From both a technical and fundamental perspective, EURUSD still does not give me enough reason to turn bullish. On the H4 chart, the broader structure remains bearish, with price moving inside a descending channel and continuing to form lower highs. Fundamentally, although the US dollar has lost some momentum as expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike in October have eased, the euro still lacks a strong catalyst of its own.
On the European side, concerns surrounding French fiscal conditions and political uncertainty remain a weakness for the euro. This creates an interesting balance: the dollar is no longer as strong as it was, but the euro has not been strong enough to turn that USD weakness into a convincing bullish trend. That is why I remain cautious about chasing the current recovery.
The H4 chart tells a similar story. EURUSD has bounced well from the 1.1140–1.1170 area, showing that buyers are still willing to defend the lows. However, this recovery has yet to break the sequence of lower highs, and price remains contained within the broader descending channel.
More importantly, 1.1280–1.1310 is now directly ahead, where nearby resistance meets the upper boundary of the channel and the Ichimoku area. For me, this is the real test. A recovery can look strong before reaching resistance; what matters is whether buyers can maintain that momentum once price enters an area where sellers have a clearer advantage.
For now, I still lean slightly bearish rather than expecting an immediate bullish reversal.
My preferred scenario is a test of 1.1280–1.1310, followed by renewed selling pressure.
If buyers fail to push through this area, 1.1150 becomes the next zone I expect EURUSD to revisit.
Overall, the current move still looks more like a recovery within a bearish structure than the beginning of a new uptrend.
On the European side, concerns surrounding French fiscal conditions and political uncertainty remain a weakness for the euro. This creates an interesting balance: the dollar is no longer as strong as it was, but the euro has not been strong enough to turn that USD weakness into a convincing bullish trend. That is why I remain cautious about chasing the current recovery.
The H4 chart tells a similar story. EURUSD has bounced well from the 1.1140–1.1170 area, showing that buyers are still willing to defend the lows. However, this recovery has yet to break the sequence of lower highs, and price remains contained within the broader descending channel.
More importantly, 1.1280–1.1310 is now directly ahead, where nearby resistance meets the upper boundary of the channel and the Ichimoku area. For me, this is the real test. A recovery can look strong before reaching resistance; what matters is whether buyers can maintain that momentum once price enters an area where sellers have a clearer advantage.
For now, I still lean slightly bearish rather than expecting an immediate bullish reversal.
My preferred scenario is a test of 1.1280–1.1310, followed by renewed selling pressure.
If buyers fail to push through this area, 1.1150 becomes the next zone I expect EURUSD to revisit.
Overall, the current move still looks more like a recovery within a bearish structure than the beginning of a new uptrend.
Trade closed: target reached
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Signals & setups to boost your edge
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👉t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Signals & setups to boost your edge
Free trading plans to follow
Real-time market insights
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.