Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the main structure still favours sellers while price trades below the higher EMA resistance zone. Any recovery should be viewed as a corrective pullback unless EURUSD can reclaim the main sell zone with strong confirmation.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, EURUSD is still moving in a bearish structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain positioned above the key recovery area, showing that the main trend is still controlled by sellers.
Price is currently around 1.1417 after a short-term rebound from the lower area. However, this recovery is moving toward the Fibonacci value zone, where sellers may look for continuation entries.
The first reaction zone is around 1.1435 - 1.1440, where price has already tested the Fibonacci area. The stronger sell zone is around 1.1458 - 1.1474, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement, previous structure, and EMA resistance.
If price reaches this sell zone and rejects, the bearish continuation scenario remains valid. The main downside target is the Fibonacci extension zone around 1.1297.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1417
Fibonacci reaction zone: 1.1435 - 1.1440
Main sell price zone: 1.1458 - 1.1474
EMA resistance area: 1.1474 - 1.1490
Short-term support: 1.1390 - 1.1360
Fibonacci target: 1.1297
Invalidation area: above 1.1490
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1458 - 1.1474
Stop Loss: 1.1490
Take Profit 1: 1.1390
Take Profit 2: 1.1360
Take Profit 3: 1.1297
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to recover into the 1.1458 - 1.1474 sell zone. This area is important because it combines Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, and previous bearish structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 1.1390, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 1.1360, followed by the Fibonacci target around 1.1297.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1390 - 1.1400
Stop Loss: 1.1360
Take Profit 1: 1.1435
Take Profit 2: 1.1458
Take Profit 3: 1.1474
Buy Condition
This is only a short-term corrective bounce setup, not the main trend view. A buy setup is valid only if EURUSD holds above 1.1390 and forms clear bullish rejection.
If price fails to hold this area, the bounce setup is invalid and sellers may push directly toward the Fibonacci target zone.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.1458 - 1.1474.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell aggressively at the low without a pullback.
A break below 1.1390 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1490, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while EURUSD trades below the EMA resistance structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into the Fibonacci value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1390, 1.1360, and the Fibonacci target around 1.1297.
Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the Fibonacci value zone first?
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Active Sell +60pips 
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.