 — Phase label: YOUNG / AGING / EXTENDED / EXTREME with the median, 75th, and 90th percentile benchmarks for the current regime
Row 5 — Resolution probability: estimated percentage of historical regimes at this duration that resolved within 10 trading days
Row 6 — Key data: VIX level and VIX/VIX3M ratio (compact reference)
Row 7 — Context sentence: plain-language interpretation that adapts to the current phase
Row 8 — Regime history strip: last 3 regime periods with their durations, showing the recent pattern
Chart background gets a subtle orange or red tint when the duration enters EXTENDED or EXTREME phase.
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HOW THE REGIME IS CLASSIFIED
This indicator uses the same weighted composite scoring as the VolEdge Vol Weather Report:
VIX spot level: 40% weight
VVIX (volatility of VIX): 30% weight
VIX/VIX3M ratio (term structure proxy): 30% weight
Composite score 0–25 = Low, 25–50 = Normal, 50–75 = Elevated, 75–100 = Crisis
If you use both the Vol Weather Report and the Regime Clock, they will always agree on the current regime because they use identical classification logic.
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RESOLUTION PROBABILITY — A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY
The "X% resolve within 10 days" probability is calculated from a simplified interpolation of historical VIX regime durations. It is directionally accurate — longer durations do correlate with higher transition probabilities — but the exact percentages are approximations, not precise statistical outputs.
The numbers are derived from published VIX mean reversion research and approximate survival curves for each regime. They should be used as context, not as precise predictions.
If you are a quantitative trader and want exact numbers, download the CBOE VIX daily close CSV and calculate your own survival distributions. I may update these benchmarks with more precise values in future versions.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
SETTINGS
Table position: choose where the panel appears on your chart
Text size: Small / Normal / Large
Show regime history strip: toggle the historical regime sequence on or off
Show resolution probability: toggle the probability callout on or off
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ALERTS
Regime Change — fires when the regime transitions in any direction
Duration Hit Median — fires when the current regime reaches its historical median duration
Extended Regime (75th percentile) — fires when duration exceeds the 75th percentile for the current regime type
Extreme Extension (90th percentile) — fires when duration exceeds the 90th percentile
Entered Crisis — fires specifically when the market enters Crisis regime
Exited Crisis — fires when the market leaves Crisis regime
To set up: click the Alerts button on your chart, select this indicator, and choose the condition.
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WHAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT
There are over a dozen volatility regime classifiers on TradingView. Every one of them classifies the current state — high vol, low vol, compression, expansion. None of them measure how long that state has persisted or what duration implies about what comes next.
This is the only indicator on TradingView that:
— Counts consecutive days in each regime
— Compares current duration against 35 years of historical VIX data
— Classifies duration into phases (young, aging, extended, extreme)
— Provides a resolution probability estimate
— Tracks regime history so you can see the recent pattern
The concept is academically grounded but has never been productized as a live trading tool. "Day X of Low Vol" is a framing that is instantly intuitive and answers the question every premium seller asks during calm markets.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
It is not a timing signal. "Extended regime" does not mean "the regime ends tomorrow." Regimes can persist well beyond the 90th percentile — they just rarely do.
It is not a substitute for analyzing the specific catalyst environment. A low-vol regime that is extended during a period of Fed tightening uncertainty is different from one during a goldilocks macro environment.
It is not financial advice. It is an analytical framework that adds a dimension — time — to your volatility analysis.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
PART OF THE VOLEDGE SUITE
This is indicator 2 of 9 in the VolEdge volatility toolkit.
Free indicators:
Vol Weather Report — multi-factor regime classification with strategy context
Regime Clock (this one) — duration tracking with historical benchmarks
VRP Gauge — is option premium rich or thin right now? (coming soon)
0DTE Vol Context — is today an expansion day or a theta-burn day? (coming soon)
VVIX Ratio Percentile — the most underused signal in vol trading (coming soon)
Selling Bias Compass — should you sell puts or calls today? (coming soon)
Paid (VolEdge Pro Suite):
Naked Seller Risk Score — per-ticker 0–100 safety score (coming soon)
Options Timing Dashboard — strategy recommendation for any stock (coming soon)
Earnings Vol Analyzer — IV crush prediction with historical data (coming soon)
Follow VolEdge to get notified when new indicators launch.
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DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for any trading decision. Historical duration benchmarks are approximations derived from published research and may not perfectly reflect future regime behavior. Past patterns in volatility regimes do not guarantee future results. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Every premium seller has the same question during calm markets: "How much longer can low vol last?" Every trader caught in a VIX spike asks: "When does this end?"
