Euro / U.S. Dollar

The Day Ahead

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Macro Data
PMIs (US, UK, Germany, France, Eurozone – September):
Key gauge for growth momentum. Markets will watch whether recent resilience in services persists and how deep the manufacturing downturn remains, especially in Germany.

US: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions → regional indicators of economic health.

US Q2 current account balance: Will offer a read on external balances, but less market-moving.

Central Banks
Fed: Powell, Bowman, Bostic all on the docket – Powell’s tone most market-sensitive, with investors parsing for hints on the pace of future cuts after last week’s “risk-management” move.

ECB: Muller, Kocher, Cipollone speaking – expected to reinforce cautious tone around weak Eurozone growth.

BoE: Pill speaking – could clarify how close the Bank is to easing amid UK growth headwinds.

Riksbank decision: Likely steady policy, but guidance on timing of cuts in focus.

Earnings
Micron (MU): A key read for global semiconductors, AI demand, and tech cycle sentiment.

Auctions
US 2-year Notes: Closely watched given shifting Fed rate expectations; outcome may influence front-end yields and curve pricing.

Market Impact:

PMIs will set the tone for risk assets in Europe and the US, especially around growth-sensitive sectors.

Central bank speakers could add volatility in bonds and FX, particularly if Powell or Pill signal a firmer policy stance.

Micron earnings after the close may drive tech sentiment, particularly in semis.

Treasury auction results could influence USD funding and short-end rate pricing.

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