📊 Technical Analysis (AUDUSD – Daily Timeframe)
AUDUSD is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal on the daily timeframe.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the larger wave 5 appears to have completed, suggesting the end of the impulsive structure and the beginning of a corrective phase. This increases the probability of a downside move.
At the same time, a regular bearish divergence is visible, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Price has also reached a key resistance zone, further supporting the bearish outlook.
🔻 Bearish Targets:
We expect a decline toward the following levels:
❌ Invalidation Level:
If price breaks above 0.72275, this analysis will be invalidated.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis (Supporting Bias)
From a fundamental standpoint, several factors support a bearish outlook for AUDUSD:
The Federal Reserve continues to maintain relatively tight monetary policy, supporting the strength of the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia has taken a more cautious approach toward further rate hikes, which can limit upside potential for the Australian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar is highly sensitive to commodity prices and China’s economic performance. Any slowdown in China can negatively impact AUD due to reduced demand for exports.
Broader risk-off sentiment in global markets tends to favor the USD over risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
📉 Conclusion:
Both technical structure (completed wave 5 + bearish divergence at resistance) and fundamental factors align, supporting a corrective bearish move toward the specified targets.
AUDUSD is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal on the daily timeframe.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the larger wave 5 appears to have completed, suggesting the end of the impulsive structure and the beginning of a corrective phase. This increases the probability of a downside move.
At the same time, a regular bearish divergence is visible, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Price has also reached a key resistance zone, further supporting the bearish outlook.
🔻 Bearish Targets:
We expect a decline toward the following levels:
- 0.68661
- 0.67728
- 0.66535
❌ Invalidation Level:
If price breaks above 0.72275, this analysis will be invalidated.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis (Supporting Bias)
From a fundamental standpoint, several factors support a bearish outlook for AUDUSD:
The Federal Reserve continues to maintain relatively tight monetary policy, supporting the strength of the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia has taken a more cautious approach toward further rate hikes, which can limit upside potential for the Australian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar is highly sensitive to commodity prices and China’s economic performance. Any slowdown in China can negatively impact AUD due to reduced demand for exports.
Broader risk-off sentiment in global markets tends to favor the USD over risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
📉 Conclusion:
Both technical structure (completed wave 5 + bearish divergence at resistance) and fundamental factors align, supporting a corrective bearish move toward the specified targets.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.