This indicator gives you data-driven answers to both questions.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT IT DOES
Counts consecutive trading days in the current volatility regime and compares that duration against historical benchmarks from 35+ years of VIX data (1990–2025).
The output:
"Day 47 of Low Vol. AGING phase. 72% of periods this long resolve within 10 trading days."
The duration meter shifts from green to yellow to orange to red as the regime exceeds its historical median, 75th percentile, and 90th percentile duration.
Four duration phases:
GREEN — YOUNG: below median duration, regime is fresh, no urgency
YELLOW — AGING: at or above median, regime is maturing, start monitoring
ORANGE — EXTENDED: above 75th percentile, elevated probability of transition
RED — EXTREME: above 90th percentile, historically rare, prepare for regime change
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHY DURATION MATTERS
Volatility clusters. Low vol begets low vol — until it doesn't. This has been one of the most robust findings in financial research since Mandelbrot's 1963 observation that "large changes follow large changes."
GARCH models confirm that volatility persistence parameters for equities typically hit 0.99, meaning regimes are highly persistent. But they also mean-revert. The longer a regime has persisted, the more statistical weight shifts toward a transition.
Published research on VIX mean reversion (Harbourfront Technologies, 1990–2017) found that after a 6% VIX spike in a high-vol regime, there is approximately a 73% probability of reversion within 20 days. In low-vol regimes, VIX spike reversion probability drops to about 61%. IG Markets research identified a composite vol cycle of roughly 100 days build-up, a spike, then 100 days of normalization — an asymmetric pattern that traders intuitively sense but have no tool to track.
This indicator turns that research into a live countdown on your chart.
Historical duration benchmarks hardcoded from CBOE VIX daily close data:
Low Vol regime (VIX below 15):
Median duration: approximately 35 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 65 days
90th percentile: approximately 110 days
Normal regime (VIX 15–20):
Median: approximately 25 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 50 days
90th percentile: approximately 80 days
Elevated regime (VIX 20–30):
Median: approximately 15 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 30 days
90th percentile: approximately 55 days
Crisis regime (VIX above 30):
Median: approximately 8 trading days
75th percentile: approximately 15 days
90th percentile: approximately 25 days
Key insight: Crisis regimes are short and violent. Low vol regimes can stretch for months but become increasingly fragile the longer they persist.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
HOW TO USE IT — BY TRADER TYPE
Premium sellers:
When the clock is GREEN (young regime), your current strategy is fine. No adjustments needed.
When it turns YELLOW (aging), start paying closer attention to VVIX and term structure for early transition signals. Consider tightening new positions slightly.
When it turns ORANGE (extended), reduce size on new positions. An extended low-vol regime means you have been collecting thin premiums for a while and the probability of a spike is growing. This is not the time to add aggressive short vol positions.
When it turns RED (extreme), you should be at minimum position size. The statistical case for a transition is strong. If you are short vol, this is the time to take profits, tighten stops, or hedge.
Swing and directional traders:
Extended low-vol regimes often precede sharp moves in either direction. When the clock turns orange or red during low vol, consider reducing leveraged positions or adding protective options.
Extended crisis regimes (rare — above 90th percentile) are historically some of the best mean-reversion buying opportunities for equities. But timing the exact bottom requires more signals than duration alone.
Vol traders:
Regime extensions above the 90th percentile are high-probability mean reversion setups. If low vol has persisted for 100+ days, long vol positions (VIX calls, long straddles, UVXY) have favorable asymmetry. If crisis has persisted for 20+ days, short vol positions have favorable asymmetry — but size conservatively because the tail risk in crisis is enormous.
Risk managers:
Use the duration percentile as a direct input to position sizing. A simple rule: reduce maximum position size by 10% for each phase beyond YOUNG. Normal size in YOUNG, 90% in AGING, 80% in EXTENDED, 70% in EXTREME.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT IS ON THE DASHBOARD
Row 1 — Regime badge: current regime with color-coded background (same classification as the VolEdge Vol Weather Report)
Row 2 — Duration: "Day 47" in large text. This is the headline number.
