6 years ago, Ethereum was preparing for one of its most important expansions against Bitcoin. Today, we are approaching another historical decision
In November 2020, ETH/BTC was recovering from years of weakness. The 0.045 region became a critical barrier before Ethereum eventually entered a powerful period of relative outperformance. What followed was one of the most significant capital rotations in crypto history
Now look at 2026. Ethereum has spent years losing ground against Bitcoin, while a descending resistance line originating in 2022 continues to define the larger trend. The ratio is trading near 0.030, around its 100 week moving (SMA) average, with the historical 0.044 to 0.046 midrange still waiting above. The first challenge is reclaiming the descending trendline. The real prize is breaking the historical midrange
And there is a psychological dimension worth remembering. After years of underperformance, investors have become accustomed to Ethereum being the weaker asset. Expectations have fallen, patience has disappeared, and the idea of another major ETH/BTC expansion sounds increasingly unrealistic
But capital rotation rarely begins when everyone is already expecting it. My long term thesis remains bullish. I believe ETH/BTC is approaching a potentially decisive turning point, although the breakout still needs to be established. Bitcoin has dominated the conversation for years. The next chapter may belong to Ethereum
ETHBTC
In November 2020, ETH/BTC was recovering from years of weakness. The 0.045 region became a critical barrier before Ethereum eventually entered a powerful period of relative outperformance. What followed was one of the most significant capital rotations in crypto history
Now look at 2026. Ethereum has spent years losing ground against Bitcoin, while a descending resistance line originating in 2022 continues to define the larger trend. The ratio is trading near 0.030, around its 100 week moving (SMA) average, with the historical 0.044 to 0.046 midrange still waiting above. The first challenge is reclaiming the descending trendline. The real prize is breaking the historical midrange
And there is a psychological dimension worth remembering. After years of underperformance, investors have become accustomed to Ethereum being the weaker asset. Expectations have fallen, patience has disappeared, and the idea of another major ETH/BTC expansion sounds increasingly unrealistic
But capital rotation rarely begins when everyone is already expecting it. My long term thesis remains bullish. I believe ETH/BTC is approaching a potentially decisive turning point, although the breakout still needs to be established. Bitcoin has dominated the conversation for years. The next chapter may belong to Ethereum
ETHBTC
Crypto Cycles | Fractals | Onchain | Macro | Market Psychology
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Crypto Cycles | Fractals | Onchain | Macro | Market Psychology
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Charts here. Daily cycle research on x.com/Cryptollica
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.