Hello traders,
BTC failed twice at the highs near $87,000, and the balance range below it also failed to hold. From the October 9 low, price developed an expanding structure inside a falling channel. The $84,800 pivot on October 21 swept the previous highs and was rejected hard, which confirmed sellers still control the larger structure.
Here is what caught my attention. After breaking the previous low near $79,750, price should have accelerated toward the median line of the channel. It did not. Price printed only a marginal lower low around $79,150 and reversed, so the move failed to reach the median line. When a breakdown has no follow-through, it often means sellers are running out of fuel.
Price then broke the small pink trendline and rallied into the upper edge of the channel around $81,600 to $81,800. This area has confluence: the channel boundary, a horizontal resistance and the previous lower high near $82,000. Price is sitting right under it.
Scenario 1: Rejection. Price gets rejected at the channel edge, makes a lower high and retests the $79,150 low. A strong break there opens the way to the lower part of the channel.
Scenario 2: Breakout. A solid 4H close above $82,000 breaks the channel and the last lower high. That would damage the bearish structure and open $82,800, then $84,000.
My plan: I am not chasing either side at resistance. I will wait for the reaction around $81,800 to $82,000 and let price show its hand first.
What is your view: does the channel hold as resistance, or is the bottom already in? Let me know in the comments.
Not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always manage your own risk.
BTC failed twice at the highs near $87,000, and the balance range below it also failed to hold. From the October 9 low, price developed an expanding structure inside a falling channel. The $84,800 pivot on October 21 swept the previous highs and was rejected hard, which confirmed sellers still control the larger structure.
Here is what caught my attention. After breaking the previous low near $79,750, price should have accelerated toward the median line of the channel. It did not. Price printed only a marginal lower low around $79,150 and reversed, so the move failed to reach the median line. When a breakdown has no follow-through, it often means sellers are running out of fuel.
Price then broke the small pink trendline and rallied into the upper edge of the channel around $81,600 to $81,800. This area has confluence: the channel boundary, a horizontal resistance and the previous lower high near $82,000. Price is sitting right under it.
Scenario 1: Rejection. Price gets rejected at the channel edge, makes a lower high and retests the $79,150 low. A strong break there opens the way to the lower part of the channel.
Scenario 2: Breakout. A solid 4H close above $82,000 breaks the channel and the last lower high. That would damage the bearish structure and open $82,800, then $84,000.
My plan: I am not chasing either side at resistance. I will wait for the reaction around $81,800 to $82,000 and let price show its hand first.
What is your view: does the channel hold as resistance, or is the bottom already in? Let me know in the comments.
Not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Always manage your own risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.