If we set emotions aside and look at the market through a pure trend-following lens, BTCUSD is currently in a state of “a rebound within a broader downtrend” rather than a genuine recovery. The recent price bounces are largely driven by short-covering after panic selling, not by a clear return of strong institutional capital. With market sentiment still cautious, every rally risks turning into an opportunity for distribution.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has completely broken its previous bullish base and has entered a clearly defined descending channel on H4. Price remains trapped below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that the dominant trend has not changed. The bounce from the lows has only produced a lower high, confirming that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control.
The 71,000–71,300 zone stands out as a critical price ceiling. This area is a confluence of the descending trendline and key technical resistance, where selling pressure is highly likely to emerge. If Bitcoin reaches this zone but fails to secure a decisive candle close above it, the probability strongly favors a renewed move to the downside.
In that scenario, the 62,800–63,000 region becomes a logical target for the next bearish leg—aligned with both technical structure and the risk-averse sentiment still dominating the crypto market. At this stage, fighting the trend by trying to catch a bottom carries significant risk, while selling into rallies remains the more disciplined strategy given the current market picture.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has completely broken its previous bullish base and has entered a clearly defined descending channel on H4. Price remains trapped below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that the dominant trend has not changed. The bounce from the lows has only produced a lower high, confirming that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control.
The 71,000–71,300 zone stands out as a critical price ceiling. This area is a confluence of the descending trendline and key technical resistance, where selling pressure is highly likely to emerge. If Bitcoin reaches this zone but fails to secure a decisive candle close above it, the probability strongly favors a renewed move to the downside.
In that scenario, the 62,800–63,000 region becomes a logical target for the next bearish leg—aligned with both technical structure and the risk-averse sentiment still dominating the crypto market. At this stage, fighting the trend by trying to catch a bottom carries significant risk, while selling into rallies remains the more disciplined strategy given the current market picture.
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LEVEL UP YOUR TRADING
👉t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Signals & setups to boost your edge
Free trading plans to follow
Real-time market insights
👉t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Signals & setups to boost your edge
Free trading plans to follow
Real-time market insights
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.