At the moment, EURGBP presents a fairly aligned picture across macro positioning, sentiment, and technical structure. Overall, the bias remains more constructively bullish than bearish.
I always start from positioning, as it represents the primary market context for me. According to the latest COT report, Non-Commercial traders continue to increase their long exposure on the Euro, while the British Pound shows a reduction in longs alongside an increase in short positions. This suggests that speculative flows are gradually favoring EUR over GBP, providing a structural foundation for further upside in the cross.
Adding to this, retail sentiment shows approximately 74% of traders currently positioned short on EURGBP. When positioning becomes this one-sided, I tend to interpret it from a contrarian perspective: markets often continue moving higher while the majority attempts to sell rallies. This is not a timing signal, but it strengthens the directional backdrop.
Seasonality also supports this view, as February historically tends to be a more positive period for EURGBP, adding another probabilistic factor in favor of bullish continuation.
From a technical standpoint, price reacted cleanly from the demand zone between 0.8638 and 0.8670, breaking the short-term bearish structure and exiting the descending channel. For me, this represents the first meaningful change in market character after several weeks of downside pressure.
As long as price holds above the 0.8700–0.8720 area, I continue to favor a buy-the-dip approach rather than looking for aggressive shorts.
Key levels I am monitoring:
0.8756 / 0.8760 → First acceptance zone. Sustained consolidation above this level increases continuation probability.
0.8785 – 0.8820 → Major supply and decision area where reactions and potential slowdown are expected.
0.8830 – 0.8870 → Upper target zone where profit-taking may become more evident.
My preferred scenario is a controlled pullback toward 0.8720–0.8700, followed by support holding and continuation higher. Alternatively, a breakout above 0.8756 with a confirmed retest could open the path toward the 0.88 region.
Bullish invalidation would come from a decisive loss of 0.8700, and especially a break below 0.8685–0.8670, which would weaken structure and increase the probability of a revisit to the 0.8638 demand area.
I always start from positioning, as it represents the primary market context for me. According to the latest COT report, Non-Commercial traders continue to increase their long exposure on the Euro, while the British Pound shows a reduction in longs alongside an increase in short positions. This suggests that speculative flows are gradually favoring EUR over GBP, providing a structural foundation for further upside in the cross.
Adding to this, retail sentiment shows approximately 74% of traders currently positioned short on EURGBP. When positioning becomes this one-sided, I tend to interpret it from a contrarian perspective: markets often continue moving higher while the majority attempts to sell rallies. This is not a timing signal, but it strengthens the directional backdrop.
Seasonality also supports this view, as February historically tends to be a more positive period for EURGBP, adding another probabilistic factor in favor of bullish continuation.
From a technical standpoint, price reacted cleanly from the demand zone between 0.8638 and 0.8670, breaking the short-term bearish structure and exiting the descending channel. For me, this represents the first meaningful change in market character after several weeks of downside pressure.
As long as price holds above the 0.8700–0.8720 area, I continue to favor a buy-the-dip approach rather than looking for aggressive shorts.
Key levels I am monitoring:
0.8756 / 0.8760 → First acceptance zone. Sustained consolidation above this level increases continuation probability.
0.8785 – 0.8820 → Major supply and decision area where reactions and potential slowdown are expected.
0.8830 – 0.8870 → Upper target zone where profit-taking may become more evident.
My preferred scenario is a controlled pullback toward 0.8720–0.8700, followed by support holding and continuation higher. Alternatively, a breakout above 0.8756 with a confirmed retest could open the path toward the 0.88 region.
Bullish invalidation would come from a decisive loss of 0.8700, and especially a break below 0.8685–0.8670, which would weaken structure and increase the probability of a revisit to the 0.8638 demand area.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.