1. Trend Assessment:
- The stock is in a "clear, well‑established downtrend".
- Every rally toward the EMA‑50 is "rejected", confirming sellers are in control.
- The EMA‑50 is sloping downward, which strengthens its role as resistance.
This is exactly the behavior you marked with the red arrows — each touch of the EMA‑50 results in a continuation of the downtrend.
2. EMA‑50 Trading Logic (Daily Chart):
Bullish Entry Conditions (Buy Signals)
You only consider buying when the market shows "evidence of trend reversal", not before.
A. Breakout Entry Condition:
A "daily close above the EMA‑50" with a strong bullish candle.
Confirmation factors:
- Candle body > 60% of total range
- Volume above average
- EMA‑50 begins to flatten
Why it matters:
Because the stock has failed repeatedly at the EMA‑50, a clean breakout signals a **change of character (CHoCH)**.
B. Retest Entry:
After the breakout, price pulls back to retest the EMA‑50 and "holds above it".
This is the safest entry in a trend reversal.
3. Bearish Signals (Sell / Exit / Short):
A. Rejection at EMA‑50:
This is the dominant pattern in your chart.
Condition:
Price rallies into EMA‑50 → forms a rejection candle (shooting star, bearish engulfing, long upper wick).
Action:
- Exit long positions
- Enter short (if allowed)
- Expect continuation of the downtrend
B. Failed Breakout:
If price closes above EMA‑50 but **falls back below it**, this is a "bull trap".
Action:
Immediate exit — trend remains bearish.
4. When Does the Trend Actually Reverse?**
You need **all three**:
1. **Daily close above EMA‑50**
2. **Higher High**
3. **Higher Low**
Until these appear, every rally is just a **pullback inside a downtrend**.
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Executive Summary:
- EMA‑50 is acting as **strong dynamic resistance**.
- Every touch = rejection → continuation of downtrend.
- **No long positions** until a confirmed breakout above EMA‑50.
- Best long entry: **Breakout + Retest**.
- Trend reversal requires structural change, not just one candle.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.