EUR/USD capitalized on a volatile opening week by recording a significant bullish gap.
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Thin Liquidity Push-and-Pull
Global sentiment is currently shifting rapidly toward risk-on, but is being hampered by quiet market conditions:
- ⚡60-Day Ceasefire Framework: A report from Axios regarding the potential signing of an interim peace deal between the US and Iran that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the main trigger for the plunge in crude oil prices.
- ⚡US Bond Yields Plunge: Falling upstream inflation expectations dragged US Treasury yields sharply lower. This decline was exacerbated by relatively thin market liquidity as several global financial centers were closed for a bank holiday.
- ⚡Hawkish Fed Anchor: Although the dollar took a hit today, the currency's decline is projected to be contained. Investors are aware that President Trump is maintaining a full maritime blockade until the official document is signed, and the Fed is maintaining a hawkish bias for the remainder of 2026.
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✅ Technical Analysis: Momentum Improves Above the 23.6% Fibonacci
Technically, the EUR/USD short-term chart structure is starting to show signs of a constructive recovery:
- ⚡Intraday Resistance (1.1675 - 1.1680): The 38.2% Fibonacci level that will be the first test of the continuation of this rally.
- ⚡Upper Limit (1.1710): The convergence between the 200-period SMA on the H4 chart and the 50% Fibonacci. This area is projected to limit the short-term bullish bias unless a formal peace document is signed.
- ⚡Key Support (1.1638): Failure to hold this level will trigger a gap-closing back to the 1.1574 area (a bearish structural anchor).
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✅ Fundamental Dynamics: Thin Liquidity Push-and-Pull
Global sentiment is currently shifting rapidly toward risk-on, but is being hampered by quiet market conditions:
- ⚡60-Day Ceasefire Framework: A report from Axios regarding the potential signing of an interim peace deal between the US and Iran that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the main trigger for the plunge in crude oil prices.
- ⚡US Bond Yields Plunge: Falling upstream inflation expectations dragged US Treasury yields sharply lower. This decline was exacerbated by relatively thin market liquidity as several global financial centers were closed for a bank holiday.
- ⚡Hawkish Fed Anchor: Although the dollar took a hit today, the currency's decline is projected to be contained. Investors are aware that President Trump is maintaining a full maritime blockade until the official document is signed, and the Fed is maintaining a hawkish bias for the remainder of 2026.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Technical Analysis: Momentum Improves Above the 23.6% Fibonacci
Technically, the EUR/USD short-term chart structure is starting to show signs of a constructive recovery:
- ⚡Intraday Resistance (1.1675 - 1.1680): The 38.2% Fibonacci level that will be the first test of the continuation of this rally.
- ⚡Upper Limit (1.1710): The convergence between the 200-period SMA on the H4 chart and the 50% Fibonacci. This area is projected to limit the short-term bullish bias unless a formal peace document is signed.
- ⚡Key Support (1.1638): Failure to hold this level will trigger a gap-closing back to the 1.1574 area (a bearish structural anchor).
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.