DAX has spent three sessions circling the same handful of points, and this morning's pre-open action is no different — price is sitting almost exactly on the 25,000 line it lost, reclaimed, and got rejected from twice already this week.
THREE DAYS, SAME LINE
FIRST TEST 25,000 — lost overnight Monday into Tuesday, reclaimed after-hours, rejected again at Tuesday's open, and now pinned right on it a third straight session.
MAKE-OR-BREAK 24,840 — held on a closing basis twice already this week (July 8 and July 14). Hasn't even been tested yet today.
RECLAIM 25,200 — the July 2 breakout shelf. Still untouched since it broke down; this is the level that kills the bearish case outright.
THE OVERNIGHT BACKDROP
US forces hit more than 80 Iranian military targets overnight, including over 60 IRGC boats in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of strikes that's kept WTI climbing toward $86 for a fourth straight day. None of it has been enough to actually break DAX out of this range — the index keeps absorbing the headlines instead of trending on them.
THE TRADE, IF IT COMES
Short: 1H close back below 25,000 → entry, stop above 25,200, target 24,840 first then 24,636.
No trade: 24,840–25,000. This pocket has faked out two bounces already this week — there's no edge inside it.
Bull invalidation: 1H close above 25,200 → the top-out call is dead, third time's the charm, stand aside.
NO SHAME IN STANDING ASIDE
Three days of chop at the same level isn't a setup, it's a warning that the range hasn't resolved yet. If 25,000 keeps absorbing sellers without cracking, that's information too — just not tradeable information until it actually breaks one way.
This is the same structure my daily DAX map (tradingview.com/chart/DE40/wfKYnm9C-DAX-Back-Above-25-000-After-a-1-060-Point-Dive/) has been tracking since the July 8 crash low. I will update this idea as the levels get tested.
THREE DAYS, SAME LINE
FIRST TEST 25,000 — lost overnight Monday into Tuesday, reclaimed after-hours, rejected again at Tuesday's open, and now pinned right on it a third straight session.
MAKE-OR-BREAK 24,840 — held on a closing basis twice already this week (July 8 and July 14). Hasn't even been tested yet today.
RECLAIM 25,200 — the July 2 breakout shelf. Still untouched since it broke down; this is the level that kills the bearish case outright.
THE OVERNIGHT BACKDROP
US forces hit more than 80 Iranian military targets overnight, including over 60 IRGC boats in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of strikes that's kept WTI climbing toward $86 for a fourth straight day. None of it has been enough to actually break DAX out of this range — the index keeps absorbing the headlines instead of trending on them.
THE TRADE, IF IT COMES
Short: 1H close back below 25,000 → entry, stop above 25,200, target 24,840 first then 24,636.
No trade: 24,840–25,000. This pocket has faked out two bounces already this week — there's no edge inside it.
Bull invalidation: 1H close above 25,200 → the top-out call is dead, third time's the charm, stand aside.
NO SHAME IN STANDING ASIDE
Three days of chop at the same level isn't a setup, it's a warning that the range hasn't resolved yet. If 25,000 keeps absorbing sellers without cracking, that's information too — just not tradeable information until it actually breaks one way.
This is the same structure my daily DAX map (tradingview.com/chart/DE40/wfKYnm9C-DAX-Back-Above-25-000-After-a-1-060-Point-Dive/) has been tracking since the July 8 crash low. I will update this idea as the levels get tested.
Note
Got its test today. DAX closed 24,849.6 (-0.56%, prev close 24,990.4) and the intraday low was 24,690.1 - a clean break through the 24,840 make-or-break, briefly trading in territory that held twice earlier this week. It didn't close there though - the session pulled back to settle just above the line.Lesson: a wick through a level and a close through a level tell different stories. Sellers proved they can push it there intraday - buyers proved they still show up by the close. 24,840 is a level worth respecting again, not a level that's broken.
Sweden based full time trader with +20y experience leading a unique trade & chill community on Discord. I trade 200x leverage with TradneNation and have a big focus on mental strategy- Surviving is how we win this game. Join us on Bazemtrader.com.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Sweden based full time trader with +20y experience leading a unique trade & chill community on Discord. I trade 200x leverage with TradneNation and have a big focus on mental strategy- Surviving is how we win this game. Join us on Bazemtrader.com.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.