EURUSD remains in a clear HTF downtrend. Price has reacted cleanly from the Daily Breaker + FVG + PWH confluence — a textbook IRL zone that has now shown its hand.
Here is what has played out and what I am watching next.
The reaction from the IRL was clean. We got a market structure shift followed by a 1H IFVG rejection confirming bearish intent.
Within yesterday's daily candle, a 4H FVG has printed — this is now the active POI I am watching for the next entry.
Daily candle profile expectation — Open High Low Close delivery. I am expecting London open to print the high of today's daily candle from this 4H FVG zone. That is my entry window.
Plan for today — watch for a reaction at the 4H FVG during London open. If price taps the zone and shows confirmation on the lower timeframe I will be looking short targeting the PML / ERL at 1.1576.
The narrative is simple — HTF downtrend delivering IRL to ERL. Daily Breaker + FVG + PWH has confirmed distribution. Now looking for the continuation lower.
Bias: Short
Entry zone: 4H FVG — London open reaction
Trigger: LTF confirmation at the POI
Target: PML / ERL 1.1576
Invalidation: 4H close above the Daily FVG + Breaker
Not financial advice — just my analysis.
Here is what has played out and what I am watching next.
The reaction from the IRL was clean. We got a market structure shift followed by a 1H IFVG rejection confirming bearish intent.
Within yesterday's daily candle, a 4H FVG has printed — this is now the active POI I am watching for the next entry.
Daily candle profile expectation — Open High Low Close delivery. I am expecting London open to print the high of today's daily candle from this 4H FVG zone. That is my entry window.
Plan for today — watch for a reaction at the 4H FVG during London open. If price taps the zone and shows confirmation on the lower timeframe I will be looking short targeting the PML / ERL at 1.1576.
The narrative is simple — HTF downtrend delivering IRL to ERL. Daily Breaker + FVG + PWH has confirmed distribution. Now looking for the continuation lower.
Bias: Short
Entry zone: 4H FVG — London open reaction
Trigger: LTF confirmation at the POI
Target: PML / ERL 1.1576
Invalidation: 4H close above the Daily FVG + Breaker
Not financial advice — just my analysis.
Trade closed: target reached
First ERL target reached as anticipated — price delivered from the Daily Breaker + FVG + PWH IRL zone directly to the PML ERL at 1.1576 exactly as mapped.Position was moved to breakeven after the first target was hit — price then reversed and stopped out at BE. Zero risk, target delivered.
The HTF narrative played out perfectly. IRL to ERL delivery confirmed. DXY strength supported the move throughout as outlined in the companion DXY analysis posted the same morning.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.