Row 3 — Duration meter: a visual progress bar that fills as the regime ages, colored by phase
Row 4 — Phase label: YOUNG / AGING / EXTENDED / EXTREME with the median, 75th, and 90th percentile benchmarks for the current regime
Row 5 — Resolution probability: estimated percentage of historical regimes at this duration that resolved within 10 trading days
Row 6 — Key data: VIX level and VIX/VIX3M ratio (compact reference)
Row 7 — Context sentence: plain-language interpretation that adapts to the current phase
Row 8 — Regime history strip: last 3 regime periods with their durations, showing the recent pattern
Chart background gets a subtle orange or red tint when the duration enters EXTENDED or EXTREME phase.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
HOW THE REGIME IS CLASSIFIED
This indicator uses the same weighted composite scoring as the VolEdge Vol Weather Report:
VIX spot level: 40% weight
VVIX (volatility of VIX): 30% weight
VIX/VIX3M ratio (term structure proxy): 30% weight
Composite score 0–25 = Low, 25–50 = Normal, 50–75 = Elevated, 75–100 = Crisis
If you use both the Vol Weather Report and the Regime Clock, they will always agree on the current regime because they use identical classification logic.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
RESOLUTION PROBABILITY — A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY
The "X% resolve within 10 days" probability is calculated from a simplified interpolation of historical VIX regime durations. It is directionally accurate — longer durations do correlate with higher transition probabilities — but the exact percentages are approximations, not precise statistical outputs.
The numbers are derived from published VIX mean reversion research and approximate survival curves for each regime. They should be used as context, not as precise predictions.
If you are a quantitative trader and want exact numbers, download the CBOE VIX daily close CSV and calculate your own survival distributions. I may update these benchmarks with more precise values in future versions.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
SETTINGS
Table position: choose where the panel appears on your chart
Text size: Small / Normal / Large
Show regime history strip: toggle the historical regime sequence on or off
Show resolution probability: toggle the probability callout on or off
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ALERTS
Regime Change — fires when the regime transitions in any direction
Duration Hit Median — fires when the current regime reaches its historical median duration
Extended Regime (75th percentile) — fires when duration exceeds the 75th percentile for the current regime type
Extreme Extension (90th percentile) — fires when duration exceeds the 90th percentile
Entered Crisis — fires specifically when the market enters Crisis regime
Exited Crisis — fires when the market leaves Crisis regime
To set up: click the Alerts button on your chart, select this indicator, and choose the condition.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT
There are over a dozen volatility regime classifiers on TradingView. Every one of them classifies the current state — high vol, low vol, compression, expansion. None of them measure how long that state has persisted or what duration implies about what comes next.
This is the only indicator on TradingView that:
— Counts consecutive days in each regime
— Compares current duration against 35 years of historical VIX data
— Classifies duration into phases (young, aging, extended, extreme)
— Provides a resolution probability estimate
— Tracks regime history so you can see the recent pattern
The concept is academically grounded but has never been productized as a live trading tool. "Day X of Low Vol" is a framing that is instantly intuitive and answers the question every premium seller asks during calm markets.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
It is not a timing signal. "Extended regime" does not mean "the regime ends tomorrow." Regimes can persist well beyond the 90th percentile — they just rarely do.
It is not a substitute for analyzing the specific catalyst environment. A low-vol regime that is extended during a period of Fed tightening uncertainty is different from one during a goldilocks macro environment.
It is not financial advice. It is an analytical framework that adds a dimension — time — to your volatility analysis.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
PART OF THE VOLEDGE SUITE
This is indicator 2 of 9 in the VolEdge volatility toolkit.
Free indicators:
Vol Weather Report — multi-factor regime classification with strategy context
Regime Clock (this one) — duration tracking with historical benchmarks
VRP Gauge — is option premium rich or thin right now? (coming soon)
0DTE Vol Context — is today an expansion day or a theta-burn day? (coming soon)
VVIX Ratio Percentile — the most underused signal in vol trading (coming soon)
Selling Bias Compass — should you sell puts or calls today? (coming soon)
Paid (VolEdge Pro Suite):
Naked Seller Risk Score — per-ticker 0–100 safety score (coming soon)
Options Timing Dashboard — strategy recommendation for any stock (coming soon)
Earnings Vol Analyzer — IV crush prediction with historical data (coming soon)
Follow VolEdge to get notified when new indicators launch.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for any trading decision. Historical duration benchmarks are approximations derived from published research and may not perfectly reflect future regime behavior. Past patterns in volatility regimes do not guarantee future results. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
סקריפט קוד פתוח
ברוח האמיתית של TradingView, יוצר הסקריפט הזה הפך אותו לקוד פתוח, כך שסוחרים יוכלו לעיין בו ולאמת את פעולתו. כל הכבוד למחבר! אמנם ניתן להשתמש בו בחינם, אך זכור כי פרסום חוזר של הקוד כפוף ל־כללי הבית שלנו.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
סקריפט קוד פתוח
ברוח האמיתית של TradingView, יוצר הסקריפט הזה הפך אותו לקוד פתוח, כך שסוחרים יוכלו לעיין בו ולאמת את פעולתו. כל הכבוד למחבר! אמנם ניתן להשתמש בו בחינם, אך זכור כי פרסום חוזר של הקוד כפוף ל־כללי הבית שלנו.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.